New Jersey goes Republican?

[hopper]

NJ-It will probably stay the same as 2012(58-41%) or swing or trend dem very sightly

[hopper]

A new YouGov poll just came out with Hillary winning New Jersey with +15%.    It's 49% Hillary to 34% Trump.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/nj/new_jersey_trump_vs_clinton-5872.html

49% is a little low for a Dem Presidential General Election Nominee. Obama got 57% in 2008 and 58% in 2012 in New Jersey. Still the margin of 15 points of the YouGov Poll is in line with Obama's 15 point margin in 2008 and his 17 point margin in 2012 in NJ.

[hopper]

Yes, I know many will laugh at me. I'm kinda new here, but I think if Trump plays his cards right he could win the state of New Jersey. It was actually considered a toss up state in '04, so I don't see why it can't be a toss up state this election. Plus the latest quinnipiac poll, shows Clinton only up 7, and thats REALLY bad for her. since Obama carried the state by 18 points.

imo His chance of winning

OR=ME-2 >= MN >= WA >= CT=ME(Statewide) >= ME1 >= NJ > NY=CA

in NJ, Minorities(33-34% voters share) support for TRUMP is lower than Other states.
Especially Blacks, He often gets 2-3%ish in Polls. Latinos around 20%ish,Asians under 30%ish.

Republican voters shares in NJ: only 19.5%(June,2016) so can't expect turnouts matter much.[/b]

I think CT is playable for TRUMP, But NJ it would be very hard.

McCain got 22% of the Latino Vote in 2008 in NJ according to a Pew Research Poll I read a few years back.

McCain got 8% of the Black Vote in 2008, and Romney got 4% of the Black Vote in 2012 in NJ.

Most Voters in NJ don't register with a party but when you include "leaners" like in the year end Gallup Poll of 2015 Dems have a 10 point advantage. Just look at the "States Of The States" in "Gallup".

[hopper]

Yes, I know many will laugh at me. I'm kinda new here, but I think if Trump plays his cards right he could win the state of New Jersey. It was actually considered a toss up state in '04, so I don't see why it can't be a toss up state this election. Plus the latest quinnipiac poll, shows Clinton only up 7, and thats REALLY bad for her. since Obama carried the state by 18 points.

imo His chance of winning

OR=ME-2 >= MN >= WA >= CT=ME(Statewide) >= ME1 >= NJ > NY=CA

in NJ, Minorities(33-34% voters share) support for TRUMP is lower than Other states.
Especially Blacks, He often gets 2-3%ish in Polls. Latinos around 20%ish,Asians under 30%ish.

Republican voters shares in NJ: only 19.5%(June,2016) so can't expect turnouts matter much.[/b]

I think CT is playable for TRUMP, But NJ it would be very hard.

McCain got 22% of the Latino Vote in 2008 in NJ according to a Pew Research Poll I read a few years back.

McCain got 8% of the Black Vote in 2008, and Romney got 4% of the Black Vote in 2012 in NJ.

Most Voters in NJ don't register with a party but when you include "leaners" like in the year end Gallup Poll of 2015 Dems have a 10 point advantage. Just look at the "States Of The States" in "Gallup".

ummmm Republican 19.5% source is this

 Party Affiliation Statistics in NJ. April,30,2016

http://www.njelections.org/2016-results/2016-05-voter-registration-by-congressional-district.pdf

Total : 5.50 Mil

DEM: 1.77 Mil / 5.50 Mil = 32.2% | REP: 1.077 Mil / 5.50 Mil = 19.5%

Indpendent: 2.65 Mil / 5.50 Mil = 48.2%

Well 12 point advantage for the Dems in the survey numbers that you posted from njelections.org. It was a 10 point advantage in Gallup for the end of year "2015 State of the States" survey. So it looks like those 48% of Indies break fairly even between both parties.