New Jersey goes Republican?

[Xing]

The fact that this election might be "unpredictable" doesn't mean that literally any result is possible. NJ is not going for Trump under any circumstances. You can quote me on that.

[LANDSLIDE REAGAN]

The whole electoral model; has been turned on its head; as a student in politics,it has become very obvious from the perspective of a Democratic voter, that Hillary is on the wrong side of history; she is unable to essentially close the deal and her hopes of being able to define Trump will become apparent as the election battle is joined; you only have to see how the "establishment" candidates to perform in the primaries, to full understand how Hillary is not in a very good position. Her resume and brand name suggests on casual examination that as a contender she should have enormous advantages. I think New Jersey could go Republican this fall; which is a shocking and troubling.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

The whole electoral model; has been turned on its head; as a student in politics,it has become very obvious from the perspective of a Democratic voter, that Hillary is on the wrong side of history; she is unable to essentially close the deal and her hopes of being able to define Trump will become apparent as the election battle is joined; you only have to see how the "establishment" candidates to perform in the primaries, to full understand how Hillary is not in a very good position. Her resume and brand name suggests on casual examination that as a contender she should have enormous advantages. I think New Jersey could go Republican this fall; which is a shocking and troubling.

Landslide Lyndon sock?

[You don't see any blue avatars now]

The whole electoral model; has been turned on its head; as a student in politics,it has become very obvious from the perspective of a Democratic voter, that Hillary is on the wrong side of history; she is unable to essentially close the deal and her hopes of being able to define Trump will become apparent as the election battle is joined; you only have to see how the "establishment" candidates to perform in the primaries, to full understand how Hillary is not in a very good position. Her resume and brand name suggests on casual examination that as a contender she should have enormous advantages. I think New Jersey could go Republican this fall; which is a shocking and troubling.

Landslide Lyndon sock?

That's what I thought, but I was afraid to suggest it.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

The whole electoral model; has been turned on its head; as a student in politics,it has become very obvious from the perspective of a Democratic voter, that Hillary is on the wrong side of history; she is unable to essentially close the deal and her hopes of being able to define Trump will become apparent as the election battle is joined; you only have to see how the "establishment" candidates to perform in the primaries, to full understand how Hillary is not in a very good position. Her resume and brand name suggests on casual examination that as a contender she should have enormous advantages. I think New Jersey could go Republican this fall; which is a shocking and troubling.

Landslide Lyndon sock?

That's what I thought, but I was afraid to suggest it.

Assuming this really is Lyndon, you'd think he would know the rules by now...

[This account no longer in use.]

Personally, I think it's just a coincidence. Landslide Lyndon wouldn't dare support anyone besides Queen Hillary the Inevitable.

[Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck]

Sadly, I feel like Our Beautiful Nominee will struggle greatly with New Jerseyans.  We love a straight-talker, and poor Hillary has unfairly gotten a terrible stigma of being a flippity-floppity Washington Insider.  CURSE YOU, RUSH, YOU SCALLYWAG!!!  The highly respected Quinnipiac poll with Hilldawg only at 45% confirms it.  Trump will surely dispatch Chris Christie to the state to seal down the massive undecided vote with some real Jersey straight-talk.  If only we could see the light! 

A tragedy, really : (  to see a safe Democrat state go the way of Swing to Nasty Donald.  I feel as if we are doomed.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

The Cubs are 7 1/2 games ahead in first place.

this isn't the best sporting analogy that you could have used; with the team that the Cubs have they should be winning!  Leicester City winning the premier league however...

Murica.

Actually, I posed the question on Facebook back in December, of which was more likely to happen:
1. Trump wins the GOP nomination
2. Leicester City wins the Premier League

We all had a great laugh at the preposterousness of both.  My Liverpool supporter friends were like, "NO WAY the Foxes even finish top 4, and LFC is going to the Champions League! YNWA!!!!!"

LOL.

Screenshots or GTFO.

[IceSpear]

Nah, not enough coal mining white working class blue collar Reagan Democrats like me in NJ. The harpy will carry it, but TRUMP will still win in a landslide.

[This account no longer in use.]

Nah, not enough coal mining white working class blue collar Reagan Democrats like me in NJ. The harpy will carry it, but TRUMP will still win in a landslide.

You've just reached TNVolunteer levels of obsession. Never do that, regardless of what state it is.

[IceSpear]

Nah, not enough coal mining white working class blue collar Reagan Democrats like me in NJ. The harpy will carry it, but TRUMP will still win in a landslide.

You've just reached TNVolunteer levels of obsession. Never do that, regardless of what state it is.

Why do you elitist Massholes think you can boss me around? Probably sitting there in your Prius, looking down at me. Like all the fancy schmancy educated scientists and tree huggin hippies who tell me coal is dying. COAL IS NOT DYING! TRUMP WILL MAKE COAL GREAT AGAIN AND STOP IMMIGRANTS AND MUSLIMS FROM TAKING OUR JOBS!

Elitist smug coastal liberal intellectuals like you are why I and many others like me have left the Democratic Party. We will deliver Trump a victory in November!

[Gabagool102]

Nah, not enough coal mining white working class blue collar Reagan Democrats like me in NJ. The harpy will carry it, but TRUMP will still win in a landslide.

You've just reached TNVolunteer levels of obsession. Never do that, regardless of what state it is.

Why do you elitist Massholes think you can boss me around? Probably sitting there in your Prius, looking down at me. Like all the fancy schmancy educated scientists and tree huggin hippies who tell me coal is dying. COAL IS NOT DYING! TRUMP WILL MAKE COAL GREAT AGAIN AND STOP IMMIGRANTS AND MUSLIMS FROM TAKING OUR JOBS!

Elitist smug coastal liberal intellectuals like you are why I and many others like me have left the Democratic Party. We will deliver Trump a victory in November!

Lol nice

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

NJ-It will probably stay the same as 2012(58-41%) or swing or trend dem very sightly

The last bastion of Republican majority support in NJ comes from citizens ages 65 and up. All the other age groups are pretty overwhelmingly Democratic (60%+). The voters that are keeping NJ from NY-style blowouts are literally dying off and within 8 - 10 years will no longer influence NJ voting patterns much at all.

I'd say it trends even more Democratic this year.

You are making the mistake of thinking of Donald Trump as a Republican.  The GOP is dead, at least in terms of an organization that produces Presidents.  Donald Trump played them.  Like a violin.  The "Mexicans are rapists" remarks and tiny-words act in the primaries?  That's going away.  He's already starting to sound like he stepped out of a think tank.  He will walk into the first debate with Hillary using a college-level vocabulary and a mastery of policy positions, and bury the former Secretary.

You think Donald Trump is an idiot?  He's going to wipe the floor with Clinton.  Her handlers are going to prepare her for the old Donald, and when the new Donald shows up, she'll be left going "dur, dur, dur, dur, dur...."

In the ensuing media frenzy, not only will Donald Trump be publicized in every news outlet 24/7, but the voting population will have forgotten all about his late-2015 antics.

That's how he wins New Jersey.

[Virginiá]

You are making the mistake of thinking of Donald Trump as a Republican.  The GOP is dead, at least in terms of an organization that produces Presidents.  Donald Trump played them.  Like a violin.  The "Mexicans are rapists" remarks and tiny-words act in the primaries?  That's going away.  He's already starting to sound like he stepped out of a think tank.  He will walk into the first debate with Hillary using a college-level vocabulary and a mastery of policy positions, and bury the former Secretary.

You think Donald Trump is an idiot?  He's going to wipe the floor with Clinton.  Her handlers are going to prepare her for the old Donald, and when the new Donald shows up, she'll be left going "dur, dur, dur, dur, dur...."

In the ensuing media frenzy, not only will Donald Trump be publicized in every news outlet 24/7, but the voting population will have forgotten all about his late-2015 antics.

That's how he wins New Jersey.

You really have taken on this whole "Trump is going to defy all odds" angle lately. Anyway, I'm going to go with what decades of reliable trends have shown and not a seriously flimsy hypothetical scenario. Personally, I think you need to balance these theories with actual data.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

You really have taken on this whole "Trump is going to defy all odds" angle lately. Anyway, I'm going to go with what decades of reliable trends have shown and not a seriously flimsy hypothetical scenario that in some ways suggests that Trump is a political messiah. Personally, I think you need to balance these theories with actual data.

It's not that Trump is going to defy all the odds, it's that Trump is playing with a completely different deck.  I guarantee you right now, there are people across the liberal northeast who are already looking at Trump going, "you know, he's starting to look ok."

Trump's not a Republican.  He just exploited the GOP to gain a nomination.  Now that that's out of the way, you're going to see a very different candidate.  These threads are going to look silly in September.

[libertpaulian]

NJ will certainly go to Clinton.  However, I predict that it'll be by a 9%-12% margin.  It'll be closer than how the Democrat normally wins it.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=238196.0

[Cruzcrew]

NJ will certainly go to Clinton.  However, I predict that it'll be by a 9%-12% margin.  It'll be closer than how the Democrat normally wins it.

This seems accurate. He's a better fit for New Jersey than ordinary republican candidates but he's too polarizing to actually have a chance at carrying it.

[Nyvin]

A new YouGov poll just came out with Hillary winning New Jersey with +15%.    It's 49% Hillary to 34% Trump.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/nj/new_jersey_trump_vs_clinton-5872.html

[Coolface Sock #42069]

No, this isn't 2013.

[FREAK21345]

Yes, it is very possible it could go GOP this year, along with Pennsylvania.

[ProudModerate2]

A new YouGov poll just came out with Hillary winning New Jersey with +15%.    It's 49% Hillary to 34% Trump.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/nj/new_jersey_trump_vs_clinton-5872.html

[Fuzzy Bear Loves Christian Missionaries]

Using the demographic calculator, and keeping all non-white democraphics the same, I had to push college educated w whites to 70% Trump and non-college educated to 74% Trump to get New Jersey to flip.

Finally a quote from reason.

Not likely, but not impossible.

[hopper]

A new YouGov poll just came out with Hillary winning New Jersey with +15%.    It's 49% Hillary to 34% Trump.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/nj/new_jersey_trump_vs_clinton-5872.html

49% is a little low for a Dem Presidential General Election Nominee. Obama got 57% in 2008 and 58% in 2012 in New Jersey. Still the margin of 15 points of the YouGov Poll is in line with Obama's 15 point margin in 2008 and his 17 point margin in 2012 in NJ.

[StatesPoll]

Yes, I know many will laugh at me. I'm kinda new here, but I think if Trump plays his cards right he could win the state of New Jersey. It was actually considered a toss up state in '04, so I don't see why it can't be a toss up state this election. Plus the latest quinnipiac poll, shows Clinton only up 7, and thats REALLY bad for her. since Obama carried the state by 18 points.

imo His chance of winning

OR=ME-2 >= MN >= WA >= CT=ME(Statewide) >= ME1 >= NJ > NY=CA

in NJ, Minorities(33-34% voters share) support for TRUMP is lower than Other states.
Especially Blacks, He often gets 2-3%ish in Polls. Latinos around 20%ish, Asians under 30%ish.

Republican voters shares in NJ: only 19.5%(June,2016) so can't expect turnouts matter much.

I think CT is playable for TRUMP, But NJ it would be very hard.