Updated list of who is in and out of first GOP debate (FOX Aug. 6)

[Likely Voter]

The following list is those who (currently) qualify for the first GOP debate, being held on August 6th on FOX.

--------in------------
1   Jeb Bush   13.8
2   Rubio   12.2
3   Walker   11.2
4   Carson   9.0
5   Rand Paul   8.8
6   Huckabee   8.8
7   Cruz   7.8
8   Christie   5.0
9   Trump   4.0
10   Perry   2.4
--------out------------
11   Kasich   2.0
12   Santorum   2.0
13   Fiorina   1.4
14   Pataki   1.0
15   Jindal   0.8
16   Graham   0.8

unpolled (and therefore also out): Gilmore, King, Erlich, and anyone else


based on last 5 national polls:
CNN    5/29 - 5/31
ABC/Washington Post    5/28 - 5/31
Quinnipiac   5/19 - 5/26
FOX   5/9 - 5/12
NBC/WSJ   4/26 - 4/30
(Assumes all that are polled are official candidates)

FOX doesn't actually detail which polls they accept, just that they must be "nationally recognized organizations that use standard methodological techniques" so I am assuming same list as CNN (which is all the non-partisan live phone polls)

BTW, if one of the current top 10 weren't running then both Kasich and Santorum would be in as FOX will allow for ties for 10th place. CNN has a complex tie breaker thing that I didn't bother with.

[Likely Voter]

Woah, woah, woah...what happened to 12???

We better have a 6 way tie for 10th place

12 was just a possibility being floated. But in the end FOX announced they will take just top 10. CNN is doing the same for debate #2 in September but they will have an intro debate with those who dont get into the top 10 (I think they will get less time). FOX promises that those who dont make the top 10 will get airtime on FOX.

Fox isn't dumb. They will adjust the arbitrary rules to get Kasich in and Trump out.

There really is no way to do that. Here is the official criteria to get into the FOX debate

-    Must meet all U.S. Constitutional requirements; and
-    Must announce and register a formal campaign for president; and
-    Must file all necessary paperwork with the Federal Election Commission (FEC); and
-    Must have paid all necessary federal and state filing fees; and
-    Must place in the top 10 of an average of the five most recent national polls, as recognized by FOX News leading up to August 4th at 5 PM/ET. Such polling must be conducted by major, nationally recognized organizations that use standard methodological techniques.

If the Donald is an official candidate, then he is in. Unclear what criteria they could add to keep out Trump. ('must not have ridiculous hair'?)

[Likely Voter]

While Fox cannot change the rules arbitrarily they can manipulate something major and that is the amount of airtime they give to the bottom tier people in June and July.  The best way to get to 4-5%  is appearing on Fox News.   Someone should track how many minutes Kasich gets vs Santorum, Jindal, etc.

[Likely Voter]

The release of the new FOX poll brings up an interesting question regarding how FOX defines "the five most recent national polls." Does that mean they would allow multiple polls from the same pollster? Right now the last 5 polls includes 2 Fox polls. Depending on how they choose that distinction changes the results and could change who is in or out.

Here is the updated list with the new FOX poll...

(last 5 polls average, not allowing multiple polls from same pollster)
---------in-----------
1   Bush   11.6
2   Walker   10.8
3   Rubio   10.0
4   Carson   9.8
5   Huckabee   9.0
6   Paul   8.4
7   Cruz   7.2
8   Christie   5.0
9   Trump   4.0
10   Perry   2.8
---------out-----------
11   Kasich   2.0
12   Santorum   2.0
13   Fiorina   1.6
14   Pataki   1.2
15   Graham   1.0
16   Jindal   0.8

(last 5 polls average, allowing multiple polls from same pollster)
---------in-----------
1   Bush   11.3
2   Walker   10.8
3   Rubio   10.3
4   Carson   9.0
5   Huckabee   8.8
6   Paul   8.8
7   Cruz   7.5
8   Christie   4.8
9   Trump   4.0
10   Perry   3.0
---------out-----------
11   Kasich   2.0
12   Santorum   2.0
13   Fiorina   1.8
14   Pataki   1.5
15   Graham   1.3
16   Jindal   0.8

[Likely Voter]

With release of new Monmouth poll, here is latest avg of last five (live phone) polls and  who would be in or out of the FOX debate if it were being held today

---------in-----------
1   Bush   10.8
2   Walker   10.6
3   Rubio   10.0
4   Carson   9.4
5   Huckabee   8.6
6   Paul   8.2
7   Cruz   7.0
8   Christie   4.6
9   Trump   3.6
10   Perry   3.2
---------out-----------
11   Santorum   2.2
12(t)   Kasich   1.8
12(t)   Fiorina   1.8
13   Graham   1.4
14   Pataki   1.2
15   Jindal   0.8

Top 10 hasnt changed. As for the second tier, Santorum, Fiorina and Graham have all inched up a bit and Kasich and Pataki have both inched down.

[Likely Voter]

Turns out that Media Matters is tracking airtime on FOX. Their summary for May is interesting and may show why Trump is in the Top 10. Once he is a candidate, will they continue to give Trump as much airtime?



And whoever is handling Rick Perry's media strategy should be fired. Not a single appearance of FOX for a month? I can't imagine they would turn him down if he tried to get at least some airtime.

[Likely Voter]

UPDATE: with new NBC poll

Trump and Perry have swapped places with Trump dropping down to 10th. Also Kasich has dropped to 12th (previously tied with Fiorina for 11th

=======IN========

1   Bush   13.2
2   Walker*   12.0
3   Rubio   10.8
4   Carson   9.6
5   Huckabee   8.4
6   Paul   8.2
7   Cruz   6.6
8   Christie*   4.6
9   Perry   4.0 ↑
10   Trump   2.8 ↓

=======OUT========

11   Santorum   2.2
12   Fiorina   1.8
13   Kasich*   1.6 ↓
14   Graham   1.4
15   Pataki   1.2
16   Jindal*   0.6

* undeclared candidate
↑↓ up/down change of rank

[Likely Voter]

Due to the infrequency of live phone polling it takes about a month to get your bounce in. As of now only two of the five polls are after Graham and Perry's announcement, and only one after Trump's obviously. 

[Likely Voter]

This is the FOX criteria:

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It may be that all the major polling outfits will try to get one out in the week before Aug. 4, which may mean that there will be fewer (live phone) polls in early/mid July.

And it looks like that 1% thing could be an issue for Jindal who would not even qualify for the second tier 'forum' FOX is holding. Of course he will have his theoretical 'bump' but I think that after spending all year trying to get attention and polling below 1%, Jindal may not run in the end.

[Likely Voter]

UPDATE: with new FOX poll

Trump leaps into 8th place, past both Christie and Perry


=======IN========

1   Bush   13.8
2   Walker*   11.4
3   Rubio   11.0
4   Carson   9.4
5   Huckabee   8.4
6   Paul   8.2
7   Cruz   5.8
8   Trump   4.2 ↑
9   Christie*   4.0 ↓
10   Perry   3.6 ↓

=======OUT========

11   Santorum   2.4
12   Fiorina   2.0
13   Kasich*   1.6
14   Graham   1.2
15   Pataki   1.0
16   Jindal   0.8


* undeclared candidate
↑↓ up/down change of rank

[Likely Voter]

The average is live phone polls only. No PPP or YouGov or other IVR and Internet polls.

And as you can see from my last update Trunp is at 4.2. 

[Likely Voter]

UPDATE: with new CNN poll

For third update in a row Trump jumps up a spot, this time passing Cruz.

After updating this for a month, so far not a single candidate has moved in or out of the top 10. The only change in qualification is Pataki has dropped out of qualifying for the 'Forum' and Jindal now as broken the 1% threshold to get in

=======MAIN FOX DEBATE========

1   Bush   15.0
2   Walker*   10.6
3   Rubio   9.4
4   Carson   9.4
5   Huckabee   8.0
6   Paul   8.0
7   Trump   6.0 ↑
8   Cruz   4.8 ↓
9   Christie   3.8
10   Perry   3.4

=========FOX 'FORUM'==========

11   Santorum   2.8
12   Fiorina   2.0
13   Kasich*   2.0
14   Graham   1.2
15   Jindal   1.0 ↑

=======NO APPEARANCE=========

16   Pataki   0.4 ↓


* undeclared candidate
↑↓ up/down change of rank

[Likely Voter]

Questions being asked about whether candidates who haven't submitted their financial disclosure forms will be invited to the debate:

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/07/10/us/politics/donald-trump-republican-party-debate.html?_r=0

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Yeah I brought this issue up in the Mexico Trump thread. Bloomberg and WaPo are saying the statement from FOX means you need to have your financials in. From Bloomberg....

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Not sure what this will mean for Walker and Kasich, but both will be within their 30 day window to file their financials at the time of the debate

[Likely Voter]

The list will be determined according to the RCP average?

Not exactly. FOX calls for an average of the last 5 polls but havent detailed which polls they will include but it is likely it wont include non live phone polls. RCP avg covers polls for the last month (so currently they are only averaging 4 polls). RCP has also included non live phone polls like PPP (although the latest PPP wasn't, possibly because that was before they expanded to include more than 9).

So the debate may include Trump, Carson and Jindal but not Bush?

It is likely Bush will get his financials in before the debate deadline. Trump is saying he will submit his financials next week, we will see.

[Likely Voter]

UPDATED with new Monmouth poll

Trump jumps up 2 places and Huck drops 2. Santorum is getting close to kicking someone out of the top 10.

=======MAIN FOX DEBATE========

1   Bush   16.2
2   Walker   10.0
3   Rubio   8.8
4   Carson   8.4
5   Trump   8.2 ↑
6   Paul   8.0
7   Huckabee   7.8 ↓
8   Cruz   5.6
9   Christie   3.4
10   Perry   3.0

=========FOX 'FORUM'==========
      
11   Santorum   2.6
12   Kasich*   2.0
13   Fiorina   1.8 ↓
14   Jindal   1.2 ↑
15   Graham   0.8 ↓

=======NO APPEARANCE=========
      
16   Pataki   0.4
17   Gilmore*   0.0



* undeclared candidate
↑↓ up/down change of rank

[Likely Voter]

I did another calculation based on just the 3 post Trump announcement polls (CNN, FOX, Monmouth)  and the results are different. Trump is in second, Santorum is in the top 10 and Christie is out!. Graham also drops out of the Forum. A lot of this is due to an NBC poll which has some outlier results. Once that washes out of the mix I think this may become the new normal.

1   Bush   16.3
2   Trump   12.0
3   Carson   7.7
4   Walker   7.3
5   Paul   7.3
6   Huckabee   7.0
7   Rubio   6.7
8   Cruz   5.3
9   Santorum   3.0
10   Perry   2.7
      
11   Christie   2.3
12   Kasich   2.0
13   Jindal   2.0
14   Fiorina   1.7
      
15   Graham   0.7
16   Pataki   0.3
17   Gilmore   0.0

[Likely Voter]

I would imagine if you dont get into the second debate (CNN in September) your campaign is essentially finished. But in the world of super PACs and sugar daddies we could see a zombie campaign limp along. Fiorina may even self-finance in hopes to stay in it until NH, seeing it as an investment in her future (on Fox or in GOP administration)

BTW there is an interesting wrinkle on the CNN debate, their criteria averages all the live phone polls between July 16 and September 10. So all the pols released in the run up to the Fox debate will be included. So even if one of the kiddie table candidates 'pops' in the FOX forum, they will be weighed down by at least a few pre FOX Forum polls.

[Likely Voter]

UPDATED with new USA Today poll (Ipsos poll is Internet and unlikely to be used by FOX)

Trump continues his climb. Christie and Perry are at risk of losing their spots to Santorum.

=======MAIN FOX DEBATE========

1   Bush   17.0
2   Trump   10.8 ↑
3   Walker   9.4 ↓
4   Rubio   7.8
5   Carson   7.6
6   Huckabee   6.8 ↑
7   Paul   6.6 ↓
8   Cruz   5.2
9   Christie   2.8
10   Perry   2.8

=========FOX 'FORUM'==========

11   Santorum   2.0
12   Kasich*   1.6
13   Fiorina   1.6
14   Jindal   1.4
15   Graham   0.6

=======NO APPEARANCE=========
      
16   Pataki   0.2
17   Gilmore*   0.0

* undeclared candidate
↑↓ up/down change of rank

[Likely Voter]

The Cruz campaign has sent out a memo challenging Fox to clarify its standards and makes some recommendations on what polls should be considered:
 - phone only polls (not specific on live or automated)
- polls should have 1000 respondents (I assume this means all and not just Republicans because no polls has that many of one party)
- no polls with weekends included.
http://www.politico.com/story/2015/07/ted-cruz-challenges-fox-debate-standards-120169.html

I suspect that the Cruz campaign is concerned that he tends to do poorly in the ubiquitous (online) YouGov polls, but I doubt Fox would ever consider including those anyway. Not sure about the weekend thing. But it is interesting how Fox continues to refuse to explain its methodology. We dont know what polls they will use (specific pollsters or even accepted methodologies) or if they will use all adult republicans or RV republican numbers (this distinction could easily make the difference between who is 10th and who is 11th). We also don't know if they would allow multiple polls from the same pollster, but that likely wont be an issue by the time of the debate.

[Likely Voter]

UPDATED with new FOX poll

Santorum has broken into the top 10, sending Perry down to the minor league. This is the first time in the 6 weeks of tracking this that someone has broken into the top 10.


=======MAIN FOX DEBATE========

 1    Bush   15.0
 2    Trump   14.2
 3    Walker   9.0
 4    Paul   7.0 ↑
 5    Carson   6.8
 6    Rubio   6.6 ↓
 7    Huckabee   5.2
 8    Cruz   5.2
 9    Christie   2.6
 10    Santorum   2.4 ↑

=========FOX 'FORUM'==========
 
11    Perry   2.0  ↓
 12    Kasich*   1.8
 13    Fiorina   1.4
 14    Jindal   1.4
 15    Graham   0.6  ↓

=======NO APPEARANCE=========
      
 16    Pataki   0.4
 17    Gilmore*   0.0

* undeclared candidate
↑↓ up/down change of rank


EDIT: fixed a couple minor things. Consistent use of RV numbers and using 1% for Monmouth "<1%" instead of 0%. Rankings stay the same but Graham now back into 'Forum'

[Likely Voter]

The 538 analysis is almost exactly the same as mine with a tiny difference for a couple of the candidates (no change in rankings). This small dif is due to them using adult republican leaner numbers instead of the Republican RV numbers in the latest CNN poll (the only other polls that provides both numbers are from ABC/WaPo).

As 538 notes, Fox has not clarified how they will calculate it so they are guessing just like I am. RCP uses the adult numbers when there is a choice, HuffPollster uses RV. I think RV is more likely because it gives more apples to apples comparison vs other pollsters.

[Likely Voter]

The fact that FOX wont clarify their formula suggests they may want to keep the rounding option open. But Fox selected 10 for a reason, they don't want to have to extend the group to 11 or 12 so I think they wont 'round' for anyone. If the rankings change and rounding made the difference for including Kasich or Fiorina they just might do it, but would they do it for Graham, Perry, Santorum, Jindal, Pataki, Christie or Gilmore?  

They have set aside 2 hours for the 'Forum' for people who dont make it into the main debate. If they extend the debate to 12 people, the Forum might only have 2-4 people in it. In that case, you may be better off in the forum for the amount of airtime you will get.

[Likely Voter]

UPDATED with new ABC Poll

Trump increases lead and Perry returns to the top 10, sending Santorum back down to the Forum.

Graham drops back out of the Forum and Fiorina is also in danger of not meeting the 1% threshold.

=======MAIN FOX DEBATE========
1   Trump   16.8
2   Bush   14.4
3   Walker   9.8
4   Paul   6.4
5   Rubio   6.4 ↑
6   Carson   6.0 ↓
7   Huckabee   5.6
8   Cruz   5.2
9   Christie   2.8
10   Perry   2.4 ↑

=========FOX 'FORUM'==========

11   Santorum   2.0 ↓  **
12   Kasich*   1.8   **
13   Jindal   1.4 ↑
14   Fiorina   0.8 ↓

=======NO APPEARANCE=========

15   Graham   0.4 ↓
16   Pataki   0.4
17   Gilmore*   0.0

* undeclared candidate
** Would attend debate if FOX rounds to nearest whole number
↑↓ up/down change of rank

Assumptions:
- Live phone polls only
- RV numbers when there is option
- Treat Monmouth "<1%" as 1% (as opposed to 0%)
- Allow multiple polls from same pollster
- Round to 1 decimal
- 1% threshold for 'Forum' will include rounding up to nearest whole number

Currently averaging latest polls from ABC, FOX, USA Today, Monmouth, CNN

[Likely Voter]

Fox has said they are sticking to their plan which is 10 people. THey will extend it if there is a tie for 10th.

CNN has said that they are also using 10 as a cutoff but that if there are only 14 candidates left by the time of their debate in September they may cut it down to 8. Instead of a 'forum' they are having a second debate with the lower tier.

[Likely Voter]

The NYT has done their own estimate and comes up with the same exact numbers as I did.
http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2015/07/21/upshot/election-2015-the-first-gop-debate-and-the-role-of-chance.html

The article also examines how the Fox criteria essentially means that some will make the stage by luck, noting:

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