COVID-19 Megathread 5: The Trumps catch COVID-19

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Soooo how are today’s numbers looking??

Much, much better - even with a ton of testing.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

I don’t really see how this can be interpreted as evidence the lockdowns are working.  It’s seems just as likely to me that this is an inevitable consequence of approaching herd immunity, with about 25% of NYC’s population already infected.

If lockdowns worked, this decline would have happened much earlier.

Pandemics die down. People build up immunity, the seasons change, and things change.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

This is interesting:

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1254856060734550017

Something I've wondered: have other countries seen protests in favor of reopening such as those that have occurred in a number of U.S. cities?

Germany has them...

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/04/dozens-arrested-anti-covid-19-lockdown-protest-germany-200426083407846.html

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Do you literally not understand, or simply refuse to, that the whole point of the lockdown isn't to magically eliminate the virus but to keep the numbers steady so the healthcare system isn't overwhemed?

It got overwhelmed anyway. They had to use mass graves in New York.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Remdesivir when?

Japan is about to approve it. Why won't the U.S.?

[Bandit3 the Worker]

I'm also wondering when the FDA is going to approve plasma treatment for broad use. Right now they only allow it on a case-by-case basis.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

For the record, on Tuesday morning I had a cardiac incident and a pulmonary embolism because of the lockdown.

Everyone who supported the lockdowns happy now?

[Bandit3 the Worker]

I'm sorry to hear that and hope you're feeling better.  Of course nobody is happy about it.  But just out of curiosity, why do you blame the lockdown for it?

I can't tolerate the stress.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Where do they come up with this nonsense? It's obviously not going to reach 3,000 a day.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Where do they come up with this nonsense? It's obviously not going to reach 3,000 a day.

That's not obvious to me at all. I would have thought it was unlikely, sure. But I have no idea.

The fact that the media even reported this is alarmist garbage, which is irresponsible, and is no help at all. I literally almost had another cardiac episode when I saw it.

They are literally trying to have an excuse to keep us locked down even longer.

I literally cannot take this.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Where do they come up with this nonsense? It's obviously not going to reach 3,000 a day.

Why is that hard to imagine? There were numerous upon numerous days where it was 2,000-2,500, and I think we had one day where it was 2,700 or 2,800 in the last 2 weeks

Yesterday was 1,154. It was the fifth day in a row when it dropped.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Regarding the leaked CDC model estimating 200K cases and 3K deaths per day:

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1257392630331293696

In other words, the New York Times and CNBC almost gave me a heart attack over nothing. Nice.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Moreover, polls have shown that Democrats are more likely than Republicans to wear masks or facial coverings in public-I noted an ABC News poll from a few weeks ago to that effect, indicating that 69% of Democrats and 47% of Republicans are wearing them in public.

I'm just not seeing this. People around here generally don't wear them, especially outdoors. It tends to be more left-wing types who don't wear them around here, maybe because it's just not always realistic, or because they're careful enough not to get right up in people's faces to begin with.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

5/6 (Today):

• Cases: 1,263,092 (+26,105 | Δ Change: ↑8.09% | Σ Increase: ↑2.11%)
• Deaths: 74,799 (+2,558 | Δ Change: ↑10.26% | Σ Increase: ↑3.54%)

Cases seems to have decreased in the last week. Deaths continue to be just as bad.

Deaths would always be a lagging indicator.  We also have to remember that testing has ramped up.  Nate Silver tweets a metric every day with the percentage of the tests coming back positive, and that has showed a slow, but steady, decline over the last month or so.

I don't know if there's an official formula for this, but here's what I use to estimate the actual number of new cases each day:

N*(T/5)

'N' is the number of known new cases. 'T' is the percentage of tests that comes back positive.

Based on that formula, the number of actual new cases lately is way, way, way down.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

https://twitter.com/whereisdaz/status/1257586054363635714

I remember the exponential graph actually being true in mid-March. Everyone said that EVERYONE in the whole country would be infected very quickly.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Can someone with more expertise than me give any insight into how this works and what it would mean?

It probably means not too many more people in the Bronx or Chelsea, Mass., will catch this virus.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

For anyone looking for a rare positive development in all this, today had the lowest percentage of positive tests since way back on March 16.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

For anyone looking for a rare positive development in all this, today had the lowest percentage of positive tests since way back on March 16.

Rare?

Well, things are going much better now than they were in March or April.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Montana is allowing schools to reopen. A few districts actually have.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

The rate of positive tests in the U.S. just tumbled to 7.25% today. Also the fewest deaths since March 29.

The number of new cases was just a tiny bit over 20,000, despite a lot of testing.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Today just had by far the most tests of any day so far. Yet still, Worldometers may show only about 17,000 new cases today, if that. Percentage of positive cases tumbled to about 4.5% today.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Today just had by far the most tests of any day so far. Yet still, Worldometers may show only about 17,000 new cases today, if that. Percentage of positive cases tumbled to about 4.5% today.

It was still a good day, but the testing number was increased because New Jersey dumped a bunch of backlogged negative tests.

If you knock 100,000 off the number of tests, it's still by far the best day since March.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Certain Governors and Mayors are really letting their authoritarian instincts show. If states like Colorado and Georgia are able to keep the virus under control while cautiously reopening, no way do these hard lockdowns last for months more without the use of force.

Montana may very well be the best example of reducing this virus while letting things open.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

It's time.

Two months is enough.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

A few days ago, I found the "LockdownSkepticism" group on Reddit. It's proof that people across the political spectrum can get along for a common cause. The rank-and-file right is learning that we don't have horns and cloven hooves like their leaders told them we did. We've all got each other's backs in fighting this.