Italy 2013 official results thread

[minionofmidas]

Massa-Carrara Left 35.8 (-6.8), Troll 27.7, Clown 24.6 (-14.8), Right 6.8
Though this is in Toscana, Massa-Carrara and Lucca (but Lucca more so than Massa-Carrara, though the Left will win it this year) is the traditionally rightwing pocket of Toscana. I seem to recall there was some sort of explanation for this, but it escapes my memory right now.

Fermo (one of those newfangled provinces that didn't exist yet when I learned the Italian provinces off by heart >:(. In the Marche) Troll 31.1, Left 30.2 (-13.1), Clown 25.2 (-17.1), Right 9.2




Also, a precinct in Argentina has become the first abroad precinct to report! FAIE ahead.

And we have our final official national turnout figure, but only for the Senate: 75.19 (-5.27)

[Antonio the Sixth]

Oh God, now let's all pray for the Left not to lose the House too.

[Tender Branson]

It looks to me like Grillo sucked away about 6% from the Left (from 35% in pre-election polls to 29% now) and about 4% from Monti (from 14% to 10%), while Berlusconi has basically lost nothing to Grillo (he polled 29% before the election and has 29/30% now).

I guess Grillo sucked many younger and middle-aged voters away from the Left.

[Keystone Phil]

84% of the Senate vote in. The center-left's lead is down to 1.6%.

[Andrea]

Lombardo is flopping in Sicily.

In how many regions was Casini up for Monti's List? I see he's their lead candidate in Lazio and Campania. In one just below 8 and in the other just above it

[justfollowingtheelections]

Is this (posted on the Guardian's liveblog) likely to be reasonably accurate?

That's one of the weirdest maps ever.  Can someone explain to me the alliance between Lombardy and Southern Italy?  It really doesn't make any sense to me.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

My (limited) understanding is that the areas north of the Po and the Mezzogiorno have for a long time both been more right-wing than the areas in between, but for very different reasons.

[Lurker]

My (limited) understanding is that the areas north of the Po and the Mezzogiorno have for a long time both been more right-wing than the areas in between, but for very different reasons.

Out of curiosity, what are the different reasons the two has?

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

My (limited) understanding is that the areas north of the Po and the Mezzogiorno have for a long time both been more right-wing than the areas in between, but for very different reasons.

Out of curiosity, what are the different reasons the two has?

I believe the North is more business-oriented and the South is more traditionalist, but that's more likely than not to be an oversimplification.

________

...Grillo is not close in but straight-up winning the Camera vote in Sicily, Liguria, and Marche. Kill me now.

[Lief 🗽]

The latest RAI projection:

SENATO DELLA REPUBBLICA

Centrosinistra 31,1 - 105 seats
Centrodestra 30,5 - 113 seats
Movimento 5 Stelle 24,4 - 63 seats
Scelta Civica 9,5 - 20 seats

CAMERA DELLA REPUBBLICA

Centrosinistra 29,2 - 340 seats
Centrodestra 28,7 - 121 seats
Movimento 5 Stelle 26,1 - 111 seats
Scelta Civica 10,8 - 45 seats

Wait, how does a .5% popular vote lead result in 219 more seats?!

[RogueBeaver]

The latest RAI projection:

SENATO DELLA REPUBBLICA

Centrosinistra 31,1 - 105 seats
Centrodestra 30,5 - 113 seats
Movimento 5 Stelle 24,4 - 63 seats
Scelta Civica 9,5 - 20 seats

CAMERA DELLA REPUBBLICA

Centrosinistra 29,2 - 340 seats
Centrodestra 28,7 - 121 seats
Movimento 5 Stelle 26,1 - 111 seats
Scelta Civica 10,8 - 45 seats

Wait, how does a .5% popular vote lead result in 219 more seats?!

Majority bonus. Whoever wins the national popular vote automatically wins a Chamber majority, 340-ish seats.

[You kip if you want to...]

The latest RAI projection:

SENATO DELLA REPUBBLICA

Centrosinistra 31,1 - 105 seats
Centrodestra 30,5 - 113 seats
Movimento 5 Stelle 24,4 - 63 seats
Scelta Civica 9,5 - 20 seats

CAMERA DELLA REPUBBLICA

Centrosinistra 29,2 - 340 seats
Centrodestra 28,7 - 121 seats
Movimento 5 Stelle 26,1 - 111 seats
Scelta Civica 10,8 - 45 seats

Wait, how does a .5% popular vote lead result in 219 more seats?!

Where have you been?

Italy's electoral system's designed to give a majority to the popular vote winner.

[minionofmidas]

Vallée d'Aoste: Vallée d'Aoste 37.0 Autonomie Liberté & Whatnot 30.8 (that's the more leftwing regional alliance that actually includes the local PD) Troll 20.7 which must be the best result for a national party running without local allies in forty years or so. When I click the previous results button for some reason it gives me those of Südtirol-Trentino.

Asti Clown 32.1 (-20.2) Left 26.8 (-7.1) Troll 25.1 Right 12.6. In Piemonte.

Belluno Clown 28.6 (-22.8) Left 28.0 (-4.4) Troll 23.6 Right 14.3. In Veneto.

Pordenone Clown 33.6 (-20.7) Left 25.8 (-6.8) Troll 24.3 Right 12.4. Of 26 precincts left in FVG 15 are in near-tied Udine and 11 are in leftwing Gorica. However the left's lead is just 2400 votes (0.35 points). I still don't quite dare calling it.

Piacenza Left 32.6 (-3.7) Clown 32.4 (-17.5) Troll 21.4 Right 8.8. The rightwing bit of Emilia.

Parma Left 35.3 (-6.6) Troll 27.3 Clown 23.1 (-17.6) Right 9.9. Just nextdoor but we're on red belt territory now.

Modena Left 44.2 (-7.2) Troll 21.8 Clown 20.5 (-15.0) Right 9.1. Two provinces further east and in the heart of the red belt.

Savona Troll 31.3 Left 29.4 (-9.5) Clown 27.1 (-21.6) Right 9.0. In Liguria.

Lucca Left 32.7 (-7.1) Clown 27.1 (-17.1) Troll 26.8 Right 9.0. Mentioned above.

Prato Left 42.2 (-7.4) Troll 22.7 Clown 22.6 (-13.8) Right 8.4. Whoever had the bright idea, in the 90s, to remove this strip of land near Firenze from Firenze province while keeping the remoter areas with the city?

Final Camera turnout is 75.17 (-5.33). Camera is two-thirds counted by now, but I think I'll stick with the Senate for these province reports.

[Lief 🗽]

The latest RAI projection:

SENATO DELLA REPUBBLICA

Centrosinistra 31,1 - 105 seats
Centrodestra 30,5 - 113 seats
Movimento 5 Stelle 24,4 - 63 seats
Scelta Civica 9,5 - 20 seats

CAMERA DELLA REPUBBLICA

Centrosinistra 29,2 - 340 seats
Centrodestra 28,7 - 121 seats
Movimento 5 Stelle 26,1 - 111 seats
Scelta Civica 10,8 - 45 seats

Wait, how does a .5% popular vote lead result in 219 more seats?!

Majority bonus. Whoever wins the national popular vote automatically wins a Chamber majority, 340-ish seats.

Huh, that's a bizarre system.

[Kitteh]

The latest RAI projection:

SENATO DELLA REPUBBLICA

Centrosinistra 31,1 - 105 seats
Centrodestra 30,5 - 113 seats
Movimento 5 Stelle 24,4 - 63 seats
Scelta Civica 9,5 - 20 seats

CAMERA DELLA REPUBBLICA

Centrosinistra 29,2 - 340 seats
Centrodestra 28,7 - 121 seats
Movimento 5 Stelle 26,1 - 111 seats
Scelta Civica 10,8 - 45 seats

Wait, how does a .5% popular vote lead result in 219 more seats?!

Majority bonus. Whoever wins the national popular vote automatically wins a Chamber majority, 340-ish seats.

Huh, that's a bizarre system.

Yeah, it totally sucks. All the bad aspects of PR (clowns like Grillo) combined with all the bad aspects of FPTP (horrifically unrepresentative elections).

[Andrea]

Trento FPTP constituency

Franco Panizza PD - SVP 49.01% ELECTED
PDL 22.07%
Grillo 21.42%

[Kushahontas]

so would Grillo's party's entrance into the parliament be a bad thing? I honestly cannot tell and going by what I am reading on Wikipedia, 5 Star Movement seems decent. What do you guys know about this that I don't?

[Andrea]

Johann Karl Berger (SVP) is elected MP for Bressanone with 55.4% of the vote
SVP's Karl Zeller wins Merano with 53.5%

[Leftbehind]

I had the impression he was an anti-politician populist; presumably it's doubtful he would or could help a government being formed.

[Hash]

so would Grillo's party's entrance into the parliament be a bad thing? I honestly cannot tell and going by what I am reading on Wikipedia, 5 Star Movement seems decent. What do you guys know about this that I don't?

Grillo is a demagogic madman and M5S has no actual platform besides Grillo yelling about how horrible politicians, politics, the system and the establishment are.

[RogueBeaver]

At this rate looks like Bersani will hold the Camera by the skin of his teeth, thankfully, since the current trend doesn't seem steep enough to flip that lead.

[minionofmidas]

Alessandria Clown 32.1 (-18.4) Left 29.5 (-6.8) Troll 25.9 Right 9.1. Next door to Asti in Piemonte.

Vercelli Clown 35.9 (-19.5) Left 28.1 (-4.3) Troll 22.2 Right 10.3. Also in Piemonte.

Trento (constituency, not province; Trentino-Südtirol has six fptp constituencies and one equalization mandate) Left-SVP alliance 49.0 Clown 22.0 Troll 21.4. "Previous election" button identifies candidates by name only, and as neither of the main candidates ran again is useless. I think I know now why they called the SVP "Monti" in that graph. Monti's folks are not running for Senate in the region at all (they do in the Camera though), and of course they stand for much the same kind of politics.

Ravenna Left 44.6 (-7.8) Troll 22.0 Clown 19.2 (-14.2) Right 8.7. In the Romagna, and thus deep in the red belt.

La Spezia Left 37.6 (-7.9) Troll 27.7 Clown 23.5 (-16.8) Right 7.8. Providing over half of the Left's margin of victory in Liguria (vs the local troll, that is. Shame, really. Would have been cool to have him win a region rather than just provinces.)

Livorno Left 44.9 (-10.2) Troll 24.6 Clown 18.8 (-11.5) Right 6.5. The central Tuscan coastal strip. Beautiful place (though Livorno itself is a gritty port town.)

Siena Left 47.6 (-7.8) Troll 20.9 Clown 18.4 (-10.7) Right 8.9. More beautiful Toscana.

Terni Left 38.5 (-9.6) Clown 25.4 (-11.1) Troll 25.0 Right 7.5. And beautiful Umbria. Really, it's not just their politics, it's just a wonderful country around there.

L'Aquila Clown 33.7 (-13.8) Left 29.1 (-9.7) Troll 24.3 Right 7.4. In Abruzzo. The right still leads by 1.7, but 80% of what's out is in Chieti province which skews left somewhat. Not quite time to call for Silvio, I think. He'll probably win it though. Calabrian lead is similar btw.

Ragusa Troll 34.6 Clown 28.1 (-21.4) Left 27.5 (-3.7) Right 6.2. Fairly small province in southern Sicily.

Enna Left 32.7 (-3.3) Clown 29.6 Troll 27.0 (-20.5) Right 6.7. The island's only landlocked province.

Oristano Left 29.7 (-7.1) Clown 27.4 (-20.7) Troll 26.6 Right 9.0. On the west coast of Sardinia.


11 precincts left, 2900 vote lead. I'm calling FVG for the Left. And ere I post I check again: Just 3 precincts now. Over 3000 vote lead.

[Keystone Phil]

At this rate looks like Bersani will hold the Camera by the skin of his teeth, thankfully, since the current trend doesn't seem steep enough to flip that lead.

Maybe but at this point, you're just delaying the inevitable.

[minionofmidas]

Is this (posted on the Guardian's liveblog) likely to be reasonably accurate?

That's one of the weirdest maps ever.  Can someone explain to me the alliance between Lombardy and Southern Italy?  It really doesn't make any sense to me.

The DC was built as a party uniting the entire nation in its clientelistic system. The centre of the country, for reasons partly related to WWII history but partly long predating that, copped out and embraced Communism.

[Andrea]

Bersani leading by 3,000 voters in Friuli with 3 polling stations to go. I think PD should have done it.....polling stations should have 1,000 voters each...I guess PD got at least a couple of them

Piemonte will be very close too....6,000 votes in it and 300 out of 400 missing polling stations around Turin