Trump-Greenfield voters

[Xing]

There aren’t going to be tons of Trump/Democratic Senate Candidate voters in general, but I’ve explained before why I think there is potential for more of these voters to exist than Biden/Republican Senate Candidate voters.

While there were more Clinton/Republican downballot voters in 2016, Trump/Democratic downballot voters did exist, and I think that at least some Trump voters who voted Democratic downballot May continue doing so this year. They could be voters thinking “screw the system/incumbents” or the small percentage of Democrats who actually like Trump. While there will still be some Biden/Republican voters this year, I think Republicans lost a great deal of crossover appeal by aligning themselves with Trump, and we saw that in the 2018 midterms, where House Republicans who won easily in 2016 lost their seats in Romney/Clinton districts and Romney/Trump districts which trended Democratic, and often did worse than Trump in 2016.

While there will obviously be places where the Republican overperforms Trump (Collins in ME, for example), I think this could explain why we often see Republicans underperforming Trump in AZ, IA, and NC. Ernst and Tillis won’t underperform him by 5%, but a 1-2% underperformance is possible, and that could be enough for either of them to lose even if Trump is narrowly winning their state.