Trump-Greenfield voters

[Roll Roons]

Looks like they may exist. Who are they? Also, while Greenfield is polling decently, I'm still curious as to why national Democrats anointed her when she's never held elected office and her last run ended in failure.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

I personally don't understand these types of voters, and I'm skeptical they exist in significant numbers either. Iowa polling has been trash lately. I remember how Finkenauer was supposed to win in a landslide and how Hubbell was going to win. Or in 2014 how the Senate race was supposed to be a nail biter.

I'd be a hypocrite to always bring up Texas polling overestimating Republicans if I didn't bring up Iowa overestimating Dems.

[xavier110]

Looks like they may exist. Who are they? Also, while Greenfield is polling decently, I'm still curious as to why national Democrats anointed her when she's never held elected office and her last run ended in failure.

"I am going to vote for Trump and vote for Dems to keep a check and divide government," yadda yadda yadda and then they wonder why we're in this mess. No different than the people who say the reverse, voting Biden and GOP

Not a huge number...but these kooks exist

[WD]

Many Obama- Trump voters aren’t exactly Partisan Republicans.

[wbrocks67]

I personally don't understand these types of voters, and I'm skeptical they exist in significant numbers either. Iowa polling has been trash lately. I remember how Finkenauer was supposed to win in a landslide and how Hubbell was going to win. Or in 2014 how the Senate race was supposed to be a nail biter.

I'd be a hypocrite to always bring up Texas polling overestimating Republicans if I didn't bring up Iowa overestimating Dems.

Selzer was pretty damn good in 2016, their final poll was Trump +7 (46-39), and he won by 9 (51-42). Interestingly enough, despite their last poll having 15% undecided/other, it was only off by 2 in the end. Which makes me wonder if Greenfield could still end up winning despite their new poll having a similar amount of undecided/other

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Dems arent placing importance on IA and OH, and TX, that means AZ, CO, GA S, GA R, ME and NC are the ballgame

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Looks like they may exist. Who are they? Also, while Greenfield is polling decently, I'm still curious as to why national Democrats anointed her when she's never held elected office and her last run ended in failure.

B/c "We need more women in the Senate so that it truly represents the demographics of this country!" But they knew this seat was a longshot so they didnt want their potential future stars(Axne, Finkenauer) to run

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Looks like they may exist. Who are they? Also, while Greenfield is polling decently, I'm still curious as to why national Democrats anointed her when she's never held elected office and her last run ended in failure.

B/c "We need more women in the Senate so that it truly represents the demographics of this country!" But they knew this seat was a longshot so they didnt want their potential future stars(Axne, Finkenauer) to run

Given the trends, it made no sense not to run the "stars" while they still had half a chance.

[wbrocks67]

Looks like they may exist. Who are they? Also, while Greenfield is polling decently, I'm still curious as to why national Democrats anointed her when she's never held elected office and her last run ended in failure.

B/c "We need more women in the Senate so that it truly represents the demographics of this country!" But they knew this seat was a longshot so they didnt want their potential future stars(Axne, Finkenauer) to run

Given the trends, it made no sense not to run the "stars" while they still had half a chance.

Greenfield seems like a really good choice though in hindsight. She doesn't have a legislative track record to hit, and her personality seems a whole lot more relatable/personable than someone like "Karen" Joni Ernst tbh

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Looks like they may exist. Who are they? Also, while Greenfield is polling decently, I'm still curious as to why national Democrats anointed her when she's never held elected office and her last run ended in failure.

B/c "We need more women in the Senate so that it truly represents the demographics of this country!" But they knew this seat was a longshot so they didnt want their potential future stars(Axne, Finkenauer) to run

Given the trends, it made no sense not to run the "stars" while they still had half a chance.

Hindsight is 2020. I think Finkenauer, Golden, and McBath are going to regret not having run for Senate this year in a Biden midterm.

[DaleCooper]

In states like Iowa, incumbent congresspeople can struggle if voters feel that they're not attempting to represent the unique issues facing the state. The most damning number for Ernst in that recent poll was that well over 50% of Iowa voters believe she has failed to do enough for Iowans, while only 30-something % think that she has succeed.

So if some Trump-voters still think Trump is "America First" or whatever then Greenfield may resonate with them if they glean some kind of "Iowa First" message from her.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Looks like they may exist. Who are they? Also, while Greenfield is polling decently, I'm still curious as to why national Democrats anointed her when she's never held elected office and her last run ended in failure.

B/c "We need more women in the Senate so that it truly represents the demographics of this country!" But they knew this seat was a longshot so they didnt want their potential future stars(Axne, Finkenauer) to run

Given the trends, it made no sense not to run the "stars" while they still had half a chance.

Hindsight is 2020. I think Finkenauer, Golden, and McBath are going to regret not having run for Senate this year in a Biden midterm.

Golden hasn't even endorsed Gideon yet!

[ProgressiveModerate]

Voters in smaller towns who generally lean conservative but can be persuaded by local politics, and feel that Greenfield has more of a personal connection with their community than Ernst

[Hope For A New Era]

Eastern Iowa Obama-Trump voters who are just slightly too deep into the Trumpist cult to vote Biden but who have disliked Ernst since the beginning (because they were Democrats when she was elected).

[wbrocks67]

Looks like they may exist. Who are they? Also, while Greenfield is polling decently, I'm still curious as to why national Democrats anointed her when she's never held elected office and her last run ended in failure.

B/c "We need more women in the Senate so that it truly represents the demographics of this country!" But they knew this seat was a longshot so they didnt want their potential future stars(Axne, Finkenauer) to run

Given the trends, it made no sense not to run the "stars" while they still had half a chance.

Hindsight is 2020. I think Finkenauer, Golden, and McBath are going to regret not having run for Senate this year in a Biden midterm.

Golden hasn't even endorsed Gideon yet!

What's he waiting for? Given his apparently popularity, it could really help. Maybe he's waiting until closer?

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Looks like they may exist. Who are they? Also, while Greenfield is polling decently, I'm still curious as to why national Democrats anointed her when she's never held elected office and her last run ended in failure.

B/c "We need more women in the Senate so that it truly represents the demographics of this country!" But they knew this seat was a longshot so they didnt want their potential future stars(Axne, Finkenauer) to run

Given the trends, it made no sense not to run the "stars" while they still had half a chance.

Hindsight is 2020. I think Finkenauer, Golden, and McBath are going to regret not having run for Senate this year in a Biden midterm.

Golden hasn't even endorsed Gideon yet!

What's he waiting for? Given his apparently popularity, it could really help. Maybe he's waiting until closer?

He made a point of refusing to endorse either candidate much earlier in the cycle.

[Pollster]

2016 3rd party voters, of which there are a lot in Iowa.

We’ve seen multiple polls now showing 2016 “someone else” voters going roughly 65/35 for Biden and 85/15 for Senate Dems.

[morgieb]

Pro-choice voters who like Trump on trade issues.

But I agree with TAR that I'm a bit skeptical on these types.

[morgieb]

Looks like they may exist. Who are they? Also, while Greenfield is polling decently, I'm still curious as to why national Democrats anointed her when she's never held elected office and her last run ended in failure.

B/c "We need more women in the Senate so that it truly represents the demographics of this country!" But they knew this seat was a longshot so they didnt want their potential future stars(Axne, Finkenauer) to run

Given the trends, it made no sense not to run the "stars" while they still had half a chance.

Hindsight is 2020. I think Finkenauer, Golden, and McBath are going to regret not having run for Senate this year in a Biden midterm.

Very much a case of Hindsight is 2020 for at least Finkenauer and Golden. Last year the average feeling around Finkenauer was that it wasn't worth giving up a 50/50 seat for a long shot Senate bid (which I agreed with) and Collins wasn't in such a dire situation either (but even then it's still better tactially for Gideon to run and Golden to stay where he was)

Not recruiting McBath though is a big mistake, by now a Generic D should easily win GA-06 and she definitely would've made a stronger candidate than Ossoff or Warnock.

[SnowLabrador]

Voters in smaller towns who generally lean conservative but can be persuaded by local politics, and feel that Greenfield has more of a personal connection with their community than Ernst

Honestly, that sounds reasonable enough.

[Xing]

There aren’t going to be tons of Trump/Democratic Senate Candidate voters in general, but I’ve explained before why I think there is potential for more of these voters to exist than Biden/Republican Senate Candidate voters.

While there were more Clinton/Republican downballot voters in 2016, Trump/Democratic downballot voters did exist, and I think that at least some Trump voters who voted Democratic downballot May continue doing so this year. They could be voters thinking “screw the system/incumbents” or the small percentage of Democrats who actually like Trump. While there will still be some Biden/Republican voters this year, I think Republicans lost a great deal of crossover appeal by aligning themselves with Trump, and we saw that in the 2018 midterms, where House Republicans who won easily in 2016 lost their seats in Romney/Clinton districts and Romney/Trump districts which trended Democratic, and often did worse than Trump in 2016.

While there will obviously be places where the Republican overperforms Trump (Collins in ME, for example), I think this could explain why we often see Republicans underperforming Trump in AZ, IA, and NC. Ernst and Tillis won’t underperform him by 5%, but a 1-2% underperformance is possible, and that could be enough for either of them to lose even if Trump is narrowly winning their state.

[Heebie Jeebie]

Eastern Iowa Obama-Trump voters who are just slightly too deep into the Trumpist cult to vote Biden but who have disliked Ernst since the beginning (because they were Democrats when she was elected).

I live in east Iowa and I can confirm these types exist.  There aren't a lot of them, but they're here.

[PAK Man]

Well, saying her last run ended in "failure" is a harsh way of putting it. She was the Dem's pick for IA-03 last cycle, and probably would have won the primary/defeated David Young if her campaign manager hadn't lied about the signatures. Mere 72 hours before the deadline, she announced this and said she was going to get her signatures all over again, with help from even her rivals. And when she came up short, she announced she'd stand by the state's ruling. I'm sure Democrats appreciated her honesty and oppenness (they said there's really no way anyone would have found that out, so her owning up to it showed integrity and that she disagreed with what her staffer did).

Plus, the Vilsacks are done with public office (based on people I know who are more involved in IA politics than I am), Finkenauer and Axne are waiting to seek higher office, State Auditor Rob Sand is going to run for governor in 2022 (from what I hear) and he just got elected (it doesn't make sense for him to jump ship and immediately run for senate - that would make him look like an opportunist and I guarantee would ruin his career), State Treasurer Mike Fitzgerald and Attorney General Tom Miller aren't leaving their posts, and JD Scholten was always going to run again in IA-04. I was on board with Greenfield from Day One.

[Heebie Jeebie]

Well, saying her last run ended in "failure" is a harsh way of putting it. She was the Dem's pick for IA-03 last cycle, and probably would have won the primary/defeated David Young if her campaign manager hadn't lied about the signatures. Mere 72 hours before the deadline, she announced this and said she was going to get her signatures all over again, with help from even her rivals. And when she came up short, she announced she'd stand by the state's ruling. I'm sure Democrats appreciated her honesty and oppenness (they said there's really no way anyone would have found that out, so her owning up to it showed integrity and that she disagreed with what her staffer did).

Plus, the Vilsacks are done with public office (based on people I know who are more involved in IA politics than I am), Finkenauer and Axne are waiting to seek higher office, State Auditor Rob Sand is going to run for governor in 2022 (from what I hear) and he just got elected (it doesn't make sense for him to jump ship and immediately run for senate - that would make him look like an opportunist and I guarantee would ruin his career), State Treasurer Mike Fitzgerald and Attorney General Tom Miller aren't leaving their posts, and JD Scholten was always going to run again in IA-04. I was on board with Greenfield from Day One.

I'm looking forward to Sand's gubernatorial run.  He has a fun Twitter presence. 

[freepcrusher]

I still feel like a Collin Peterson type is the best bet for Iowa democrats going forward