GA-Monmouth: Trump +3

[Adam Griffin]

Trump only doing one point better in GA than NV? That's not going to happen. If Trump wins NV, he's winning GA by double digits. If he's only down 3 in GA, Hillary is easily winning NV.

Not necessarily. Nevada has a lot of non college white voters that went Obama, that can fall to Trump. The non college white vote in GA was already solid GOP, and Trump is bleeding the educated white vote to Clinton.

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/08/11/upshot/donald-trumps-red-state-problem.html

     So Trump is geographically depolarizing the country? That's actually a pretty cool idea in terms of putting a lot more states in play.

It wouldn't surprise me if instead, it's being caused by the lack of Obama more than anything else: at the very least, his absence from the electoral environment is creating the initial conditions for both Democrats and Republicans, North & South, to jump ship.

[Adam Griffin]

I've done the math probably a dozen times across the forum at various points, but long story short: Clinton doesn't need anywhere near 30% of the white vote to win, and arguably, not even 25%.

If Clinton performs as well as Obama did in 2008 among all racial groups (23% among whites & 89% among everybody else), she wins the state with 50-51% of the vote.

A more balanced scenario might have Hillary garnering 25% of the white vote and around 85% of the rest in order to get to a majority. However, we have to factor in Johnson, which lowers the share of whites that she needs.

No matter how you dice it, Clinton can likely win GA with the 23% of whites that both Kerry received in 2004 and Obama received in 2008.

[Adam Griffin]

Despite the polls, I'm doubtful she can keep his % among black voters...
http://www.cnn.com/election/2014/results/state/GA/senate/
Perdue got 7% in 2014 after all.

She doesn't actually need it in what is appearing to be the likely scenario. Getting the 98% like Obama did in 2008 would actually make the overall non-white vote closer to 90-91% Democratic (rather than the 89% figure in 2008); because there are slightly more non-white voters than in 2008 and because Latinos/Asians are swinging Democratic. Blacks being 95% Democratic would probably be enough to balance it all out.

However, because Johnson pulling an extra couple of points is now also a reality, that number could be lowered even more. If Johnson gets 2.5%, then Hillary would be in a statistical tie with Trump if she merely got 23% of the white vote, 92% of the black vote and 65% of the rest (85% of the non-white vote).