Biden approval ratings thread, 1.0

[pbrower2a]

Beautiful poll this morning 🌅🌅 Rubio and DeSantis only up 2 49/47

At this stage, incumbent Governors and Senators are usually blowing out challengers in states that usually lean in the partisan direction of those States.

Could this be abortion as an issue?

Ironically, abortion is a right in Cuba (a country with practically no human rights) and a crime in Florida. I almost never praise Cuba at the expense of Florida on anything, but this time I do.

Extreme anti-abortion stances are not pro-life; they are pro-death.  Most people who are for abortion rights would try to talk someone out of an abortion if the reasons offered are hollow. Medical necessity and rape (including statutory) are valid causes that I would never talk a woman (or girl if underage -- that is not sexist) out of for a safe or medically-necessary abortion.

[Adam Griffin]

Beautiful poll this morning 🌅🌅 Rubio and DeSantis only up 2 49/47

At this stage, incumbent Governors and Senators are usually blowing out challengers in states that usually lean in the partisan direction of those States.

Could this be abortion as an issue?

Ironically, abortion is a right in Cuba (a country with practically no human rights) and a crime in Florida. I almost never praise Cuba at the expense of Florida on anything, but this time I do.

Extreme anti-abortion stances are not pro-life; they are pro-death.  Most people who are for abortion rights would try to talk someone out of an abortion if the reasons offered are hollow. Medical necessity and rape (including statutory) are valid causes that I would never talk a woman (or girl if underage -- that is not sexist) out of for a safe or medically-necessary abortion.

There's not much reason to ever take Florida polling seriously:

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

What gets me about these polls is that these are Pre Election polls not Exit polls we will find out in 8 weeks when we get Exit polls

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

Beautiful poll this morning 🌅🌅 Rubio and DeSantis only up 2 49/47

At this stage, incumbent Governors and Senators are usually blowing out challengers in states that usually lean in the partisan direction of those States.

Could this be abortion as an issue?

Ironically, abortion is a right in Cuba (a country with practically no human rights) and a crime in Florida. I almost never praise Cuba at the expense of Florida on anything, but this time I do.

Extreme anti-abortion stances are not pro-life; they are pro-death.  Most people who are for abortion rights would try to talk someone out of an abortion if the reasons offered are hollow. Medical necessity and rape (including statutory) are valid causes that I would never talk a woman (or girl if underage -- that is not sexist) out of for a safe or medically-necessary abortion.

There's not much reason to ever take Florida polling seriously:

That's less than two points off.

[Adam Griffin]

That's less than two points off.

Huh? Presumably you're referring to candidate percentages. I prefer margin since that is what decides elections:

2016: 2.8
2018: 3.2
2020: 4.6

It's the consistency of the dynamic: Republicans are consistently underestimated in Florida, regardless of climate. It's an awful lot like the Midwest, where Republican overperformances of 3-5 points are now common.

If you want to look at candidate vote share, however, then we can - which the past 3 top-ticket races in Florida have seen the Democratic candidate receiving roughly the same share of the vote that they're showing in pollster aggregates around Labor Day. In the case of Crist and Demings, 538 & RCP averages currently have them at 45%...

Or we can look at margin and take the average miss of Labor Day aggregates relative to performance and see what it would suggest for a final margin:

RCP
Rubio +5.8
DeSantis +7.5

538
Rubio +6.6
DeSantis +9.0

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The latest poll has Demings down 50)48 it's very close

[GeorgiaModerate]

IBD/TIPP (A+ at 538), Sep. 7-9, 1277 adults (1-month change):

Approve 46 (+7)
Disapprove 48 (-5)

[Sir Mohamed]

IBD/TIPP (A+ at 538), Sep. 7-9, 1277 adults (1-month change):

Approve 46 (+7)
Disapprove 48 (-5)

I don't remember who it was, but someone here a few weeks ago predicted Biden may be at ~46 vs. 48% at the year's end. Turns out that might happen sooner. At the time, I thought this wasn't realistic.

[wbrocks67]

IBD/TIPP (A+ at 538), Sep. 7-9, 1277 adults (1-month change):

Approve 46 (+7)
Disapprove 48 (-5)

Wow. And this pollster has been pretty bearish with Biden results for a while too.

[Podgy the Bear]

IBD/TIPP (A+ at 538), Sep. 7-9, 1277 adults (1-month change):

Approve 46 (+7)
Disapprove 48 (-5)

Looks like all of last month's events are bearing fruit.  And Biden's speech of September 1 didn't hurt.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

IBD/TIPP (A+ at 538), Sep. 7-9, 1277 adults (1-month change):

Approve 46 (+7)
Disapprove 48 (-5)

Looks like all of last month's events are bearing fruit.  And Biden's speech of September 1 didn't hurt.

But Fuzzy told me that True Patriots™ will begin to disapprove of Biden after the speech even though they already did.

[It’s so Joever]

IBD/TIPP (A+ at 538), Sep. 7-9, 1277 adults (1-month change):

Approve 46 (+7)
Disapprove 48 (-5)

Holy sh**t what a jump.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

IBD/TIPP (A+ at 538), Sep. 7-9, 1277 adults (1-month change):

Approve 46 (+7)
Disapprove 48 (-5)

Holy sh**t what a jump.

It's the female vote white females are gonna vote D, Ryan and Demings 2028😆😆😆

We need a Secularist Trifecta to end the Filibuster

[Comrade Funk]

Democrats and Dem-leaners are returning home. That's what happens when you dO SoMeThInG and call out the GOP.

[tagimaucia]

Still could just be a overly pro-Biden sample in this particular poll, but IBD/TIPP is really the closest thing to an unimpeachable national pollster out there.  They've both been very good for a very long time, *and* nailed 2020 (for most pollsters where the first thing is true, the second isn't).

Really wish they did a congressional ballot question though.

[Horus]

Anyone think there's a chance Biden and the Dems are peaking like a month too early? Biden should sign an executive order on weed or something else that's popular to keep it up.

[prag_prog]

I think its mainly progressive and young Dem leaning voters coming home over the last month and also probably some improvement among Indies due to gas prices dropping.

[wbrocks67]

Anyone think there's a chance Biden and the Dems are peaking like a month too early? Biden should sign an executive order on weed or something else that's popular to keep it up.

Voting starts in many states in the next few weeks, so I'd say he's peaking (if he is) at close to the right time as we head into this final stretch

[Horus]

Anyone think there's a chance Biden and the Dems are peaking like a month too early? Biden should sign an executive order on weed or something else that's popular to keep it up.

Voting starts in many states in the next few weeks, so I'd say he's peaking (if he is) at close to the right time as we head into this final stretch

From your mouth to God's ear.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

What's going to cause Biden and the Dems to significantly drop between now and election day is the big question. Gas prices are steadily dropping and though they could hit a floor it's very unlikely they'll go back to the spring numbers we had. Inflation in general is also slowing and even if it picks up again it probably won't be in any notably recognizable amount before the end of the year. Due to that we probably won't see any economic shocks or massive drops in the stock market or spikes in unemployment. Dobbs motivated Democrats and they're obviously just not going to forget about that in the next two months. And of course the Trump news and scandals are going to keep developing and we'll keep hearing about what he had at Mar-a-Lago and January 6 so the GOP will keep getting pounded in optics. And Russia is getting routed now and it would take quite the turnaround for bad international news to blow up.

The only event I could see being an issue would be a serious scandal hitting that people actually care about, ie not Hunter Biden or the Durham investigation. At this point though it's tough to see what type of Biden Admin scandal the median voter would care about more than Trump's stuff could even happen. Trump raised the bar for severity of scandals so high that it seems almost all politicians almost get a free pass now.

[It’s so Joever]

What's going to cause Biden and the Dems to significantly drop between now and election day is the big question. Gas prices are steadily dropping and though they could hit a floor it's very unlikely they'll go back to the spring numbers we had. Inflation in general is also slowing and even if it picks up again it probably won't be in any notably recognizable amount before the end of the year. Due to that we probably won't see any economic shocks or massive drops in the stock market or spikes in unemployment. Dobbs motivated Democrats and they're obviously just not going to forget about that in the next two months. And of course the Trump news and scandals are going to keep developing and we'll keep hearing about what he had at Mar-a-Lago and January 6 so the GOP will keep getting pounded in optics. And Russia is getting routed now and it would take quite the turnaround for bad international news to blow up.

The only event I could see being an issue would be a serious scandal hitting that people actually care about, ie not Hunter Biden or the Durham investigation. At this point though it's tough to see what type of Biden Admin scandal the median voter would care about more than Trump's stuff could even happen. Trump raised the bar for severity of scandals so high that it seems almost all politicians almost get a free pass now.

Do NOT tempt fate.

[wbrocks67]

Yeah, knocks on wood... the only forseeable thing that may drive major headlines is likely any more FBI updates and the 1/6 commission starting back up, both of which are obv not good for the GOP.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

If this was one of those Biden -35 polls you all would be dismissing it and treating it like an outlier. This one should be too until proven otherwise

[President Johnson]

IBD/TIPP (A+ at 538), Sep. 7-9, 1277 adults (1-month change):

Approve 46 (+7)
Disapprove 48 (-5)

Yeeeees, baby, heat up! He needs to continue with this communcation style, keeping pushing on the issues the public largely sides with him while the economy remains in good condition and Republicans remain way too extreme.

[wbrocks67]

If this was one of those Biden -35 polls you all would be dismissing it and treating it like an outlier. This one should be too until proven otherwise

Not really an outlier when Biden's approval has been inching up and we've now had multiple polls over the last week or two show 45% approval.