MT-Sen 2024 Megathread: Unbeatable Titan Tester

[SnowLabrador]

https://twitter.com/politico/status/1758265082813808707

lol

How utterly pathetic. He's not even willing to go down with the ship - as soon as things get a bit tough, he drops out.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

He should run as an independent

[Torrain]

Is there something else going on with Rosendale? To hear some of the DC press corps tell it - there's something from oppo research that might sink his political career altogether.

Rumour is that he might not even run for his House seat again - and he's just put out a statement saying he's going to retreat and consider what's best for his family...

“Over the next few days I will be back home in Montana with my family and will prayerfully consider what is next.”

[Woody]

That's what he get for ghosting Trump. Two faced yokel thought he could come back and pretend nothing happened.

[AncestralDemocrat.]

https://twitter.com/reesejgorman/status/1756042170644021501?t=obQU1ytbdeH2j5kn27...

Done and dusted. Tester will have a very tough race ahead of him facing Sheehy.

Sheehy has no chance, he'll even lose the primary by a large margin.

Sarcasm ?

He has the Trump endorsement and fundraising advantage.. he'll easily win the primary.


General is a tossup at best, Tester is going to outrun Biden by 15-20 points in margin given the traditional anti incumbent swing in Montana.

Didn't even take a week lol.

[JMT]

This whole thing is just so odd. If Rosendale had announced a Senate bid a year ago, he’d probably be the frontrunner. Or if he decided to run for reelection much earlier, he would’ve easily won again. Now he’s jeopardized his house seat due to primary challengers. I just fail to see any logic here… what was Rosendale thinking?

I feel like politicians sometimes inexplicably do things that harm their own political careers. For instance:

-Matt Rosendale: see above
-Kyrsten Sinema: alienating her Democratic base and switching parties. If she had just voted like a generic Democrat, she probably would’ve been reelected this year.
-Victoria Spartz: announcing her retirement, alienating her colleagues, threatening to resign, then declaring to run again. What was that about??

[Tekken_Guy]

This whole thing is just so odd. If Rosendale had announced a Senate bid a year ago, he’d probably be the frontrunner. Or if he decided to run for reelection much earlier, he would’ve easily won again. Now he’s jeopardized his house seat due to primary challengers. I just fail to see any logic here… what was Rosendale thinking?

I feel like politicians sometimes inexplicably do things that harm their own political careers. For instance:

-Matt Rosendale: see above
-Kyrsten Sinema: alienating her Democratic base and switching parties. If she had just voted like a generic Democrat, she probably would’ve been reelected this year.
-Victoria Spartz: announcing her retirement, alienating her colleagues, threatening to resign, then declaring to run again. What was that about??

Lauren Boebert: Carpetbag to a safe R but anti-MAGA seat because you’re at risk of losing your Trump+8 seat.

[oldtimer]

https://twitter.com/reesejgorman/status/1756042170644021501?t=obQU1ytbdeH2j5kn27...

Done and dusted. Tester will have a very tough race ahead of him facing Sheehy.

Sheehy has no chance, he'll even lose the primary by a large margin.

Sarcasm ?

He has the Trump endorsement and fundraising advantage.. he'll easily win the primary.


General is a tossup at best, Tester is going to outrun Biden by 15-20 points in margin given the traditional anti incumbent swing in Montana.

Didn't even take a week lol.

I'll laugh when Tester burries Sheehy under a pile of manure.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Good. Sheehy is weaker. Still worried about Tester, but at least he has a chance now

[AncestralDemocrat.]

https://twitter.com/reesejgorman/status/1756042170644021501?t=obQU1ytbdeH2j5kn27...

Done and dusted. Tester will have a very tough race ahead of him facing Sheehy.

Sheehy has no chance, he'll even lose the primary by a large margin.

Sarcasm ?

He has the Trump endorsement and fundraising advantage.. he'll easily win the primary.


General is a tossup at best, Tester is going to outrun Biden by 15-20 points in margin given the traditional anti incumbent swing in Montana.

Didn't even take a week lol.

I'll laugh when Tester burries Sheehy under a pile of manure.

Given your takes on this race, I expect Tester to declare his retirement within the month.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Tester is a big fundraiser for the DSCC and he recruited Peters to be chairman Rs haven't defeated a single D inc since 2018

[Pheurton Skeurto]

https://twitter.com/politico/status/1758265082813808707

lol

HAHAHAHA wow what a loser

I'm going to demand my accolades when Tester cruises to re-election. I'm staking my claim as someone who believes Tester and Brown will be re-elected. I will be vindicated.

[Progressive Pessimist]

https://twitter.com/politico/status/1758265082813808707

lol

HAHAHAHA wow what a loser

I'm going to demand my accolades when Tester cruises to re-election. I'm staking my claim as someone who believes Tester and Brown will be re-elected. I will be vindicated.

I hope so. Democrats keeping the Senate at all is almost like gaining two seats now that Manchin and Sinema are leaving.

[ProgressiveModerate]

I'm still keeping this at lean R, however, if more polls consistently show Tester at or close to 50% I may consider moving the rating down. There were a few odd polls early in 2018 that showed Tester getting smtg crazy like 55% of the vote albeit they were by low quality pollsters.

What was consistent in 2018 is most reputable pollsters consistently showed him in the 46-50% range. If we see that again, I may move this back to tossup, even tilt or lean D if there are other positive signs.

I think the thing people really underestimate is how favorable turnout was for Ds in MT in 2018; that will be hard if not impossible to replicate in a Pres cycle. Tester really needs to hope places like Missoula and Bozeman have grown enough since 2018 lol.

[Roll Roons]

I'm still keeping this at lean R, however, if more polls consistently show Tester at or close to 50% I may consider moving the rating down. There were a few odd polls early in 2018 that showed Tester getting smtg crazy like 55% of the vote albeit they were by low quality pollsters.

What was consistent in 2018 is most reputable pollsters consistently showed him in the 46-50% range. If we see that again, I may move this back to tossup, even tilt or lean D if there are other positive signs.

I think the thing people really underestimate is how favorable turnout was for Ds in MT in 2018; that will be hard if not impossible to replicate in a Pres cycle. Tester really needs to hope places like Missoula and Bozeman have grown enough since 2018 lol.

The numbers on growth plus educational attainment... might not actually be so bad for Tester?

Of the six largest counties in the state, Cascade is the least college-educated at only 27%, but also had by far the slowest growth at only 0.5%. Between 2020 and 2022, Missoula (45% college-educated) grew 2.6%, Gallatin (52% college-educated) grew 5% and Lewis & Clark (42% college-educated) grew 4%.

The big Republican counties of Flathead and Yellowstone respectively grew by 7.2% and 3.1%, but those counties are both around 34-35% college educated, which is right around the national average. That tells me that growth in these counties may not be automatic bad news for Tester, and he can narrow the margins if he plays his cards right.

I'm far from an expert on the state so I could be completely wrong, but data is data and it's something to chew on.

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

If Trump does turn the RNC into an extension of his grifting operationcampaign, that will likely help Tester a little as well.

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

This whole thing is just so odd. If Rosendale had announced a Senate bid a year ago, he’d probably be the frontrunner. Or if he decided to run for reelection much earlier, he would’ve easily won again. Now he’s jeopardized his house seat due to primary challengers. I just fail to see any logic here… what was Rosendale thinking?

I feel like politicians sometimes inexplicably do things that harm their own political careers. For instance:

-Matt Rosendale: see above
-Kyrsten Sinema: alienating her Democratic base and switching parties. If she had just voted like a generic Democrat, she probably would’ve been reelected this year.
-Victoria Spartz: announcing her retirement, alienating her colleagues, threatening to resign, then declaring to run again. What was that about??

Lauren Boebert: Carpetbag to a safe R but anti-MAGA seat because you’re at risk of losing your Trump+8 seat.

Her existing seat wasn't safe for her. Being a committed MAGAT wasn't enough once her constituents got to know her. She won re-election in 2022 by less than 600 votes out of over 300,000 cast, and she's done nothing to improve her reputation with them since. (I have acquaintances in that part of Colorado, and she's both awful at constituent service, and considered an embarrassment by many conservatives.)

The 4th's circus of an open primary is going to make things somewhat up in the air, but the voters don't seem to have a good impression of either Boebert or her blatant carpetbagging. I would guess that she loses in the primary.

[Tekken_Guy]

This whole thing is just so odd. If Rosendale had announced a Senate bid a year ago, he’d probably be the frontrunner. Or if he decided to run for reelection much earlier, he would’ve easily won again. Now he’s jeopardized his house seat due to primary challengers. I just fail to see any logic here… what was Rosendale thinking?

I feel like politicians sometimes inexplicably do things that harm their own political careers. For instance:

-Matt Rosendale: see above
-Kyrsten Sinema: alienating her Democratic base and switching parties. If she had just voted like a generic Democrat, she probably would’ve been reelected this year.
-Victoria Spartz: announcing her retirement, alienating her colleagues, threatening to resign, then declaring to run again. What was that about??

Lauren Boebert: Carpetbag to a safe R but anti-MAGA seat because you’re at risk of losing your Trump+8 seat.

Her existing seat wasn't safe for her. Being a committed MAGAT wasn't enough once her constituents got to know her. She won re-election in 2022 by less than 600 votes out of over 300,000 cast, and she's done nothing to improve her reputation with them since. (I have acquaintances in that part of Colorado, and she's both awful at constituent service, and considered an embarrassment by many conservatives.)

The 4th's circus of an open primary is going to make things somewhat up in the air, but the voters don't seem to have a good impression of either Boebert or her blatant carpetbagging. I would guess that she loses in the primary.

I’ll be very surprised if she wins the primary. The primary electorate there is much less favorable to candidates like her than the 3rd’s is and the convention system should narrow out the field to ensure she doesn’t slip through a clown car.

If she does though she’s done in 2026.

[ProgressiveModerate]

I'm still keeping this at lean R, however, if more polls consistently show Tester at or close to 50% I may consider moving the rating down. There were a few odd polls early in 2018 that showed Tester getting smtg crazy like 55% of the vote albeit they were by low quality pollsters.

What was consistent in 2018 is most reputable pollsters consistently showed him in the 46-50% range. If we see that again, I may move this back to tossup, even tilt or lean D if there are other positive signs.

I think the thing people really underestimate is how favorable turnout was for Ds in MT in 2018; that will be hard if not impossible to replicate in a Pres cycle. Tester really needs to hope places like Missoula and Bozeman have grown enough since 2018 lol.

The numbers on growth plus educational attainment... might not actually be so bad for Tester?

Of the six largest counties in the state, Cascade is the least college-educated at only 27%, but also had by far the slowest growth at only 0.5%. Between 2020 and 2022, Missoula (45% college-educated) grew 2.6%, Gallatin (52% college-educated) grew 5% and Lewis & Clark (42% college-educated) grew 4%.

The big Republican counties of Flathead and Yellowstone respectively grew by 7.2% and 3.1%, but those counties are both around 34-35% college educated, which is right around the national average. That tells me that growth in these counties may not be automatic bad news for Tester, and he can narrow the margins if he plays his cards right.

I'm far from an expert on the state so I could be completely wrong, but data is data and it's something to chew on.

I think generally MT having a higher college attainment than it's rural neighbors is part of the reason it's a closer state. In general, MT's college education has increased faster than the US and based on the 2020 census the college attainment % was basically in line with the nation so likely slightly higher than the nation at large now.

Gallatin is probably the most important County listed. Bozeman's 2010-->2020 growth was very impressive with quite a few communities seeing 50 or even 100% increases in population. Gallatin County is also a County that is still politically pretty close (only voted for Biden by ~8%); if Dems could turn that into a 20-30% Dem vote margin and the County continues to grow, would really eat into Rs vote margins, albiet isn't enough to flip the state on it's own.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I am looking past 24 into 26 if Busse loses to Gianforte he will be nominated against Daines, Tester is a Rancher and will beat Sheely , so is Busse

[Ferguson97]

https://www.politico.com/live-updates/2024/02/26/congress/rosendale-denies-rumors-pregnant-staffer-00143336

Rep. Matt Rosendale’s office is threatening legal action against former Sen. Heidi Heitkamp after she said on a podcast that he dropped out of the Senate race because he impregnated a staffer.

Heitkamp, a Democrat who lost her seat to Sen. Kevin Cramer (R-N.D.) in 2018, made the allegation during an appearance on the “Talking Feds with Harry Litman” podcast. Rosendale dropped out of the race a few days ago, about a week after he officially announced he would run. It’s still unclear if he plans to seek reelection to his House seat.

“I think [the GOP] caucus may lose a member in the next couple days,” Heitkamp alleged. “Just to gossip a little bit: There’s a reason why Rosendale backed out of that Senate race — the rumor is he impregnated a 20-year-old staff person.”

Absolutely wild allegation…

[Pheurton Skeurto]

I was reading about this on Twitter and I thought it was just gossip but if Heidi Heitkamp said it, I'm more inclined to take it seriously...that's insane.

[Gass3268]

Good news for Tester.

https://twitter.com/MontanaMuckrake/status/1769856134285083120?s=20

[ProgressiveModerate]

Good news for Tester.

https://twitter.com/MontanaMuckrake/status/1769856134285083120?s=20

I wonder if this, combined with the abnormally high Senate spending will cause any dent in the Presidential margin in MT. The state is obviously very likely if not safe for Trump, but could it maybe only be like Trump + 12 or something?

[TML]

Good news for Tester.

https://twitter.com/MontanaMuckrake/status/1769856134285083120?s=20

I wonder if this, combined with the abnormally high Senate spending will cause any dent in the Presidential margin in MT. The state is obviously very likely if not safe for Trump, but could it maybe only be like Trump + 12 or something?

I don't think there's a direct correlation between ballot measure and partisan results. For example, in 2022 the pro-choice side of an anti-abortion ballot measure in Kentucky outran the Democratic Senate candidate there by 28 points. Similarly, in 2020 a marijuana legalization ballot measure in Montana passed by 14 points, outrunning Democratic statewide candidates on the same ballot by anywhere from 22 to 33 points.