Europe imposing lockdowns again. Could this help Trump?

[AGA]

Europe was never the best example of how to handle coronavirus.

[MATTROSE94]

Of course this will not help Trump. It just reinforces that the pandemic is serious, which Trump denies. Every second the focus is on COVID, it hurts Trump.

This is proof that lockdowns don't work.
I think it helps Trump. He can talk about what Biden would do rather than what he did.
He can't escape COVID.

In what way is this proof that lockdowns don't work? Lockdowns weren't imposed to eradicate the virus, only vaccines can achieve that. Lockdowns are a means to save lives and right now certain lockdown measures are required in Europe to save lives.

Why are lockdowns required in Europe and not required in the United States?

Because we don't want as many of our citizens to die as is happening in the states? What sort of question is that?

The total number of people who died in Europe is not much better than the total number of people who died in the US.
That's not the reason you are imposing a second lockdown. It's because of the sharp rise in the number of cases.

Europe has more cases, more fatalities and worse economy right now than the United States, which is evidence that Europe has handled coronavirus crisis poorly.

I expanded on my original post, have a look there. We are way more densely populated than the US, so not surprising that higher fatalities. Nevertheless, if you look at death rates per head of population for states like NY, CT, NJ, it's a lot higher than in Europe. We are responding to an increase in cases. If you don't need to, good, I'm pleased.

But its not a competition, its about saving lives. Certain sectors of the economy are struggling, but our governnents have put our taxes to good use in looking after those sectors and people who have lost their jobs, not a perfect job, but not bad. We're getting through it as a nation

I agree with your post. I also noticed that states with Republican governors or Republican state legislatures such as Texas, Florida, Georgia, Wisconsin, Tennesse, Arkansas, Iowa, North Dakota, South Dakota, Oklahoma, West Virginia, and Missouri did objectively worse with the Coronavirus than states with Democratic governors or Democratic legislatures such as New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Michigan, and Massachusetts.

[Middle-aged Europe]

"Europe is imposing lockdowns, that proves that lockdowns don't work" strikes me as curious kind of logic.

That's almost like saying "politicians want to put more police on the street, that proves that police doesn't work".

Of course the lockdowns worked, for a time. But then they were lifted which means the virus could spread more easily again. Lockdowns were always only a stop-gap measure until a vaccine arrives.

When the infection numbers go up, you impose the lockdown. Due to the lockdown, the numbers eventually fall. Because you don't want to burden society with a permanent lockdown, you lift it again as soon as the numbers are brought down in sufficient quantities. Eventually the infection numbers rise again though which means that in case that a vaccine hasn't been found in the meantime you may need another lockdown to buy yourself some more time.

Theoretically, Europe could have wiped out the virus already if they had kept up the lockdown for a couple more weeks or even months this spring. This is essentially what China did earlier. At the time when the lockdown was first gradually lifted in Germany sometime in late April a few experts had argued to that effect: that we could wipe out the virus entirely if we just keep on going for a little extra time. But, political and public pressure had become too strong at that point to give people back their freedom. Because unlike China, we weren't a dictatorship.

[Progressive Pessimist]

The desperation is getting old.

"I just burped. How will this help Trump?

[Ljube]

Trump mentioned problems in Europe during his town hall yesterday.
He also discredited the idea about a mask mandate quoting the CDC study findings that 85% of those who contracted COVID-19 wore masks constantly or frequently.
He actually misquoted the study by claiming that 85% of those who wear mask would contract COVID-19, but I think his pitch will resonate with the swing voters.

[Bootes Void]

Trump mentioned problems in Europe during his town hall yesterday.
He also discredited the idea about a mask mandate quoting the CDC study findings that 85% of those who contracted COVID-19 wore masks constantly or frequently.
He actually misquoted the study by claiming that 85% of those who wear mask would contract COVID-19, but I think his pitch will resonate with the swing voters.

No, also the us has some of the cases per capita worldwide. That ain't great

[Pericles]

People's minds are made up. I do wonder if Trump is a bit unlucky that the US's overall population is so high. If the US had the same per capita deaths but with a much smaller overall population, so like the 40,000 deaths the UK has, then maybe the emotional impact of the toll would be less.

[Hammy]

Why would something that shows the consequences of pretending it's over and making things go back to normal help somebody who wants to pretend it's over and make things go back to normal?

[Progressive Pessimist]

Europe backsliding doesn't somehow automatically make our situation better which, relative to our population, is still the worst in the world and continuing to get worse.

[urutzizu]

I am actually going to be a bit counter-intuitive here and say that there is at least potentially a case to be made that the US having it's surge in cases hit in middle of summer and the establishment of at least a certain degree of population immunity then was probably a good thing on balance, even if that was both unintentional and the result of very bad governance and never being able to control the virus in the first place. As opposed to Europe where we suppressed the Virus quite successfully through the summer, but then lost control in the Autumn as was to be expected when Schools and Universities reopen and society goes back to normal (which is something that not even the best contact tracing systems have been able to cope with) and are now going into Autumn and Winter, we are faced with more severe symptoms, more crowded heated&dry indoor spaces, coinciding with the flu season and as a result having to impose much more severe restrictions than most of the US had to during july-august (where most states got though with closing Bars and mask orders, whilst much of Europe is now forced to shut the Hospitality Sector or even Schools entirely, leading to much more economic damage). Europe probably did get over our heads due to our success compared to the US during the summer and thought we could control the Virus permanently without lockdown measures or population immunity, which simply isn't possible in a western society.

Of course this is entirely a theoretical exercise, and absolutely not a thought process that your average Voter in the US is going to go through. I think that were New York to experience some sort of massive second wave very soon, that could well help Trump's argument quite a bit, but developments in Europe are very unlikely to sway, if even reach, the average Voter.

[Hammy]

I am actually going to be a bit counter-intuitive here and say that there is at least potentially a case to be made that the US having it's surge in cases hit in middle of summer and the establishment of at least a certain degree of population immunity

Immunity from infection only lasts a few months.

[Non Swing Voter]

No, the majority of Americans know Trump screwed up coronavirus.  Anything that focuses more attention on coronavirus hurts Trump.

It's like when Comey at the very end was like "actually Hillary's emails were ok" - clearing her just brought attention back to the subject.  In this case the subject is very hard to avoid, which is why Trump is losing.  But it would be dumb for Trump to give anymore attention to it even if he thinks he can spin it positively.  People think he sucks on this issue, period.

[jamestroll]

And Biden is not in favor of locking the United States down..

[The Legend]

It shows the absolute incompetence of this administration to ignore covid guidelines. Every rally he keeps attending as cases skyrocket just makes him look worse and worse.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I look at Korean Baseball all the time and they are comfortable in wearing masks. Sports will have to be bubbalized for the foreseeable future, they aren't coming out with a vaccine anytime soon.  There is a flu vaccine that's it. There isn't a TB vaccine, there isn't Hepitites C vaccine which are all strans of the flu, I go to the doctor all the time

[Rand]

Europe was never the best example of how to handle coronavirus.

My husband will tell you that Vietnam takes this title. Then he will proceed to remind you nine or ten more times throughout the day.

[Former President tack50]

The term "lockdown" is grossly overused (and not specifically you, OP; the term gets thrown around in the media far too lightly).  Yes, there were some countries that enforced strict stay-at-home policies, but these haven't been in place for months (Italy lifted its order in May, for instance).  

In other words: it's not as though all of Europe has been under house arrest since March and they're now suddenly experiencing a surge in cases.  

Yeah the current so-called lockdowns here in Spain (which are only happening in Madrid region and select cities) are incredibly lenient compared to the old ones.

The new """lockdown""" basically means that you cannot leave your municipality, except for work and other essencial stuff. However within your municipality you can do whatever you want, including meeting up with friends and what not, just limited to 5 people. You can go outside and walk by yourself all you want. Bars and restaurants are still open until 10pm, although I think that in some places they are restricted to people living in the same household (not sure on this).

Meanwhile the old lockdown was pretty much home arrest for 47 million people. If you are out on the street without a good reason, you get fined 600€. No exceptions.

[Former President tack50]

The US will end up with probably 600,000 death of Coronavirus by the end of the year, whereas Europe might only have 300,000 total. The only European countries that really screwed up with their Coronavirus responses were the UK, Italy, Spain, and Portugal. The rest of Europe isn’t in that bad of shape to be honest with you due to the fact that lockdowns and stay at home orders were strictly enforced. I would say that Italy, Spain, and Portugal botched their handling of the Coronavirus pandemic due to the influence of the Catholic Church, whereas the UK handled the Coronavirus poorly due to Boris Johnson’s failed policies.

Spain 100% botched the COVID response, but out of all the causes for it, the Catholic Church is not one of them. The Church probably has 0 influence whatsoever in the current government. Even if Spain was to have a conservative led government the Church's influence would still be extremely limited (the Rajoy cabinet was certainly not religiously influenced outside a failed attempt at banning abortion)

Same thing applies in Italy and Portugal.

If you want to seek blame on something, you can look maybe at societal structure, or the governments not reacting fast or comprehensively enough or stuff like that; but not at the Catholic Church.

[Mike88]

The US will end up with probably 600,000 death of Coronavirus by the end of the year, whereas Europe might only have 300,000 total. The only European countries that really screwed up with their Coronavirus responses were the UK, Italy, Spain, and Portugal. The rest of Europe isn’t in that bad of shape to be honest with you due to the fact that lockdowns and stay at home orders were strictly enforced. I would say that Italy, Spain, and Portugal botched their handling of the Coronavirus pandemic due to the influence of the Catholic Church, whereas the UK handled the Coronavirus poorly due to Boris Johnson’s failed policies.

Spain 100% botched the COVID response, but out of all the causes for it, the Catholic Church is not one of them. The Church probably has 0 influence whatsoever in the current government. Even if Spain was to have a conservative led government the Church's influence would still be extremely limited (the Rajoy cabinet was certainly not religiously influenced outside a failed attempt at banning abortion)

Same thing applies in Italy and Portugal.

If you want to seek blame on something, you can look maybe at societal structure, or the governments not reacting fast or comprehensively enough or stuff like that; but not at the Catholic Church.

Exactly what Tack said. The Church has no influence what so ever regarding the handling of the pandemic. For example, here many city halls are closing down graveyards for the upcoming All Saints Day in November, against the wishes of the Church.

However, MATTROSE94 is right on one thing: Portugal is screwing up everything in this second wave. If in the first wave things were managed quite well by the government, now there's no strategy and it's all too little too late, unfortunately.

Regarding the topic title, I don't think Trump is going to benefit anything because the US isn't out of the woods yet also.

[Ljube]

Massive protests against the lockdown in Prague.

[Beet]

I think the idea that mass lockdowns could or should be imposed again in the U.S. are absurd, unless some truly apocalyptic stuff is happening. At this point, it's not going to be accepted by the American people. This is coming from someone who as an ultra-extremist back in March. We say listen to scientists, but if you are a scientist you have to take into account the human factor. Trying to convince people to obey lockdowns is like banging your head against the wall hoping for a result. It's not going to work, and it's not scientific.

You'll have to figure out some better way to handle COVID-19 than lockdowns. Some other possibilities are test and isolate, test and trace, pharmaceutical interventions, hoping that the IFR continues to drop, and herd immunity. That is the order of solutions I find to be most optimal at this time. I won't say that the lockdowns didn't do their job because they did flatten the curve when the virus appeared at its most deadly.

[Ljube]

Government of Ireland listening to scientists. Imposes six weeks lockdown. Retail stores fear they will not survive.

There are extreme scientists out there and listening to them is not the smartest thing to do.

[Ljube]

Czech Republic goes into full lockdown.

[Horus]

Czech Republic goes into full lockdown.

October surprise?

[Ljube]

Everywhere the toughest and most punishing lockdowns are being reintroduced. They will cripple the economy and these countries probably won't recover from them. At least those sectors of the economy hit hardest probably won't recover.

One million people in the US have been unemployed for six months. Their jobs aren't coming back if there is a new lockdown.

This is a very strong argument against Biden.