TX-SEN 2020 Megathread: Early Voting

[libertpaulian]

Cornyn the Class Clown:

https://twitter.com/JohnCornyn/status/1238878952644624390

[libertpaulian]

Hopefully Siegel wins over Gandhi.

Why?  Given that Ghandi's prospective district is diversifying, wouldn't he be a good nominee?

[libertpaulian]

I know this is probably because Texas has so many counties, a good number of which have very small populations, but it's amazing in elections like this and the 2018 Senate election how many more counties the winner carries than the loser despite the close margin.

This is a very valid observation. I remember reading a FiveThirtyEight article on the results of the 2018 Senate race. According to that article, Beto O'Rourke won the five largest counties (Harris, Dallas, Tarrant, Bexar, San Antonio) by 800,000 votes, while Ted Cruz won the remaining 249 counties by 1 million votes. Cruz's overall margin was 200,000, so the massive majorities which he garnered throughout much of rural and exurban Texas were enough for him to barely overcome O'Rourke's urban and suburban strength. However, as the state continues to trend left and as the urban areas explode in population, such majorities will not be enough for Republicans. And we may see that with the presidential race this year.

And Biden may likely do a tiny bit better than Beto and Hillary did among rural and exurban voters.