CA GOV 2021 - 2022 megathread

[Greedo punched first]

California could very well be a blue wave in 2022. Nunes, Garcia, Issa, and Steel could very well be given an unfavorable map. Was California in 2010 or 2014 a blue wave?

[Minnesota Mike]

California could very well be a blue wave in 2022. Nunes, Garcia, Issa, and Steel could very well be given an unfavorable map. Was California in 2010 or 2014 a blue wave?

Not a blue wave but the red wave most of the rest of the nation had never reached the west coast.

[Greedo punched first]

If the recall succeeds what does the replacement county map look like?

[ChiefFireWaterMike]

Just a heads up to all voters of California to vote YES on recall and Jeff Hewitt as the Replacement!

Jeff endorsed Larry Elder, btw.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Survey USA has a new poll out showing Newsom surviving 51-43; their previous poll (4 weeks ago) showed him losing 40-51.

https://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=f054d152-ceac-48dc-a422-2f22c7a00521

[brucejoel99]

This is how I'd vote:

Numero Uno: NO.
Numero Dos: RO KHANNA, representative for CA17

I didn't know you can write in names in the replacement vote?

I'm assuming you can; I haven't opened the ballot yet. But if you can't then I'm Lean or Likely Faulconer.

You can, as there's technically nothing stopping you from casting a write-in vote for Khanna on the replacement question, but that vote just won't be counted like a vote for Faulconer/etc. or a write-in vote for a filed write-in candidate would.

So a Khanna vote just won't be tabulated and counted?

Correct, a Khanna vote wouldn't be counted as a valid vote. If you want your vote to actually count, then you have to vote for either one of the 46 options listed on the ballot or a write-in candidate who actually filed a formal write-in candidacy.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Maybe a silly question, but if No wins, will we get to see what the second question vote preference was, or will that be hidden?

Also, even if Newsom survives by 5-10 points, he very well could lose Southern California, which would be kind of noteworthy.

[brucejoel99]

Maybe a silly question, but if No wins, will we get to see what the second question vote preference was, or will that be hidden?

Yes, the replacement question's results will be tabulated & published, regardless of whether or not they're relevant.

[Roll Roons]

Given California's infamously slow ballot counting, is it possible that we might not know if it succeeded on the 14th?

[Schiff for Senate]

This is how I'd vote:

Numero Uno: NO.
Numero Dos: RO KHANNA, representative for CA17

I didn't know you can write in names in the replacement vote?

I'm assuming you can; I haven't opened the ballot yet. But if you can't then I'm Lean or Likely Faulconer.

You can, as there's technically nothing stopping you from casting a write-in vote for Khanna on the replacement question, but that vote just won't be counted like a vote for Faulconer/etc. or a write-in vote for a filed write-in candidate would.

So a Khanna vote just won't be tabulated and counted?

Correct, a Khanna vote wouldn't be counted as a valid vote. If you want your vote to actually count, then you have to vote for either one of the 46 options listed on the ballot or a write-in candidate who actually filed a formal write-in candidacy.

Okay, thanks for clarifying that.

[RFK Jr.’s Brain Worm]

Given California's infamously slow ballot counting, is it possible that we might not know if it succeeded on the 14th?

I think that it will be a bit faster since they can process the mail-in ballots when they arrive. I can’t remember if they can pre-count them or what, but they can at least partially process them before Election Day.

[AndyHogan14]

Given California's infamously slow ballot counting, is it possible that we might not know if it succeeded on the 14th?

I think that it will be a bit faster since they can process the mail-in ballots when they arrive. I can’t remember if they can pre-count them or what, but they can at least partially process them before Election Day.

It seems like my ballot has already been counted when I looked it up on the SOS website so maybe it will be faster than last time.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Given California's infamously slow ballot counting, is it possible that we might not know if it succeeded on the 14th?

I think that it will be a bit faster since they can process the mail-in ballots when they arrive. I can’t remember if they can pre-count them or what, but they can at least partially process them before Election Day.

It seems like my ballot has already been counted when I looked it up on the SOS website so maybe it will be faster than last time.

It helps that the the ballot has 2 questions instead of the usual dozens for a California ballot.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Survey USA has a new poll out showing Newsom surviving 51-43; their previous poll (4 weeks ago) showed him losing 40-51.

https://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=f054d152-ceac-48dc-a422-2f22c7a00521

19-point swing in a month. Sure Jan

[GeorgiaModerate]

Survey USA has a new poll out showing Newsom surviving 51-43; their previous poll (4 weeks ago) showed him losing 40-51.

https://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=f054d152-ceac-48dc-a422-2f22c7a00521

19-point swing in a month. Sure Jan

The first one was by far the worst for Newsom of all polls to date.  It was clearly an outlier.

[StateBoiler]

Politico.com article saying Democrats are scared of weak Latino turnout and slowly trending Republican as Newsom is compared to a stale Mexican Coke.

https://www.politico.com/news/2021/08/31/democrats-latino-turnout-california-recall-508012

Article does have a Republican Latino political consultant saying he's seeing no change in data as far as how Latinos are going to vote, analysts are just hopped up about it.

I know people say the redistricting commission is independent, but this recall is going to lead to some changing narratives as far as drawing districts if some parts of the voting population are shifting.

[wbrocks67]

Politico.com article saying Democrats are scared of weak Latino turnout and slowly trending Republican as Newsom is compared to a stale Mexican Coke.

https://www.politico.com/news/2021/08/31/democrats-latino-turnout-california-recall-508012

Article does have a Republican Latino political consultant saying he's seeing no change in data as far as how Latinos are going to vote, analysts are just hopped up about it.

I know people say the redistricting commission is independent, but this recall is going to lead to some changing narratives as far as drawing districts if some parts of the voting population are shifting.

The article also conveniently sites the one poll where Latinos were 50/50 on recall, and now the new SurveyUSA poll has blown that narrative out of the water. But of course, never let actual facts get in the way of a POLITICO "dems in dissaray" narrative...

[wbrocks67]

Total ballots returned = 4,094,635
Dems 2,216,125 (54.1%)
Reps 974,878 (23.8%)
Ind/Other 903,632 (22.1%)

Turnout = Dems (21%), Reps (18%), Ind/Other (14%)

Total ballots returned = 4,657,494
Dems 2,500,798 (53.7%)
Reps 1,122,577 (24.1%)
Ind/Other 1,034,119 (22.2%)

Turnout = Dems (24%), Reps (21%), Ind/Other (16%)

[Pedocon Theory is not a theory]

FYI this is the only correct choice on Question 2

[DrScholl]

Much like I thought the anti-recall advertising is stronger in the final days. This morning I saw an anti-recall ad with Bernie Sanders and that should do a lot to get progressives to mail their ballots back.

[Telesquare]

Just a heads up to all voters of California to vote YES on recall and Jeff Hewitt as the Replacement!

Jeff endorsed Larry Elder, btw.

He didn't "endorse" Elder.
https://twitter.com/Hewitt4CA/status/1430687872353325062

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/ryanmatsumoto1/status/1433109540115927046?ref_src=twsrc%5Etf...

[Cyrusman]

https://twitter.com/ryanmatsumoto1/status/1433109540115927046?ref_src=twsrc%5Etf...

How is that possible? No state in any election has higher turnout in a off year election vs a presidential election

[MATTROSE94]

https://twitter.com/ryanmatsumoto1/status/1433109540115927046?ref_src=twsrc%5Etf...

How is that possible? No state in any election has higher turnout in a off year election vs a presidential election

It could be ballot cannibalization. 

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

https://twitter.com/ryanmatsumoto1/status/1433109540115927046?ref_src=twsrc%5Etf...

How is that possible? No state in any election has higher turnout in a off year election vs a presidential election

It could be ballot cannibalization. 

Due to Delta surge, perhaps.