WI-SEN 2022 Megathread: Who stole my cheese?

[ElectionsGuy]

Johnson is going to run again. Otherwise he wouldn’t keep the dog and pony show going.

I want him to run again, partially to once again disprove the DC-minded concept of electability.

[ElectionsGuy]

Barnes is a hilariously bad candidate, I hope he wins the nomination.

[ElectionsGuy]

RoJo's culture warrior shtick has always been fairly performative (with all sides buying into it), so I’m not at all surprised by this. He’s about as much of a 'Trumpist' as Jon Tester is a 'populist.'

And that actually makes him even more reprehensible.

It’s more effective than (solely) running on stadard conservative economic policy, especially in a state in which base turnout is paramount and the GOP is so reliant on maximizing rural/small-town R votes to offset the unfavorable metro trends and a very energized D base. Granted, if he promotes conspiracy theories about the vaccine while privately believing in its safety, then yes, that would absolutely be reprehensible given that literal lives are at stake and the worst fears are being stoked by such rhetoric.

The only thing I've heard him say regarding vaccines is that nobody should be forced to take it, and that not every single person needs it equally. Up until mid-2021, that was a very mainstream position outside of upper-class liberals and not at all a conspiracy. However, it was very much a conspiracy in 2020 to say they were going to mandate vaccines for basic recreational activities like restaurants, or if you work for a company with 101 employees (not 99 though, covid doesn't infect those). Is there something else I'm missing? (asking anyone)

[ElectionsGuy]

Based on that wording, he's probably going to run for re-election.

Imagine if Johnson runs again while Sununu has declined to run for Senate. The opposite of what I would've expected a few months ago.

[ElectionsGuy]

Both Evers and Barnes have had nicer things to say about domestic abusers and child rapists than about Kyle Rittenhouse.

[ElectionsGuy]

Both Evers and Barnes have had nicer things to say about domestic abusers and child rapists than about Kyle Rittenhouse.

I think both are underdogs at this point. Evers has never been particularly popular, and Barnes seems like the kind of candidate who would do very poorly outside of Milwaukee and Madison, in both the WOW counties and the rural areas.

Yeah, I think Evers is more vulnerable than Walker was in 2018, and I both predicted Walker winning in 2014 and losing in 2018 (I actually underestimated Walker slightly both times).

[ElectionsGuy]

Likely R > Safe R.

I wouldn't go that far, but Johnson is favored. If I had to guess, he will defeat Barnes by around mid-single digits this fall.

It's quite likely to be republican wave environment.. and contrary to some analysis, Johnson is a strong incumbent.. he outperformed trump in 16.

It's borderline Safe R.

What happened between then and now

He has successfully appealed to his base while offending the elite establishment media, so they think he's a far more vulnerable incumbent than he actually is. Nobody gets underestimated more than candidates like Ron Johnson. He was supposed to be dead in 2016, and he won pretty easily anyway, this isn't that new. The increasing phenomenon of "The Republicans are talking about no-no topics" shaming by Dems and legacy media makes them very delusional about Democratic chances.

[ElectionsGuy]

It seems we're likely to get a Johnson vs Barnes race. While ultimately people who dislike Johnson and the GOP in general will not be persuaded in this race, it'll be easy for Johnson to paint Barnes' tenure as Lt Governor in a negative light, in a way he couldn't do with a more unknown candidate. At the same time, Johnson has had some controversies of his own, but most of it is "outside the guardrails" statements that really don't have much bearing on the reasons most people vote, and most confirm some of the positive appeals he has to large segments of people ("tells it like it is", "isn't afraid" "outsider", etc.)

The burden is on Barnes. He has to escape the vortex of Biden's approval rating and perception in Wisconsin, which is undoubtedly double digits in the negative in WI right now. He basically has to hope Johnson is so uniquely unpopular compared to other Republicans that he can squeak by as a protest, rather than getting elected because he and the Democrats are approved of (because they're not). Good luck.

[ElectionsGuy]

If this is the same Marquette that claims 67% of the national electorate has an unfavorable opinion of Trump (when RCP average has it around 50% right now) I would seriously not even consider those numbers for Ron Johnson. Maybe they're close to accurate, but Marquette has really gone off the rails in terms of accuracy and reliability over the past 3 years, and given their recent history, Johnson's new voters (Feingold --> Johnson) are definitely not going to be captured by them, whereas the Johnson --> D in 2022 voters definitely will.