How Much Longer Will the U.S. Remain a Superpower?

[tpfkaw]

In hindsight the Soviets were never a "superpower" in the first place; they were always more of a paper tiger.

(Also, Soviets + client states had a more comparable economic weight to the US).

Yeah but would you add Britain, Canada etc. to the US economic weight just because they were in the same alliance?

Britain and Canada don't do everything the US says, and the US wouldn't invade them if they didn't.

[k-onmmunist]

In hindsight the Soviets were never a "superpower" in the first place; they were always more of a paper tiger.

(Also, Soviets + client states had a more comparable economic weight to the US).

Yeah but would you add Britain, Canada etc. to the US economic weight just because they were in the same alliance?

Britain and Canada don't do everything the US says, and the US wouldn't invade them if they didn't.

They largely do as the US asks. And look what the US has done in countries as big as France and Italy to prevent left wing parties coming to power...

[tpfkaw]

They largely do as the US asks.

I'm about as anti-US foreign policy as it gets and to imply that the relationship of the UK and Canada to the US is similar to the USSR's Eastern European puppets is delusional.

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Asked their interim governments to delay elections so that Stalinists (of the "actually Stalinist" variety) wouldn't be elected?  Not really quite the same...

[k-onmmunist]

They largely do as the US asks.

I'm about as anti-US foreign policy as it gets and to imply that the relationship of the UK and Canada to the US is similar to the USSR's Eastern European puppets is delusional.

I didn't say it was the same, I was simply saying there's that sort of relationship nonetheless - the US will pressure Britain and Canada if they don't go along with their foreign policy goals.

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Asked their interim governments to delay elections so that Stalinists (of the "actually Stalinist" variety) wouldn't be elected?  Not really quite the same...

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CIA_activities_in_France
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CIA_activities_in_Italy

[tpfkaw]

They largely do as the US asks.

I'm about as anti-US foreign policy as it gets and to imply that the relationship of the UK and Canada to the US is similar to the USSR's Eastern European puppets is delusional.

I didn't say it was the same, I was simply saying there's that sort of relationship nonetheless - the US will pressure Britain and Canada if they don't go along with their foreign policy goals.

There is absolutely not that sort of relationship, Britain and Canada are not under regimes that instantly go along with the US's every dictate and imprisons everyone who disagrees, and they do not have to live in fear of US military occupation.

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Asked their interim governments to delay elections so that Stalinists (of the "actually Stalinist" variety) wouldn't be elected?  Not really quite the same...
[/quote]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CIA_activities_in_France
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CIA_activities_in_Italy
[/quote]

The CIA did some fairly dull (by spying standards) intelligence-gathering in both, and Italian leftists are fond of elaborate yet completely unfounded conspiracy theories?

[opebo]

Who is going to top her?  Certainly won't be India or the PRC anytime quickly.  Certainly not in the next 25 years.  Maybe the next 100 years...at the earliest..and that's with EVERYthing going perfectly for whichever country you want to pass us....which obviously won't happen and everything going to sh**t for the US....which it obviously won't (despite what the America haters here want).  The PRC collapsing into something else in the next 25 years is about 100 times more likely to happen than them to rival the US in that same time frame.

You've a good point generally but I think you're overstating it.  Baring some major catastrophe China will clearly equal the US economically within 25 years - the US economy is stagnant or declining in relative while the Chinese one is still growing fairly strongly.  I believe China's growth will slowly taper off, but the US has basically been in the doldrums for 30 years now, we can't just laugh it off.

[Dereich]

They largely do as the US asks.

I'm about as anti-US foreign policy as it gets and to imply that the relationship of the UK and Canada to the US is similar to the USSR's Eastern European puppets is delusional.

I didn't say it was the same, I was simply saying there's that sort of relationship nonetheless - the US will pressure Britain and Canada if they don't go along with their foreign policy goals.

There is absolutely not that sort of relationship, Britain and Canada are not under regimes that instantly go along with the US's every dictate and imprisons everyone who disagrees, and they do not have to live in fear of US military occupation.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Asked their interim governments to delay elections so that Stalinists (of the "actually Stalinist" variety) wouldn't be elected?  Not really quite the same...

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CIA_activities_in_France
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CIA_activities_in_Italy
[/quote]

The CIA did some fairly dull (by spying standards) intelligence-gathering in both, and Italian leftists are fond of elaborate yet completely unfounded conspiracy theories?
[/quote]

Be fair, the CIA has admitted to funding centrist parties in Italy when the communists were in danger of winning.

[Del Tachi]

The current growth rates in China, India and other parts of the developing world are only sustainable for as long as these nations do not develop a large middle class--middle classes are notorious for demanding things such as education, healthcare, welfare, etc. that the governments of these nations will not be in the position to supply such to such large populations.  Population decline is the most important factor in determining the long-term economic outlook of the "emerging powers". 

I think that Chinese GDP growth to start to slow, or even decline, in the next 10-15 and I expect that the United States will remain the world's largest economy throughout the duration of my lifetime.  The current chaos in the Eurozone has only reassured me of that fact...

[opebo]

I think that Chinese GDP growth to start to slow, or even decline, in the next 10-15 and I expect that the United States will remain the world's largest economy throughout the duration of my lifetime.  The current chaos in the Eurozone has only reassured me of that fact...

You do realize that China has almost four times as many people as the US, right?  They only have to reach a level of about 1/4 the US GDP per capita to equal the US economy in size.  I don't see how you will avoid a continued relative decline in the US per capita income and a continued relative increase in the per capita income in countries like China, India, etc. - this is simply the process of globalization: under capitalism owners will always prefer to pay workers less.

[The Mikado]

Chinese growth rates aren't sustainable in the long run, but they don't have to be.  China won't be able to continue growing at 8-10% a year forever, but after a certain point, a mature Chinese economy growing at 4-6% will still be gaining on the US very quickly.

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

The United States may not even exists in the next twenty years. A very speculative longshot, but we've seen strange and sudden collapses. I wouldn't bet on this my money now, though.

[opebo]

I wouldn't bet on this my money now, though.

Did you intend to sounds like Fiddler on the Roof here?

[Foucaulf]

Minimum of 50 years, barring sudden collapse. Even then North America should be economically dominant for a lifetime or so.

Even claims of the US not being the sole economic superpower are sketchy. GDP is an indicator of economic activity, which is still a distant thing from economic power. The Chinese will clearly have less purchasing power than Americans for a long time to come, but America will also lead in research and labour force quality. Just look at how the Chinese obsession with Apple products - an American company with tremendous influence in the nation. This type of qualitative economic power isn't going away soon.

(That, and China's experiencing a huge fall in investment right now... I'll find some articles about it if enough people ask)

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

Dunno, beginning of the end was 09/2001.

Till it actually turns crazy perhaps...

So much things would be changing in the coming years...

[Yelnoc]

We are moving towards a multi-polar world.  Since the fall of the Soviet Union, the United States has gone from a Super Power to, briefly, a "Hyperpower", but BRICs are catching up.  In a few decades, unless trends reverse, there will be no superpowers, merely regional powers.

[BritishDixie]

Hopefully not much longer.

Be careful what you wish for.