Chile Constitutional Referendum, September 4th 2022

[kaoras]

Lower middle class, apolitical, disaffected or disechanted with politics - thus vulnerable to Parisi's textbook populist and "anti-elite" message -, believed by experts to focus around the 30-40 age group with an apparent stronger base in the North that dates back to 2013.

Back in 2013 his base of independent voters leaned more to the center-right (hence why most, but not all, went for Matthei against Bachelet), but polling suggests he's picking up voters from across the political spectrum. Although, initially, most people believe he was pulling votes from Sichel and/or Kast, apparently Boric (!) ranked first in terms of the second preference of those Parisi voters, which sort of makes sense given the anti-establishment political climate.

That seems to be the objective answer, since, in strictly personal terms, I have a very low opinion of anyone who buys into his nonsense. Just as his campaign resembles a pyramid scheme, his online supporters behave very much like a cult.

Yeah pretty much. If anything the whole virtual campaign thing is holding him back, populism is a very fertile ground right now.

I read Parisi platform with a friend who is voting from him (he was previously going to vote for Kast so I didn't bother hin, tbh I was just grateful) and is full of inoffensive vaguely populist stuff, it doesn't look right-wing at all. I would say that most Parisi voters are not going to vote for anyone but him and the rest is going to split evenly between left and right.

[Lumine]

Lower middle class, apolitical, disaffected or disechanted with politics - thus vulnerable to Parisi's textbook populist and "anti-elite" message -, believed by experts to focus around the 30-40 age group with an apparent stronger base in the North that dates back to 2013.

Back in 2013 his base of independent voters leaned more to the center-right (hence why most, but not all, went for Matthei against Bachelet), but polling suggests he's picking up voters from across the political spectrum. Although, initially, most people believe he was pulling votes from Sichel and/or Kast, apparently Boric (!) ranked first in terms of the second preference of those Parisi voters, which sort of makes sense given the anti-establishment political climate.

That seems to be the objective answer, since, in strictly personal terms, I have a very low opinion of anyone who buys into his nonsense. Just as his campaign resembles a pyramid scheme, his online supporters behave very much like a cult.

Yeah pretty much. If anything the whole virtual campaign thing is holding him back, populism is a very fertile ground right now.

I read Parisi platform with a friend who is voting from him (he was previously going to vote for Kast so I didn't bother hin, tbh I was just grateful) and is full of inoffensive vaguely populist stuff, it doesn't look right-wing at all. I would say that most Parisi voters are not going to vote for anyone but him and the rest is going to split evenly between left and right.

Seems accurate, he doesn't seem to be hurting anyone in particular. Still, and even though I don't think it will happen, I can only wonder what might happen if, somehow (Boric collapse or Kast being overrated by polls) he got into the second round.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

The sexual harassment accusations against Boric (from his time in the student movement) are cropping up again, just like before the primaries. Maybe they’ll have an effect this time, now that he’s in the spotlight.

[kaoras]

The sexual harassment accusations against Boric (from his time in the student movement) are cropping up again, just like before the primaries. Maybe they’ll have an effect this time, now that he’s in the spotlight.

Given that is old, the press isn't giving that much coverage. It's on the rest of the candidates to make use of it or it will fade again. I also haven't seen anyone talking about this outside Twitter (where is mainly bots)

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

PC endorses the recent Nicaraguan elections, Boric “invites them to retract” their statement. Classic Apruebo Dignidad.

[kaoras]

PC endorses the recent Nicaraguan elections, Boric “invite them to retract” their statement. Classic Apruebo Dignidad.

Well, PC president said that it was a rogue declaration apparently. Also a mini PC generational warfare with Vallejos and Cariola condemning Nicaragua and older guys like Hugo Gutiérrez defending it.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

PC endorses the recent Nicaraguan elections, Boric “invite them to retract” their statement. Classic Apruebo Dignidad.

Well, PC president said that it was a rogue declaration apparently. Also a mini PC generational warfare with Vallejos and Cariola condemning Nicaragua and older guys like Hugo Gutiérrez defending it.

Mmm. Good to hear from the PC, although I don’t see it moving the needle at all among the haters and losers.

[kaoras]

Kast said that Pinochet was different from Nicaragua and Venezuela because he did "elections" and "didn't jail the opposition" (Of course he did, in fact, jail the opposition, including Michelle Bachelet for what its worth, but he also tortured them, killed them, throw them into the sea, burn them alive, rape them with dogs and exploited them with dynamite). Chilean Right at its finest, really.

So well, RIP any advantage Kast could get out of Nicaragua in the debate on Monday, lol.

[CumbrianLefty]

He didn't do any meaningful elections for 15 years, but details.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

but muh hugo gutierrez

[kaoras]

Several forbidden polls have been leaked.

CADEM (without undecideds)

Kast 32 | Boric 26 (+2) | Parisi 13 | Provoste 12 | Sichel 9 (-1) | MEO 7 (+1) | Artés 1 (-2)

Second Round, Kast 38 (-6) Boric 37 (-3)

Activa (without undecideds)

Kast 31,2 (+1.6) | Boric 29 (+3.3) | Parisi 12.9 (+2.1) | Provoste 10.7 (-4) | Sichel 8.2 (-4.1) | MEO 4.5 (-0.4) | Artes 3.5 (+1.5)

La Cosa Nostra

Kast 32 (+2) | Boric 31,7 (-4,3) | Provoste 13,8 | Sichel 11,1 | Parisi 6,5 (+1,5) | MEO 3,5 | Artés, 1,4)

Second Round: Boric 51 (-3) Kast 49 (+3)

Ok I guess, basically converging/herding

I honestly don't buy any of this. But the debate tomorrow will be decisive. In 2017 the last week debate sunk Guillier.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

Last debate is at 8 PM Chile time tonight. We’re in the home stretch.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

And Kast starts with a big Cuban flag. This is so dumb.

[kaoras]

And Kast starts with a big Cuban flag. This is so dumb.

Oh, he also had that Boric photo with a T-shirt with dead Jaime Guzman. He can't shine as before with so many people attacking.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

And Kast starts with a big Cuban flag. This is so dumb.

Oh, he also had that Boric photo with a T-shirt with dead Jaime Guzman. He can't shine as before with so many people attacking.

And then the moderator brought out a book! Loving the prop comedy hour.

[kaoras]

Kast looks so...cartoonish? Is weird.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

Boric Provoste and Sichel are giving Kast the thrashing he deserves. Artes said some weird sh**t about sex ed and MEO is also there.

[kaoras]

First part over. No clear losers or winners IMO.

[kaoras]

Kast kinda bad at the economy, especially when pressed by Sichel. But nothing fatal. So far this debate is still status quo.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

Kast is desperately trying to steal the title of El Cifras from Boric, but he’s not going to get the “KAST DOESN’T KNOW NUMBERS” headlines Boric had been getting because of course not.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

The sexual harassment accusations against Boric (from his time in the student movement) are cropping up again, just like before the primaries. Maybe they’ll have an effect this time, now that he’s in the spotlight.

Given that is old, the press isn't giving that much coverage. It's on the rest of the candidates to make use of it or it will fade again. I also haven't seen anyone talking about this outside Twitter (where is mainly bots)

And here it comes…

[kaoras]

The sexual harassment accusations against Boric (from his time in the student movement) are cropping up again, just like before the primaries. Maybe they’ll have an effect this time, now that he’s in the spotlight.

Given that is old, the press isn't giving that much coverage. It's on the rest of the candidates to make use of it or it will fade again. I also haven't seen anyone talking about this outside Twitter (where is mainly bots)

And here it comes…

He came across as well as was possible.

Kast very bad at a question concerning benefits for only married women (In Chile very few people get married, 75% of births are out of wedlock)

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

The sexual harassment accusations against Boric (from his time in the student movement) are cropping up again, just like before the primaries. Maybe they’ll have an effect this time, now that he’s in the spotlight.

Given that is old, the press isn't giving that much coverage. It's on the rest of the candidates to make use of it or it will fade again. I also haven't seen anyone talking about this outside Twitter (where is mainly bots)

And here it comes…

He came across as well as was possible.

Kast very bad at a question concerning benefits for only married women (In Chile very few people get married, 75% of births are out of wedlock)

Yeah, I was surprised none of the other candidates took it up. Not even MEO.

[Lumine]

Could have been worse for him, but Kast clearly lost his cool at least twice (including the gratuitous question to one of the moderators).

Not that he'll gain anything from the debate, but I'm pleased enough - or feel mostly represented by - with Sichel's performance and tone. I'll probably just vote for him and then go null in the Kast-Boric runoff.

Can't see Provoste getting the surge she's aiming for in spite of hard she tries. If anything, I wouldn't be surprised if Ominami gained a couple of points in spite of some arrogant answers.

[kaoras]

Could have been worse for him, but Kast clearly lost his cool at least twice (including the gratuitous question to one of the moderators).

Not that he'll gain anything from the debate, but I'm pleased enough - or feel mostly represented by - with Sichel's performance and tone. I'll probably just vote for him and then go null in the Kast-Boric runoff.

Can't see Provoste getting the surge she's aiming for in spite of hard she tries. If anything, I wouldn't be surprised if Ominami gained a couple of points in spite of some arrogant answers.

Yeah, those are my thoughts as well. The problem with MEO is that: 1)Boric is doing fine 2) most of the left still doesn't consider MEO seriously 3) Every leftist is terrified of Kast and mainly see Boric as the only choice (to much chagrin of many)

Provoste is totally absent.