Ontario general election 2018 - Results Thread

[Krago]

If the NDP wins Kiiwetinoong, they will end up with 40 members in their caucus:

- 8 incumbent white females
- 8 incumbent white males
- 7 new white females
- 7 new white males
- 5 new non-white females
- 5 new non-white males

[Krago]

The Cube Rule of British politics states that the ratio of the seats won by each party is equal to the ratio of the cubes of their popular vote.  So if a party gets twice the votes of another party, they should win eight times as many seats.

Applying the Cube Rule to the Ontario election would give these results:

PC 74, NDP 42, Lib 8

The actual numbers are: PC 76, NDP 40, Lib 7, Green 1

[Krago]

Until Doug Ford eliminates the political subsidies in his first budget, Ontario taxpayers will be paying $129.22 every three months to help Stop the New Sex-Ed Agenda.

Every political party that gets 2% in a riding is eligible for an allowance.  There is $6,250 allocated for each riding, divided proportionally to the votes cast.  In addition, political parties getting over 2% province-wide get 63.6 cents per vote received each quarter.

[Krago]

Question, are provincial-level ridings everywhere in Ontario identical to the federal-level ridings?

In Southern Ontario, yes. In Northern Ontario, there's a couple ridings which are different.

how different?

A couple of ridings (Kiiwetinoong and Mushkegowuk—James Bay) with smaller populations than the other ridings were created, and neither of these exist on the federal level.

The rest of the north still uses the 1996 federal riding boundaries, so they're not identical either.

There are 111 co-terminous ridings in Southern Ontario, federally and provincially.

In Northern Ontario, there are 10 ridings federally and 13 provincially.  The provincial boundaries for 9 of the seats were set by the 1992-3 Federal Electoral Boundaries Commission for Ontario, while the remaining 4 seats were determined last year by the Far North Electoral Boundaries Commission.

[Krago]

Question, are provincial-level ridings everywhere in Ontario identical to the federal-level ridings?

In Southern Ontario, yes. In Northern Ontario, there's a couple ridings which are different.

how different?

A couple of ridings (Kiiwetinoong and Mushkegowuk—James Bay) with smaller populations than the other ridings were created, and neither of these exist on the federal level.

The rest of the north still uses the 1996 federal riding boundaries, so they're not identical either.

There are 111 co-terminous ridings in Southern Ontario, federally and provincially.

In Northern Ontario, there are 10 ridings federally and 13 provincially.  The provincial boundaries for 9 of the seats were set by the 1992-3 Federal Electoral Boundaries Commission for Ontario, while the remaining 4 seats were determined last year by the Far North Electoral Boundaries Commission.

Was the commission really done three to four years earlier than the boundaries were put into law?

Correction: 1994-5 Federal Electoral Boundaries Commission for Ontario

The federal government (under two different parties) attempted twice to suspend the redistribution process.  Once they were successful, while the second time they were thwarted by the Senate.

[Krago]

The Liberals finished fourth behind the Greens in three ridings: Dufferin-Caledon, Guelph and Parry Sound-Muskoka.

The Greens did not finish second anywhere, but they finished fifth in four ridings: behind the Northern Ontario Party in Algoma-Manitoulin and Timiskaming-Cochrane, behind the Libertarians in Scarborough Centre, and behind an Independent candidate in Mississauga-Malton.  (P.S. I know a South Park fan that pronounces the name Liber-arians.)

The riding that came closest to matching the province-wide figures was Brampton South (PC 41.0%, NDP 33.8%, Lib 18.9%, Green 3.9%, Others 2.4%).

[Krago]

There is currently a bill (C-402 before the Senate that would change the names of several federal ridings.

The 2005 Representation Act contained provisions that would automatically change the name of the provincial riding whenever its federal counterpart did the same.  This section was removed from the 2015 Act.

This means that the MP for Mississauga-Streetsville will soon become the member for Meadowvale-Streetsville-Lisgar, and the MP for Nickel Belt will soon represent Greater Sudbury-Nickel Belt, but their provincial colleagues will keep the existing names.  At least for a while.

[Krago]

Here's the full list:

Cape Breton--Canso changes to Cape Breton--North Nova
South Shore--St. Margarets changes to South Nova
Sydney--Victoria changes to Cape Breton by the Sea
Bellechasse--Les Etchemins--Lévis changes to Lévis--Bellechasse--Etchemins
Jonquière changes to Jonquière–Haut-Saguenay
Manicouagan changes to Côte-Nord
Saint-Hyacinthe--Bagot changes to Saint-Hyacinthe--Acton
Mississauga--Streetsville changes to Streetsville--Meadowvale--Lisgar
Nickel Belt changes to Greater Sudbury--Nickel Belt
Charleswood--St. James--Assiniboia--Headingley changes to Winnipeg West--Headingley
Regina--Lewvan changes to Regina West
Calgary Signal Hill changes to Calgary West
Fort McMurray--Cold Lake changes to Fort McMurray--Lac La Biche--Cold Lake
Burnaby South changes to Burnaby--Douglas
Langley--Aldergrove changes to Langley--West Abbotsford
Mission--Matsqui--Fraser Canyon changes to Abbotsford--Mission--Fraser Canyon

[Krago]

Based on the NDP narrowest losses (in terms of pct of vote), here are the seats they would have needed to win to keep the PCs from a majority:

Ottawa West--Nepean (-0.3%)
Brantford--Brant (-1.1%)
Sault Ste. Marie (-1.3%)
Brampton West (-1.3%)
Kitchener--Conestoga (-1.6%)
Kitchener South--Hespeler (-1.8%)
Scarborough--Rouge Park (-2.3%)
Thunder Bay--Superior North (-2.7%)
Peterborough--Kawartha (-3.6%)
Cambridge (-4.5%)
Scarborough Centre (-5.1%)
Etobicoke--Lakeshore (-5.5%)
Scarborough--Guildwood (-5.7%)
Mississauga--Malton (-6.3%)
Brampton South (-7.2%)
Ajax (-8.1%)
Don Valley East (-8.5%)
Flamborough--Glanbrook (-9.4%)


And they would have needed to win these to gain a pluarality of seats:

Pickering--Uxbridge (-10.2%)
Whitby (-10.3%)


And they would have needed these to win a majority:

Kenora--Rainy River (-10.9%)
Burlington (-11.8%)
Ottawa South (-12.5%)

[Krago]

The Cube Rule of British politics states that the ratio of the seats won by each party is equal to the ratio of the cubes of their popular vote.  So if a party gets twice the votes of another party, they should win eight times as many seats.

Applying the Cube Rule to the Ontario election would give these results:

PC 74, NDP 42, Lib 8

The actual numbers are: PC 76, NDP 40, Lib 7, Green 1

Here's another thing I noticed.

Instead of having a complicated seat projection formula, if you just took the province-wide swing by party (Lib -19.08%, PC +9.19%, NDP +9.82%, Grn -0.22%, Oth +0.28%) and applied it to each riding based on the transposed 2014 votes, you would end up with 76 PCs, 40 New Democrats and 8 Liberals.

[Krago]

Ontario’s startling election in eight before-and-after maps

[Krago]

One thing I wanted to check was the results for Poll 716 in York-Simcoe - The Pipe and Slipper Home in Keswick ON.

The Pipe and Slipper has an interesting electoral history.  In 2014, it was the only poll won by the Libertarians.  And in 2007, there were 34 electors on the list, all 34 voted, and all 34 votes were cast for PC MPP Julia Munro.  A little bit of North Korea on Lake Simcoe.

According to the Global poll-by-poll results, the votes cast in Poll 716 were:
PC 785, NDP 327, Lib 147, Green 69

A few more ballots cast than in 2014.

[Krago]

The results in my local poll were:

566 Green
305 PC
303 NDP
155 Lib

Try to guess the riding.


Also, I got polled this evening by Mainstreet Research.  At first they asked me how I would vote if a provincial election were held today (!)  Then they asked me if I had heard about Mike Schreiner's comments about forming an 'alliance' with the Liberals to gain official party status at Queen's Park.  The follow-up question was to ask if I would be more or less likely to vote for Mike Schreiner if he did form such an alliance.

I think this was a Green-sponsored poll, but my friend is convinced the Liberals are behind it.

[Krago]

Here is a quick comparison between Toronto 2014 and Toronto 2018.  Notice the reduction in the Liberal (red) areas.


Toronto 2014




Toronto 2018

[Krago]

Ottawa - 2014 Provincial Election




Ottawa - 2018 Provincial Election