CT Redistricting 2020

[Sol]

Here's CT with a minority-influence district. Not required for the VRA and probably not even a very good map, but I thought it was interesting that it was possible.



Here's the link.

[Sol]

Also- something I think the Dems will try to do is take the town of Plainville from the 5th district and put it in the 1st. The (Republican) state rep there is Dr. William Petit, who is the survivor of a horrific home invasion in which his family was murdered. As a result, he has a pretty big platform on criminal justice issues, and even though he advocates for conservative, tough on crime policies, he is relatively uncontroversial and popular. I think the Democrats will draw his residence into a deep blue one to try and prevent a congressional run by him.

Doesn't CT require a 2/3rds majority to pass maps?

[Sol]

2022 seems likely to be a crushing Republican victory--and yeah, that's the kind of scenario where you do get incumbents like Hayes losing. That doesn't mean that she'll lose per se--but that candidates who are equivalent to her in terms of safety, like Kathleen Rice, Gottheimer, Perlmutter, etc. will have a decent shot of being the equivalent of Claudia Tenney or Steve Russell.

Uniform swing isn't real, elasticity exists, etc. etc. - but we'll see in November, maybe you're right.

Uniform swing isn't real--and that's certainly an argument for Hayes possibly losing. Suburban Connecticut has a fairly rich Republican tradition and is pretty elastic.