🇩🇪 Germany: ⬛️ CDU/CSU chancellor candidate for 2021

[Lord Halifax]

According to a Bild am Sonntag interview, Söder proposes that Merkel be involved in the decision on the nomination of the joint chancellor candidate, because no candidate could be successfully canvassing for votes without her endorsement.

So what does that mean? That Söder thinks Merkel has given up on Laschet, or that Söder doesn't want to be the candidate after all?

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

According to a Bild am Sonntag interview, Söder proposes that Merkel be involved in the decision on the nomination of the joint chancellor candidate, because no candidate could be successfully canvassing for votes without her endorsement.

So what does that mean? That Söder thinks Merkel has given up on Laschet, or that Söder doesn't want to be the candidate after all?

Probably the former; Söder is aware of the fact that many CDU politicians are quite skeptical of their sister party. However, he is also aware of the fact that Merkel seconds Söder's authoritarian handling of his strict and uncompromising lockdown policies, while clearly holding reservations against Laschet's laissez-faire attitude regarding his own anti-Corona policies.

[urutzizu]

https://www.reuters.com/article/idUSKBN2BS0RM?il=0

Laschet does the inevitable U-turn today and now calls for a hard lockdown, or as he terms it "Bridge-Lockdown" (the Idea is like, well, a bridge until enough people are Vaccinated, trying to invoke a more positive sense of a safe shore on the other side so to speak - instead of the tunnel metaphors that German Politicians have used previously where the light at the end too often has turned out to be a train)

Zero political instinct, zero strategy, this man. Has has managed to take every single stance under the sun on this Issue and somehow always too late, been forced to u-turn every single time, and has now crossed the point where everyone, including those who agree with him on his newfound strategy are now beating him up no matter what he does.

Whilst I don't believe that a word Söder says is in remotely good faith - and he has, on a pure, empirical basis presided over some of the worst infections and deaths in Germany, much worse than NRW - in terms of Strategy he has relegated Laschet to a flag in his whirlwind. At this stage Laschet should have just stuck to April 2020 Armin which is clearly what he liked most. He only had to wait until the minority fed up with all confinement measures is large enough, which is now, ride that ca. 30% which gets larger in the business associations, get the Welt/Bild people on side and he would be home dry by now. Instead he got everybody to hate him.

[President Johnson]

Laschet is a nice guy, but politically, he just doesn't have it. He got lucky in 2017 by winning a state election against a tired Hannelore Kraft. If he somehow becomes chancellor by vetoing Söder's candidacy and edging out SPD and Greens for a black-green coalition, I predict that his chancellorship won't last for a full term. Probably the shortest tenure in the federal republic since 1949.

[Lord Halifax]

Should the talk about Ralph Brinkhaus now being in play be taken seriously?

[Pick Up the Phone]

Should the talk about Ralph Brinkhaus now being in play be taken seriously?

Never say never (given that Söder is in a weaker position than many people believe), but it sounds pretty absurd. Brinkhaus has zero name recognition, is uncharismatic, and has less elite support than the two party leaders.

[Lord Halifax]

Should the talk about Ralph Brinkhaus now being in play be taken seriously?

Never say never (given that Söder is in a weaker position than many people believe), but it sounds pretty absurd. Brinkhaus has zero name recognition, is uncharismatic, and has less elite support than the two party leaders.

In what way?

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

Should the talk about Ralph Brinkhaus now being in play be taken seriously?

Never say never (given that Söder is in a weaker position than many people believe), but it sounds pretty absurd. Brinkhaus has zero name recognition, is uncharismatic, and has less elite support than the two party leaders.

In what way?

Because the telephonist despises Söder, and that's all what counts in his Twitter bubble...

But back to the topic! Only if Söder, for whatever reasons, rejects Merkel's offer, Ralph Brinkhaus, who very surprisingly won the parliamentary group leader election against established incumbent Volker Kauder two years ago, could become this election's Rainer Barzel, because I can't imagine whatsoever that the CDU/CSU could ever make Laschet the chancellor candidate.

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

More than fifty CDU and CSU Bundestag members press for a nomination of their chancellor candidate through a vote by the Bundestag faction. The last time the chancellor candidate was nominated through such a process was in 1979 when Bavarian Governor Franz Josef Strauß emerged the winner.

CDU/CSU caucus leader Ralph Brinkhaus opposes this proposal, but he urges for a prompt decision abut the nomination of the chancellor candidate.

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

Both Laschet and Söder have just announced their candidacy.

[Keep Calm and ...]

Rather:
Armin Laschet (CDU) and Markus Söder (CSU) have both declared their willingness to become the next CxU chancellor candidate.

[Lord Halifax]

Rather:
Armin Laschet (CDU) and Markus Söder (CSU) have both declared their willingness to become the next CxU chancellor candidate.

So how are they going to decide who gets it? Who'll make the decision?

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

Rather:
Armin Laschet (CDU) and Markus Söder (CSU) have both declared their willingness to become the next CxU chancellor candidate.

That's the same thing.

[Keep Calm and ...]

Rather:
Armin Laschet (CDU) and Markus Söder (CSU) have both declared their willingness to become the next CxU chancellor candidate.

That's the same thing.

Sorry, you are right if you mean:
Both Laschet and Söder have just announced their candidacy (for CxU chancellor candidate)

I misread it:
Both Laschet and Söder have just announced their candidacy (that both claim to be the CxU chancellor candidate)

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

Rather:
Armin Laschet (CDU) and Markus Söder (CSU) have both declared their willingness to become the next CxU chancellor candidate.

That's the same thing.

Sorry, you are right if you mean:
Both Laschet and Söder have just announced their candidacy (for CxU chancellor candidate)

I misread it:
Both Laschet and Söder have just announced their candidacy (that both claim to be the CxU chancellor candidate)

Fair enough.

But another question: Where has your post count suddenly gone down so rapidly?

[Keep Calm and ...]

Rather:
Armin Laschet (CDU) and Markus Söder (CSU) have both declared their willingness to become the next CxU chancellor candidate.

That's the same thing.

Sorry, you are right if you mean:
Both Laschet and Söder have just announced their candidacy (for CxU chancellor candidate)

I misread it:
Both Laschet and Söder have just announced their candidacy (that both claim to be the CxU chancellor candidate)

Fair enough.

But another question: Where has your post count suddenly gone down so rapidly?

I'am not "Ye Olde Europe"

[buritobr]

Was the final decision reach?
Will Markus Söder be the candidate? Is there a confirmation?

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

https://twitter.com/Paudlitschek/status/1381283626575392771

[Lord Halifax]

Merz has said nominating Söder is a bad idea, how much do you think that'll influence his supporters from the chairmanship election? Is he a has-been or still relevant?

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

Merz has said nominating Söder is a bad idea, how much do you think that'll influence his supporters from the chairmanship election? Is he a has-been or still relevant?

Merz is a has-been. He his going to lose his CD primary in two weeks badly. His endorsement has absolutely no influence. Keep in mind that most Union members of the Bundestag want to retain their seats, and the odds of getting reelected become essentially higher under a chancellor candidate Söder.

[Lord Halifax]

Merz has said nominating Söder is a bad idea, how much do you think that'll influence his supporters from the chairmanship election? Is he a has-been or still relevant?

Merz is a has-been. He his going to lose his CD primary in two weeks badly. His endorsement has absolutely no influence. Keep in mind that most Union members of the Bundestag want to retain their seats, and the odds of getting reelected become essentially higher under a chancellor candidate Söder.

But are the MPs going to decide it? There doesn't seem to be any established procedure for breaking the deadlock, just "we'll discuss it and (somehow...) agree".

[urutzizu]

According to ZDF Heute (evening news) Merkel gave Laschet "indirect backing" at the todays meeting of the board of the CDU/CSU parliamentary group with Laschet and Söder, but they don't elaborate further.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tRtgThKLy3U (timestamp: 2:10)

n-tv reports this, which is what I assume they mean:

"[Merkel emphasized that] North Rhine-Westphalia deviated only minimally from the federal-state agreements, if at all. Others went further.

"Bavaria has now deviated even more significantly," Merkel said, according to the participants. Markus Söder will defend this by saying that it is due to court judgments. Unfortunately, the public had the impression that NRW Prime Minister Armin Laschet had deviated more strongly. She herself criticized the states of Berlin and North Rhine-Westphalia in a talk show. Other states had adhered to the agreements less."

https://www.n-tv.de/politik/Merkel-zaehlt-Bayern-wegen-Notbremse-an-article22482836.html

The Backstory is that Bravaria quietly eased the Notbremse in a similar way that NRW did, but bizarrely it got practically no media attention, while Laschet got dragged left, right and center for it, including from Söder himself. Actually Bravaria's easing goes even further than NRW's because it allows a 48 Hour old test unlike NRW's 24 Hour rule. Söders defense for this is that he was forced to by a recent court judgement, but looking at the judgment in question that seems rather iffy if you ask me. Seems more like another example of "do as I say and not as I do" (more info)

[President Johnson]

The statement from today that both would be "available" is kinda ridiculous. They're pretty bad in messaging at this point.

Originally a joke by the Heute-show, I actually think the Union would be best off with nominating Parliamentary Leader Ralph Brinkhaus. He seems more competent than Söder and Laschet and his even not hesitated to criticize the government for Covid management. He also ousted his predecessor Volker Kauder few years ago against Merkel's explicit will.

[Lord Halifax]

Rather:
Armin Laschet (CDU) and Markus Söder (CSU) have both declared their willingness to become the next CxU chancellor candidate.

So how are they going to decide who gets it? Who'll make the decision?

BUMP

[Yeahsayyeah]

Rather:
Armin Laschet (CDU) and Markus Söder (CSU) have both declared their willingness to become the next CxU chancellor candidate.

So how are they going to decide who gets it? Who'll make the decision?

BUMP

Well, in 2002, CSU's Edmund Stoiber and CDU's Angela Merkel ate breakfest together in Wolfratshausen, and whatever happened there, Angela Merkel gave in and Stoiber became chancellor candidate of the Union parties. I don't know, what the procedure was in 1980, but it is said that the CDU campaigned quite reluctantly for Franz Joseph Strauss, and their result north of the white sausage equator was quite bad.

aka There is no formal procedure to solve this.