Skill and Chance
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« on: November 08, 2017, 09:28:55 PM » |
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« edited: November 08, 2017, 09:31:30 PM by Skill and Chance »
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Chesterfield has always been a couple % more R in state level races relative to the statewide margin than in federal ones. VA Beach has actually tended to be a couple % more D in state level races than in federal ones. Kaine won VA Beach in 2005, but then Obama lost it in 2008. McAuliffe 2013 did better in VA Beach than Clinton 2016! I would be quite confident that Chesterfield flips first for a presidential candidate and by a larger margin if both flip.
Right now, I think Trump gets reelected after moving to the center with a Dem House, so I would clearly choose yes. I would only flip it if Northam is actually on the Dem ticket.
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