Yes. He won it bigly in 2016.
I guess 4 points is bigly lol
That makes roughly it R+5. Trump would have to lose the national popular vote by something 5 or more points to lose it, and I think we're too polarized for that in 2020.
Even assuming an even swing, a 5 point popular vote loss for Trump is definitely not unthinkable even if the US are polarized. It would be only slightly larger than Obama in 2012 or slightly smaller than the House vote in 2014 (albeit the other way around).
I think that even though the US are polarized, anything between D+9 and R+9 in the popular vote is almost certainly possible.
Poll
