My Final 2021 Gubernatorial Predictions

[Progressive Pessimist]

New Jersey - D +7.1%



Governor Phillip D. Murphy (D) / Lt. Governor Sheila Oliver - 1,214,900 votes, 50.59%
Assemblyman Jack M. Ciattarelli (R) / Diane Allen - 960,100 votes, 43.49%

You really think that 7% of New Jersey voters will vote for a third party? They get 1% at most here.

Also Gloucester voting Democratic while Somerset doesn't? I'm telling you all for the last time, Ciatarelli will not get a home county boost. Murphy might not win Somerset by over 20% like Biden did, but this county is long gone for Republicans at the state level. It might even be the epitome of the suburbs trending to the Democrats.

[Progressive Pessimist]

New Jersey - D +7.1%



Governor Phillip D. Murphy (D) / Lt. Governor Sheila Oliver - 1,214,900 votes, 50.59%
Assemblyman Jack M. Ciattarelli (R) / Diane Allen - 960,100 votes, 43.49%

You really think that 7% of New Jersey voters will vote for a third party? They get 1% at most here.

Also Gloucester voting Democratic while Somerset doesn't? I'm telling you all for the last time, Ciatarelli will not get a home county boost. Murphy might not win Somerset by over 20% like Biden did, but this county is long gone for Republicans at the state level. It might even be the epitome of the suburbs trending to the Democrats.

Somerset is not long gone for the GOP at the state level. Murphy only won it by 2 pts in 2017 while he won by 14 statewide. Ciatarelli probably won't win it but NJ county trends are lagging significantly behind their federal trends.

I'm well aware of the nationwide trend lag, but that would still mean, after four years since Murphy's last election, that Somerset has still lurched leftward more. And I still say that it's gone for the GOP. Let's be real here, the profoundly unpopular Bob Menendez won it by six points in 2018. I expect Murphy, who is popular, to do better than that, or meet that margin at the bare minimum.

[Progressive Pessimist]

New Jersey - D +7.1%



Governor Phillip D. Murphy (D) / Lt. Governor Sheila Oliver - 1,214,900 votes, 50.59%
Assemblyman Jack M. Ciattarelli (R) / Diane Allen - 960,100 votes, 43.49%

You really think that 7% of New Jersey voters will vote for a third party? They get 1% at most here.

Also Gloucester voting Democratic while Somerset doesn't? I'm telling you all for the last time, Ciatarelli will not get a home county boost. Murphy might not win Somerset by over 20% like Biden did, but this county is long gone for Republicans at the state level. It might even be the epitome of the suburbs trending to the Democrats.

Somerset is not long gone for the GOP at the state level. Murphy only won it by 2 pts in 2017 while he won by 14 statewide. Ciatarelli probably won't win it but NJ county trends are lagging significantly behind their federal trends.

I'm well aware of the nationwide trend lag, but that would still mean, after four years since Murphy's last election, that Somerset has still lurched leftward more. And I still say that it's gone for the GOP. Let's be real here, the profoundly unpopular Bob Menendez won it by six points in 2018. I expect Murphy, who is popular, to do better than that, or meet that margin at the bare minimum.

Doing some simple math, Somerset trended about 6 points left from 2016 to 2020 given presidential results. If Somerset did the same, going from 12 points to the right in 2017 GOV to 6 points to the right in 2021 GOV, Murphy would hit that 6% win with a 12 point statewide win. Perhaps Ciatarelli will get some sort of home county boost, which has traditionally been quite powerful in previous NJ gubernatorial elections, but it shouldn't really sway it. Maybe it gets pushed to R+8 from the statewide from that.

I myself would say that Murphy is more likely than not to win the county. I'm just saying it's overconfident to say it's gone for the GOP. Any reasonably close result in the statewide race would lead to a Ciatarelli victory. If you think there's no way Murphy wins by less than 7 pts then yeah, Somerset won't be won by Ciatarelli, but if you foresee the possibility of the statewide race becoming tight then saying it's gone is cognitively dissonant. It's an NJ gubernatorial election, writing off a strong Republican result is forgetting the past.

Of course another circa 2013 Christie-like candidate could win overwhelmingly, with Somerset in tow, but I don't know when we will ever see that again in our state.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Oh, I still never posted my updated predictions:

-New Jersey: Murphy+12, 56-44.
-Virginia: McAuliffe+6, 52-46.

[Progressive Pessimist]

NJ

Murphy +13
Murphy: 55
Ciatarelli: 42



I think Murphy loses significant ground in South Jersey compared to 2017, I still think he wins Cumberland, Gloucester, and Atlantic, but they look more like Biden's narrower wins in 2020 compared to Murphy's 2017 double digit wins.

Conversely, I expect suburban North Jersey to swing to the left compared to 2017. I think Murphy will win Somerset by anywhere from 5 to 10 points and turn a 2017 8 point loss in Morris to a 4-5 point loss.

I am in complete agreement.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Are most of these posts satire?  Like did you all get together on another platform and coordinate an extreme Youngkin trolling operation?  Youngkin isn't winning and he's not getting within 2 points either.  Worst case scenario T-Mac wins by 5.  But hot take - he wins by the usual Dem margin in VA.

Over the last two cycles—2013 and 2017—Virginia gubernatorial was about +6 above the Democrats’s national support. The 2013 Virginia gubernatorial election was a Democratic pickup by +2.52 while the Democrats’s 2014 margin, for U.S. Governors, was –4.09. (In Year #06 of the presidency of Democratic incumbent Barack Obama, the Republicans flipped the U.S. Senate.) The 2017 Virginia gubernatorial election was a Democratic hold by +8.93 while the Democrats’s 2018 margin, for U.S. Governors, was +3.07. (In Year #02 of the presidency of Republican incumbent Donald Trump, the Democrats flipped the U.S. House.)

If 2022 turns out to be a Republican wave of a midterm election cycle, on the watch of Democratic incumbent U.S. president Joe Biden, November 2021 gubernatorial elections in New Jersey and Virginia—the nation’s Nos. 11 and 12 most-populous states—are likely to see Democrats underperform their 2017 margins. (2017 New Jersey was a Democratic pickup by +14.14.) That sets things up, very favorably for the White House opposition Republican Party, for the midterm elections of 2022.

And that's exactly why, even though both McAuliffe and Murphy are pretty sure to win, impressive victories are needed. They still may not say everything about 2022, but they'd certainly give Democrats hope going into what should be a rough year for the party but also a year that may very well decide the fate of our struggling republic. The stakes are too high for historical precedent to succeed and allow Republicans a significant victory in most elections.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Are most of these posts satire?  Like did you all get together on another platform and coordinate an extreme Youngkin trolling operation?  Youngkin isn't winning and he's not getting within 2 points either.  Worst case scenario T-Mac wins by 5.  But hot take - he wins by the usual Dem margin in VA.

Over the last two cycles—2013 and 2017—Virginia gubernatorial was about +6 above the Democrats’s national support. The 2013 Virginia gubernatorial election was a Democratic pickup by +2.52 while the Democrats’s 2014 margin, for U.S. Governors, was –4.09. (In Year #06 of the presidency of Democratic incumbent Barack Obama, the Republicans flipped the U.S. Senate.) The 2017 Virginia gubernatorial election was a Democratic hold by +8.93 while the Democrats’s 2018 margin, for U.S. Governors, was +3.07. (In Year #02 of the presidency of Republican incumbent Donald Trump, the Democrats flipped the U.S. House.)

If 2022 turns out to be a Republican wave of a midterm election cycle, on the watch of Democratic incumbent U.S. president Joe Biden, November 2021 gubernatorial elections in New Jersey and Virginia—the nation’s Nos. 11 and 12 most-populous states—are likely to see Democrats underperform their 2017 margins. (2017 New Jersey was a Democratic pickup by +14.14.) That sets things up, very favorably for the White House opposition Republican Party, for the midterm elections of 2022.

And that's exactly why, even though both McAuliffe and Murphy are pretty sure to win, impressive victories are needed. They still may not say everything about 2022, but they'd certainly give Democrats hope going into what should be a rough year for the party but also a year that may very well decide the fate of our struggling republic. The stakes are too high for historical precedent to succeed and allow Republicans a significant victory in most elections.

Hahaha! Impressive victories. Me from days ago was such an idiot.

New predictions (my New Jersey one is still the same):

Virginia: Youngkin+2 (50-48).

I hate this country...