Canadian by-elections, 2014

[RogueBeaver]

Blizzard: vote Cressy because he's the best candidate and Vaughan's an asshole.

QP's panel all thought TrinSpa will be a major test for both leaders, DOOM for whichever party loses. Interestingly, Ivison said Grits told him they thought they'd have had a shot in FM had it not been a long weekend.

[DC Al Fine]

Ivison said Grits told him they thought they'd have had a shot in FM had it not been a long weekend.

What's their reasoning: older Tory voters are more likely to show up despite the holiday weekend?

[Hatman 🍁]

Ivison said Grits told him they thought they'd have had a shot in FM had it not been a long weekend.

What's their reasoning: older Tory voters are more likely to show up despite the holiday weekend?

How about half the riding is back in Newfoundland for the weekend?

[Hatman 🍁]

The Sun's "endorsement" of Cressy is probably terrible news. Urban progressives loathe the Sun, so their endorsement can only hurt Cressy's chances.

On paper, losing Trinity-Spadina would be terrible news for the NDP, but since it's expected at this point, it wouldn't be the end of the world. Too bad Mike Layton didn't run. A Layton vs. Vaughan match would've been epic.

[King of Kensington]

The Sun's "endorsement" of Cressy is probably terrible news. Urban progressives loathe the Sun, so their endorsement can only hurt Cressy's chances.

On paper, losing Trinity-Spadina would be terrible news for the NDP, but since it's expected at this point, it wouldn't be the end of the world. Too bad Mike Layton didn't run. A Layton vs. Vaughan match would've been epic.

At best it has no impact because practically nobody reads the Sun in Trinity-Spadina anyway.  But I see NDPers are gloating about it on social media.  I wouldn't.

[adma]

Any doom on the NDP's part is mitigated by Adam Vaughan being a ten-ton elephant of a Liberal candidate to be running against.  They'll be looking more at reducing the provincial margin to whatever palpable degree...

[King of Kensington]

Any doom on the NDP's part is mitigated by Adam Vaughan being a ten-ton elephant of a Liberal candidate to be running against.  They'll be looking more at reducing the provincial margin to whatever palpable degree...

Yup.  If Cressy pulls off say, 40% of the vote, that will be considered a great victory.

[RogueBeaver]

Forum out. My reaction: invoke Wells' First Rule.

TS: 45% (-7), 35% (+1), 11% (-1), 9% (+7)

SA: 48% (-4%), 37% (+1), 10% (+2),

M: 54% (-7), 16% (+5), 4 (-7%), 16% (+7)

FMA: 41%, 33%, 13%.

[Hatman 🍁]

I see the strategic voting campaign in Macleod hasn't figured out who to back. Not surprising, given all three opposition parties have finished 2nd in recent elections...

Fort McMurray is interesting... I'm not buying it though. Forum has had trouble polling it, so I can't see it being very reliable.

[RogueBeaver]

^ Nor am I buying Fort Mac.

[King of Kensington]

NDP has "momentum" in Agincourt.

[Hatman 🍁]

NDP has "momentum" in Agincourt.

...

[Citizen Hats]

NDP has "momentum" in Agincourt.

That's nice dear

[King of Kensington]

Momentum meaning, might get their deposit back!

[DL]

The Sun's "endorsement" of Cressy is probably terrible news. Urban progressives loathe the Sun, so their endorsement can only hurt Cressy's chances.

First of all "the Sun" didn't endorse Cressy - one of their columnists did. Actually that makes two columnists at the Sun who have endorsed Cressy - Christina Blizzard and Warren Kinsella. The Blizzard endorsement came out today - meaning that no "urban progressive" will even be aware of it since they don't read the Sun in the first place and the byelection is tomorrow. There are more people than you think in Trinity-Spadina who do read the Sun...and while Blizzard is a rightwing Tory and Kinsella is a Liberal - they both know that Joe Cressy is a great guy and Adam Vaughan is - put a charitably - a prick!

[King of Kensington]

Citizen Hats, will you be doing any more maps for T-S?

[Citizen Hats]

Citizen Hats, will you be doing any more maps for T-S?

I can, but I've been busy with municipal work

anything in particular you want?

[Citizen Hats]

Kinsella is a Liberal

ya...no he's not

[King of Kensington]

Citizen Hats, will you be doing any more maps for T-S?

I can, but I've been busy with municipal work

anything in particular you want?

I'd like the 3 largest non-Christian religious minority groups since they do have their concentrations.  Mainline Protestants are kind of "boring" in terms of geographic concentration, at least in T-S.

[DL]

Kinsella is a Liberal

ya...no he's not

Says who? Isn't being a senior advisor to Jean Chretien, Michael Ignatieff and dalton McGuinty enough to make someone a Liberal?

[King of Kensington]

Kinsella is a Liberal

ya...no he's not

Kinsella seems to have burned his bridges in the Liberal Party and has oddly morphed into a kind of quasi-NDP hack.  

[DL]

Kinsella is a Liberal

ya...no he's not

Kinsella seems to have burned his bridges in the Liberal Party and has oddly morphed into a kind of quasi-NDP hack.  

I guess he got involved with Olivia Chow and then "went Native"

[Citizen Hats]

King of Kensington has got it spot-on. The man isn't a party member.  He doesn't work for any Liberals.  He trashes various Liberal Parties in the press.  He works as a paid concern troll for a company owned by seperatists and managed by Brian Mulroney.  He endorses NDP candidates against Liberals in partisan races.  You may as well say that Bob Rae is an NDPer, except that Bob Rae has the grace to not pretend that he's a dipper when it might rhetorically suit him.

He went that way before Chow, as he's been critical of everything that isn't absolutely bog-standard that comes out of the leader's office since Trudeau took over.

[King of Kensington]

Ironically, Kinsella is the most partisan New Democrat on Team Chow at this point.  Olivia herself certainly isn't sounding very partisan these days. 

Kinsella also kept insisting that the Liberals were "doomed" under Kathleen Wynne and should have picked Sandra Pupatello.

[DL]

Kinsella was a major figure in Sandra Puputello's leadership campaign - had she won he would be a big figure in her administration. He is probably a typical Liberal who's disillusioned by how his party is attracting revolting people like Adam Vaughan to the party standard.