Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[Middle-aged Europe]

https://mobile.twitter.com/TheStudyofWar/status/1520535153604366336
The battle of Donbas continues to be a fruitless endeavor for Russia as at this point it’s just waiting for Ukraine to deliver the counter attack knockout punch

Looking forward to read some really bad "Ukraine MUST surrender now, before Putin is in a position where he is forced to use the a-bomb" tankie takes on the Internet in the coming days.

[CumbrianLefty]

I cannot see how Ukraine can resist this invasion.

But I didn't think Bosnians had a chance against the Serbs (Chetniks) in the 1990's either.

Putin does risk a lot here, so he will want this over short and sharp.

This has never been about repelling the initial invasion. Russia will overrun Ukraine if it really wants to.

The question is what happens after that.

So...anyone want to dunk on me for this? Worst take of mine in years. Never been happier to be wrong.

I think we all underestimated the impact that Western weapons deliveries are having on the war.
Go back to the battle for Hostomel airport. Had Russia won there, things would likely be much bleaker for Ukraine right now.

They reportedly almost captured Zelensky and his entourage on the opening day of the war too.

Those first few hours really were crucial - the real indictment of Russia is that once the "blitzkrieg" didn't come off, they had no effective Plan B.

[Middle-aged Europe]

I cannot see how Ukraine can resist this invasion.

But I didn't think Bosnians had a chance against the Serbs (Chetniks) in the 1990's either.

Putin does risk a lot here, so he will want this over short and sharp.

This has never been about repelling the initial invasion. Russia will overrun Ukraine if it really wants to.

The question is what happens after that.

So...anyone want to dunk on me for this? Worst take of mine in years. Never been happier to be wrong.

I think we all underestimated the impact that Western weapons deliveries are having on the war.
Go back to the battle for Hostomel airport. Had Russia won there, things would likely be much bleaker for Ukraine right now.

They reportedly almost captured Zelensky and his entourage on the opening day of the war too.

Those first few hours really were crucial - the real indictment of Russia is that once the "blitzkrieg" didn't come off, they had no effective Plan B.

Never use a plan where you rely on everything going right though.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I cannot see how Ukraine can resist this invasion.

But I didn't think Bosnians had a chance against the Serbs (Chetniks) in the 1990's either.

Putin does risk a lot here, so he will want this over short and sharp.

This has never been about repelling the initial invasion. Russia will overrun Ukraine if it really wants to.

The question is what happens after that.

So...anyone want to dunk on me for this? Worst take of mine in years. Never been happier to be wrong.

I think we all underestimated the impact that Western weapons deliveries are having on the war.
Go back to the battle for Hostomel airport. Had Russia won there, things would likely be much bleaker for Ukraine right now.

They reportedly almost captured Zelensky and his entourage on the opening day of the war too.

Those first few hours really were crucial - the real indictment of Russia is that once the "blitzkrieg" didn't come off, they had no effective Plan B.

The biggest benefit that the Ukrainians gained from their victory at Hostomel, I suspect, was morale, followed closely by the fact it protected Kiev (never a good situation in a war when you have to defend your own capital from intensive enemy attack).
Hostomel was very early evidence that the Russians could be defeated, which helped immensely.
Now, the longer the war drags on, the worse it is looking for Russia. Turkish drones and American rockets and etc. are showing no signs of stopping, and Russia will likely find it harder to replace its losses than Ukraine will.
Ukraine's basically got a brand new military courtesy of Erdogan, Biden, and EU. This is a massive setback for Russian geopolitical interests.

Any resurgent Russia in the coming decades will have to tend with this, first and foremost. It is distinctly possible, at the end of this war (when it comes) for all the conditions to be there for there to be an armed Ukraine, capable and firmly entrenched in the NATO bloc and set to be hosting NATO troops. It will be a dagger pointed right at the heartland of any Russian state opposed to the West, at a time when Russia's geographic armor has shrunk to the smallest it has been since the reign of Peter the Great, and rendered less and less valuable due to technological changes.

Russia is absolutely correct to be worried about the prospect of NATO membership for Ukraine. If the choice was NATO Ukraine or doing this war, this war would be better. Unfortunately for them, their gambit seems to be souring.

This is something to consider here. If Russia goes full-on mobilization, it will be because Putin and his brain trust see this undesirable outcome and see averting it as their best option.

At this point I'm not sure if we can even rule out Russia losing Crimea, if things go badly enough.  Russia might lose its naval base.

We need to consider the worst-case scenarios at this point. All major indicators point towards a  Ukrainian victory, unless Russia manages to salvage this war.

[Buffalo Mayor Young Kim]

I cannot see how Ukraine can resist this invasion.

But I didn't think Bosnians had a chance against the Serbs (Chetniks) in the 1990's either.

Putin does risk a lot here, so he will want this over short and sharp.

This has never been about repelling the initial invasion. Russia will overrun Ukraine if it really wants to.

The question is what happens after that.

So...anyone want to dunk on me for this? Worst take of mine in years. Never been happier to be wrong.

I think we all underestimated the impact that Western weapons deliveries are having on the war.
Go back to the battle for Hostomel airport. Had Russia won there, things would likely be much bleaker for Ukraine right now.

They reportedly almost captured Zelensky and his entourage on the opening day of the war too.

Those first few hours really were crucial - the real indictment of Russia is that once the "blitzkrieg" didn't come off, they had no effective Plan B.

The biggest benefit that the Ukrainians gained from their victory at Hostomel, I suspect, was morale, followed closely by the fact it protected Kiev (never a good situation in a war when you have to defend your own capital from intensive enemy attack).
Hostomel was very early evidence that the Russians could be defeated, which helped immensely.
Now, the longer the war drags on, the worse it is looking for Russia. Turkish drones and American rockets and etc. are showing no signs of stopping, and Russia will likely find it harder to replace its losses than Ukraine will.
Ukraine's basically got a brand new military courtesy of Erdogan, Biden, and EU. This is a massive setback for Russian geopolitical interests.

Any resurgent Russia in the coming decades will have to tend with this, first and foremost. It is distinctly possible, at the end of this war (when it comes) for all the conditions to be there for there to be an armed Ukraine, capable and firmly entrenched in the NATO bloc and set to be hosting NATO troops. It will be a dagger pointed right at the heartland of any Russian state opposed to the West, at a time when Russia's geographic armor has shrunk to the smallest it has been since the reign of Peter the Great, and rendered less and less valuable due to technological changes.

Russia is absolutely correct to be worried about the prospect of NATO membership for Ukraine. If the choice was NATO Ukraine or doing this war, this war would be better. Unfortunately for them, their gambit seems to be souring.

This is something to consider here. If Russia goes full-on mobilization, it will be because Putin and his brain trust see this undesirable outcome and see averting it as their best option.

At this point I'm not sure if we can even rule out Russia losing Crimea, if things go badly enough.  Russia might lose its naval base.

We need to consider the worst-case scenarios at this point. All major indicators point towards a  Ukrainian victory, unless Russia manages to salvage this war.

Are you sure about that?
If the rest of Eastern Europe is any guide, all NATO membership means is having a red line their military can’t cross and eventually losing some weapons contracts.
For all the hubbub about creeping NATO expansion, it only effects Russia if Russia intended to invade thr place and/or use the threat of the same to bully the local government.
And from our perspective, if Russia is intending to invade a place, creating a bright red line that effectively bars them from doing so on pain of Armageddon is the best possible deterrence.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

I cannot see how Ukraine can resist this invasion.

But I didn't think Bosnians had a chance against the Serbs (Chetniks) in the 1990's either.

Putin does risk a lot here, so he will want this over short and sharp.

This has never been about repelling the initial invasion. Russia will overrun Ukraine if it really wants to.

The question is what happens after that.

So...anyone want to dunk on me for this? Worst take of mine in years. Never been happier to be wrong.

I think we all underestimated the impact that Western weapons deliveries are having on the war.
Go back to the battle for Hostomel airport. Had Russia won there, things would likely be much bleaker for Ukraine right now.

That was fought mostly without Western weapons, apart from a few anti-tank weapons - and even those only compete with locally produced/Russian-sourced anti-tank weapons. Ukraine mostly held Russia off with equipment that was either outdated Soviet tech or Ukrainian upgrades of this that were better than what Russia had managed to produce in the 30 years since the fall of the USSR.

[Middle-aged Europe]

2014 was apparently like a wake-up call for Ukraine and they spent the next eight years getting ready for a battle that maybe some there even saw as inevitable. Unfortunately, the same inevitability wasn't seen in Western countries, at least outside of Eastern Europe that is.

[Middle-aged Europe]

German opposition leader Friedrich Merz plans to visit Kyiv. This puts pressure on Scholz to follow suit and is likely intended to embarrass the Chancellor politically. Previously, only a delegation consisting of the chairs of the Bundestag committees on foreign affairs, european affairs, and defence - Michael Roth (SPD), Anton Hofreiter (Greens), and Marie-Agnes Strack-Zimmermann (FDP) - had visited Ukraine almost three weeks ago.


https://mobile.twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1520454399612571648

[Antonio the Sixth]

German opposition leader Friedrich Merz plans to visit Kyiv. This puts pressure on Scholz to follow suit and is likely intended to embarrass the Chancellor politically. Previously, only a delegation consisting of the chairs of the Bundestag committees on foreign affairs, european affairs, and defence - Michael Roth (SPD), Anton Hofreiter (Greens), and Marie-Agnes Strack-Zimmermann (FDP) - had visited Ukraine almost three weeks ago.


https://mobile.twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1520454399612571648

God help me, I really want the Greens and FDP to dump Scholz and do a Jamaica coalition instead.

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://mobile.twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1520686567001673728
Russia is losing like 10 tanks a day. My god how many tanks did we lose in either Iraq or Afghanistan?

[Earthling]

https://mobile.twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1520686567001673728
Russia is losing like 10 tanks a day. My god how many tanks did we lose in either Iraq or Afghanistan?

Is it even true? Let's face it, this information comes from the Ukrainians. Not the most reliable of sources.

[Logical]

Gerasimov spent less than 3 days on the front before yeeting out of there.
https://twitter.com/CITeam_en/status/1520744417715527680
https://twitter.com/CITeam_en/status/1520744421356195842

[Logical]

https://mobile.twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1520686567001673728
Russia is losing like 10 tanks a day. My god how many tanks did we lose in either Iraq or Afghanistan?

Is it even true? Let's face it, this information comes from the Ukrainians. Not the most reliable of sources.

Manpower loss is probably within range of possibilities but the number of equipment losses are way way overestimated. For a good baseline of equipment losses go to Oryx's blog.

[pppolitics]

We should do a point system.

Every Russian equipment captured or destroyed is worth a certain number of points.

The Ukrainians can collect points and use them to redeem military equipment from our US military catalog.

[The Dowager Mod]

Too bad they just missed.
https://twitter.com/OSINT88/status/1520767099664277504

[Filuwaúrdjan]

God help me, I really want the Greens and FDP to dump Scholz and do a Jamaica coalition instead.

No you don't. Scholz's verbal oddities aside, there have been several huge policy shifts over the past few months and there's genuinely no reason (none) to think it would have been easier if the lead party in the coalition were the CDU rather than the SPD. They've been doing their best to launder their record in the international press,* but we should not forget that the CDU were in power from 2005 until last year and were the absolutely dominant party in all coalitions from 2009 onwards. 'Everything we now regret was the fault of our junior partner, including during those years when they weren't our junior partner' is not a very credible line and neither is 'our foreign-policy obsessed Chancellor had no influence over the foreign policy of her government'. This is before we even touch on the state of the Bundeswehr and (especially) its arsenal and the reasons for that.

All of which reminds me of an obvious joke. Never ask: a woman her age, a man his salary, and the CDU exactly who they nominated as their candidate for Chancellor at the last election.

_{*With a regrettable degree of success. Unfortunately far too many foreign journalists based in Germany end up with closer personal ties to CDU figures than politicians from other parties; this has been the case for years and has often warped coverage pretty badly. They must throw more debauched parties.}

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://mobile.twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1520686567001673728
Russia is losing like 10 tanks a day. My god how many tanks did we lose in either Iraq or Afghanistan?

Is it even true? Let's face it, this information comes from the Ukrainians. Not the most reliable of sources.

Manpower loss is probably within range of possibilities but the number of equipment losses are way way overestimated. For a good baseline of equipment losses go to Oryx's blog.

First off, Ukraine has done a very good job being accurate with Russian losses in accordance with Western Intelligence own assessments of the situation so I think it’s very unfair to be acting like Ukraine is unreliable on this regard. Second, Oryx is awesome but he can be a little too conservative with some of his estimates. For example, he put Russia tank losses at around 600 but we have visual confirmation of 600 Russian tanks lost and I have a hard time believing that every single Russian tank loss has been successfully visual documented. So tank losses of 1k+ for Russia doesn’t seem that unreasonable

[DINGO Joe]

Gerasimov spent less than 3 days on the front before yeeting out of there.
https://twitter.com/CITeam_en/status/1520744417715527680
https://twitter.com/CITeam_en/status/1520744421356195842

And today a military warehouse in Belgorod that was storing.....smoke? seems to have had a containment issue.

https://twitter.com/JimmySecUK/status/1520731476307943424

[Hindsight was 2020]

Western European politics (particularly Germany) is at such a weird crossroad right now as across nations there is a youth and grassroots ground swell of support for these nations to GET INVOLVED in a conflict not stay out of it and for economic policies that would tie these nations more to the US and the powers that be don’t exactly seem to be sure how to react to it

[DINGO Joe]

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russia-reports-fire-military-facility-near-ukraine-border-2022-05-01/

Besides the explosion in Belgorod, the Governor of Kursk says a railway bridge used by freight trains was damaged by sabotage.

[Middle-aged Europe]

God help me, I really want the Greens and FDP to dump Scholz and do a Jamaica coalition instead.

No you don't. Scholz's verbal oddities aside, there have been several huge policy shifts over the past few months and there's genuinely no reason (none) to think it would have been easier if the lead party in the coalition were the CDU rather than the SPD. They've been doing their best to launder their record in the international press,* but we should not forget that the CDU were in power from 2005 until last year and were the absolutely dominant party in all coalitions from 2009 onwards. 'Everything we now regret was the fault of our junior partner, including during those years when they weren't our junior partner' is not a very credible line and neither is 'our foreign-policy obsessed Chancellor had no influence over the foreign policy of her government'. This is before we even touch on the state of the Bundeswehr and (especially) its arsenal and the reasons for that.

All of which reminds me of an obvious joke. Never ask: a woman her age, a man his salary, and the CDU exactly who they nominated as their candidate for Chancellor at the last election.

_{*With a regrettable degree of success. Unfortunately far too many foreign journalists based in Germany end up with closer personal ties to CDU figures than politicians from other parties; this has been the case for years and has often warped coverage pretty badly. They must throw more debauched parties.}

Aside from that, Merz' trip to Kyiv is so obviously a political stunt. He didn't exactly care about providing military support to Ukraine or ending Nord Stream prior to February 24 either, and he now sees an opening to stick it to Scholz in a rather opportunistic way.

[Storr]

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russia-reports-fire-military-facility-near-ukraine-border-2022-05-01/

Besides the explosion in Belgorod, the Governor of Kursk says a railway bridge used by freight trains was damaged by sabotage.

Photos have surfaced of said bridge:

https://twitter.com/NotWoofers/status/1520785148228292608?s=20&t=4ZUpB88bqku...

[DINGO Joe]

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russia-reports-fire-military-facility-near-ukraine-border-2022-05-01/

Besides the explosion in Belgorod, the Governor of Kursk says a railway bridge used by freight trains was damaged by sabotage.

Photos have surfaced of said bridge:

https://twitter.com/NotWoofers/status/1520785148228292608?s=20&t=4ZUpB88bqku...

The tracks are still there, so I see no problem.  Russia should send a munitions train across it.

Is there a Stalag 13 in Kursk by chance?

[The Mikado]

https://mobile.twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1520686567001673728
Russia is losing like 10 tanks a day. My god how many tanks did we lose in either Iraq or Afghanistan?

Is it even true? Let's face it, this information comes from the Ukrainians. Not the most reliable of sources.

Manpower loss is probably within range of possibilities but the number of equipment losses are way way overestimated. For a good baseline of equipment losses go to Oryx's blog.

First off, Ukraine has done a very good job being accurate with Russian losses in accordance with Western Intelligence own assessments of the situation so I think it’s very unfair to be acting like Ukraine is unreliable on this regard. Second, Oryx is awesome but he can be a little too conservative with some of his estimates. For example, he put Russia tank losses at around 600 but we have visual confirmation of 600 Russian tanks lost and I have a hard time believing that every single Russian tank loss has been successfully visual documented. So tank losses of 1k+ for Russia doesn’t seem that unreasonable

Oryx's numbers are a solid lowball, an "AT LEAST" X amount. And they do establish that the Ukrainian numbers are out to lunch in some respects, especially fixed wing aircraft. Oryx has 26 confirmed downed Russian planes. Say he's off by 50% (39) or even 100% (52), though it's a bit hard to miss a plane getting shot down so I doubt it's that many.

The Ukrainians claim to have downed 190(!) Russian aircraft.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Ukrainian propaganda usually tends to be more accurate than Russian propaganda, then again their military is usually also more successful than the Russian one.