VA-GOV 2017: It's a Wave (GE: Nov 7th - Thread #2)

[uti2]

If Ed loses, he needs to blame Corey Stewart, not Donald Trump.

The model for Republicans winning VA was laid out by McDonnell. Run as a boring, economic-centric candidate, and hope that D's forget to turn out.

Stewart may have screwed him by going ape**** on culture issues during the primary.

If this margin of victory is so large to the point that Northam winning never should have been questioned, Stewart should have won the primary so as to lose and to discourage that kind of campaigning.

Sad thing is, they are going to blame Ed for not being Trumpian enough.

How do you suppose Dems would forget to vote in a year with a GOP president?

[uti2]

Gillespie should have just run a Bush type Republican general election campaign. VA is a Bush type GOP state not a Trump like  

Bush won the state by consolidating Stewart voters - Stewart would have still caused problems for him.

[uti2]

This is the first election night I feel good about since 2012.

This is that election all over again, but going even better. All the concern trolling leftists and overconfident Republicans have their foot in their mouth right now.

This is why it should be remembered that Trump did not run as a republican. He ran as a third-party style candidate, while Clinton purposely went out of her way to tank the Dem downballot due to her GOP courtship strategy.

[uti2]

The Next Republican running in a swing state or leaning dem state should just tie himself to Bush 24/7 and their policies are similar to Bush not Trump. Bush is popular now

You mean Jeff Flake?

[uti2]

The Next Republican running in a swing state or leaning dem state should just tie himself to Bush 24/7 and their policies are similar to Bush not Trump. Bush is popular now

...No.

Ha. Yes, do that. It would be glorious.

Why not, Bush is popular now

His policies aren't and they never really were. He did not have strong bipartisan congressional support compared to say Reagan or Nixon (pre-watergate).

[uti2]

This is freaking amazing lol.

This is what we get for embracing that Orange moron.

Who is trying to implement an unpopular Paul Ryan agenda?

[uti2]

The Next Republican running in a swing state or leaning dem state should just tie himself to Bush 24/7 and their policies are similar to Bush not Trump. Bush is popular now

...No.

Ha. Yes, do that. It would be glorious.

Why not, Bush is popular now

His policies aren't and they never really were. He did not have strong bipartisan congressional support compared to say Reagan or Nixon (pre-watergate).

Bush in his first term got everything on his agenda passed.


It started to come apart in the 2nd term when Bush tried to get Social Security reform passed

I mean, he basically ran as John Kasich 1.0 in 2000. He did not fully embrace neoconservatism until ~2004/2nd term.

[uti2]

I know a handful of Obama 2012 Trump 2016 voters personally. Of course, it's just a handful of people in Ohio. I actually get the impression he's really well liked up here compared to places like Colorado or Virginia.

Trump seems to do well in the blue collar states (Ohio, Pennsylvania, Michigan) whereas I think more upscale whites in Virginia and Colorado will be a problem for him. Florida I have no clue.

As I've been saying for a couple of years now, Virginia is basically gone for the GOP. Atleast in the short-term.

I noticed the difference between upscale white, more socially conscious voters in places like Virginia and Colorado and downscale white, less politically correct voters in places like Ohio, Wisconsin, Michigan. Pennsylvania has a little of both.

I've found this demographic very, very fascinating since I've been harping on it for years and it ended up being the decisive forgotten votes that propelled Trump to the White House.

I think two things have big factors with these voters:

1. Money
- For anyone of my friends or family, even those of us who make good money for white working class Americans, in order to move to a state like Colorado or Virginia, especially a nice place, we would need a significant amount of money. This tells me that many of these white voters in Virginia and Colorado are actually quite well off, perhaps more college degrees. This could also allow them to embrace more of a social justice agenda than people like myself and many in the Midwest since our focus is still on economics.

2. Class
- To be honest, the things that "shocked" all those yoga-training career oriented 28 year old college educated women in a place like Prince William County didn't really have an impact in a place like Lake County, OH or Macomb County, MI. I think political correctness is a much, much bigger issue once you don't have finances to worry about and if you have much more college education.

None the less, I find these white voter differences very interesting as they will be useful in predicting elections in the future.

Virginia is not gone for Republicans statewide, moreso presidential. They have a base in VB, rural Virginia, and huge numbers in SW. The trick is to moderate and when I say moderate, I mean actual moderation, pre-1980s style GOP. The GOP has turned up the Trumpism heat in VA and it only helps them with their base in rural and let's face it, dying off literally and figuratively, parts of the state.

You are correct in terms of the point about VA having a white professional class, esp. in NoVA and Richmond. It makes these areas either Dem control or potential for moderate and liberal Republican swing districts but the GOP won't do that for the sake of RINO! in the primaries. It will haunt them for a couple more decades, at least. However, the idea that Virginia is now free to have Dems run full-tilt on SJW issues in VA is absolutely wrong. Economic issues, education, infrastructure, and good governance, are still the major issues here.

This.

Bob McDonnell is the model that GOP should look at if they want to win statewide in VA.

Mcdonnell wasn't a moderate, he's talking about the VA GOP running Rs like Hogan.