New York 2006

[Smash255]

question to fellow NYers (or really anyone):

If Spitzer had run in 2002, would he have beaten Pataki?

It would have been very close, Pataki would have probably edged him out though.  In response to budget woes in early 2003, their were some deep cuts in education propsed by Pataki, deep cuts in college tuition assistance programs & state tuition increases.  These were issues that tended to be on the backburner for a few months during election time, but McCall really didn't force Pataki to take an issue on them during the campaign.  The eventual actions Pataki took really had a poor impact on his popularity.  A more agressive camapign which Spitzer would have had may have forced Pataki's hands a bit on these issues and forced him to deal with them pre election day.  That is something that could have changed the race dpending on how everything played out.

[Smash255]

spitzer needs to be beaten.

ive no doubt he is the spawn of satan.

Statements like this make me lose respect for you.

i am facetious most of the time.

no spitzer isnt the spawn of satan.  but he is a horrible media whore and a pompous windbag.

I believe the spawn of satan is sitting in your Governor's mansion, WalterMitty.

good point!

but luckily he cant get most of his idiotic agenda passed due to the makeup of our state legislature.

It's kind of suprising that Mitt is a horrible person because his father, George Romney (I think that's his dad) was by all accounts that I can find a great man.

Then he went and spoiled it all by saying something stupid like he's brainwashed...

If the NY state legislature falls into Democratic hands could they gerrymander more House seats for the Dems (like the GOP did in Texas)?

Not sure about the upstate districts, but one thing that could be done in NY-03 is to push a little further north in the portions it reaches into Southwest Suffolk county.  Heavily minority sections of North Amityville, northern portions of Copaigue & the northern half of Bay Shore were split last time.  The heavily minority sections of those areas went to Steve Israel's district Ny-02) which is ultra Safe Dem, and the mostly white, wealthy immediate south shore portions of those towns were moved into King's district (NY-03).  Also taken out of King's district in the last census & moved into Israel's district are portions of east central Nassau County (Syosset, jericho, Woodbury)  these tend to be wealthy areas, but have a large Jewish population & quite Democratic.  With that being said by the time of the next census districts ggo into effect in 2012, the district would have a decent chance of being in Dems hand anyway

NY-13 is a possibility.  One alternative could be to slice Staten Island into two seperate districts, and make each district have a larger slice of Brooklyn.  Another more possible scenario would be to change the sections of Brooklyn NY-13 holds, and make it a more Democratic & minority areas (Dyker Heighs, etc & some of the wealthier & whiter portions of Brooklyyn is what is currently included iN NY-13.

As far as Sue Kelly's district NY-19, I guess it could be jet setted further south to include some more minority heavy communities in southern Westchester, which would change the district

Can't speak that much for the upstate districts.

[Smash255]

9 house seats in NY currently held by Republicans in NY, 20 held by Democrats.

[Smash255]

I'd still be shocked if he breaks 40%. Probably around 37% or so.

So Bill Weld is less appealing to the New York electorate than George Bush?

If Bush was running this year he would be lucky to get 30% in NY.  I would also add while some may think Spitzer is a bit abrasive, I would say he is a helluva lot more appealing than Kerry was

[Smash255]

Not sure about the upstate districts, but one thing that could be done in NY-03 is to push a little further north in the portions it reaches into Southwest Suffolk county.  Heavily minority sections of North Amityville, northern portions of Copaigue & the northern half of Bay Shore were split last time.  The heavily minority sections of those areas went to Steve Israel's district Ny-02) which is ultra Safe Dem, and the mostly white, wealthy immediate south shore portions of those towns were moved into King's district (NY-03).  Also taken out of King's district in the last census & moved into Israel's district are portions of east central Nassau County (Syosset, jericho, Woodbury)  these tend to be wealthy areas, but have a large Jewish population & quite Democratic.  With that being said by the time of the next census districts ggo into effect in 2012, the district would have a decent chance of being in Dems hand anyway

NY-13 is a possibility.  One alternative could be to slice Staten Island into two seperate districts, and make each district have a larger slice of Brooklyn.  Another more possible scenario would be to change the sections of Brooklyn NY-13 holds, and make it a more Democratic & minority areas (Dyker Heighs, etc & some of the wealthier & whiter portions of Brooklyyn is what is currently included iN NY-13.

As far as Sue Kelly's district NY-19, I guess it could be jet setted further south to include some more minority heavy communities in southern Westchester, which would change the district

Can't speak that much for the upstate districts.

Peter King is to New York as:

Mark Kennedy is to Minnesota
Rick Santorum is to Pennsylvania

Meaning, he is an ultra conservative Bush-loving hack who is totally out of place with his electorate.

Why does King keep getting elected if Nassau and Suffolk are socially liberal?

Upstate New York is the opposite of Downstate, its 10 Districts, with 7 being GOP and the other 3 Dem, NY 27 near Buffalo switched to a Democrat in 2004    There are some good moderate Republican reps from Upstate.

In part due to him facing a bunch of poorly funded no names in the past who haven't been able to capitailze on King's weakness's with the district.  King has always been conservative, but he has really jogged to the right over the past five years, also King was once an Indpendent minded Republican ( he voted against Clinton's impeachment, though part of it may have come from the fact that it was an election year & he was in a district that Clinton was very popular in.  However, he has no switched into basically a Bush hard line GOP conservative wing nut, but he has not faced the opponentsto capitalize on it.  However, that might be changing with Nassau Legis Dave Mejias strongly considering a run (most likley will make a decision within the next couple weeks) & he has been urged to run by Israel (NY-02), and Ackerman (NY-05) as well as Suffolk County Chair Schaffer as well as Ill. Rep Emmanuel Rahm (who is chairing the Congressional Races for the house Dems)  Mejias runs, King gets a real strong challenge, something he hasn't had in the past.

[Smash255]

isnt peter king pro-labor union?

That's kind of a must to be elected in that district.

He really isn't all that pro labor Union at all.  The AFL-CIO rates him at 27%, compare that to he other 4 LI Congressman (all Democrats) who have ratings of 80% for Israel, 93% for McCarthy & 100% for Ackerman & Bishop..

Anyway to draw this back into the Govenor's topic a bit, even before Spitzer made his intentions about Govenor known, King was rumored to be someone who would run possibly run for Govenor when the talks of Pataki stepping down first started.  He would have absolutley no chance of winning (even without Spitzer running) as his views would just get him demolished state wide, especially considering that the reason he has his seat has little to do with his views, and much more to do with his lack of any real opponent in the past.

[Smash255]

Not sure about the upstate districts, but one thing that could be done in NY-03 is to push a little further north in the portions it reaches into Southwest Suffolk county.  Heavily minority sections of North Amityville, northern portions of Copaigue & the northern half of Bay Shore were split last time.  The heavily minority sections of those areas went to Steve Israel's district Ny-02) which is ultra Safe Dem, and the mostly white, wealthy immediate south shore portions of those towns were moved into King's district (NY-03).  Also taken out of King's district in the last census & moved into Israel's district are portions of east central Nassau County (Syosset, jericho, Woodbury)  these tend to be wealthy areas, but have a large Jewish population & quite Democratic.  With that being said by the time of the next census districts ggo into effect in 2012, the district would have a decent chance of being in Dems hand anyway

NY-13 is a possibility.  One alternative could be to slice Staten Island into two seperate districts, and make each district have a larger slice of Brooklyn.  Another more possible scenario would be to change the sections of Brooklyn NY-13 holds, and make it a more Democratic & minority areas (Dyker Heighs, etc & some of the wealthier & whiter portions of Brooklyyn is what is currently included iN NY-13.

As far as Sue Kelly's district NY-19, I guess it could be jet setted further south to include some more minority heavy communities in southern Westchester, which would change the district

Can't speak that much for the upstate districts.

Peter King is to New York as:

Mark Kennedy is to Minnesota
Rick Santorum is to Pennsylvania

Meaning, he is an ultra conservative Bush-loving hack who is totally out of place with his electorate.

Why does King keep getting elected if Nassau and Suffolk are socially liberal?

Upstate New York is the opposite of Downstate, its 10 Districts, with 7 being GOP and the other 3 Dem, NY 27 near Buffalo switched to a Democrat in 2004    There are some good moderate Republican reps from Upstate.

In part due to him facing a bunch of poorly funded no names in the past who haven't been able to capitailze on King's weakness's with the district.  King has always been conservative, but he has really jogged to the right over the past five years, also King was once an Indpendent minded Republican ( he voted against Clinton's impeachment, though part of it may have come from the fact that it was an election year & he was in a district that Clinton was very popular in.  However, he has no switched into basically a Bush hard line GOP conservative wing nut, but he has not faced the opponentsto capitalize on it.  However, that might be changing with Nassau Legis Dave Mejias strongly considering a run (most likley will make a decision within the next couple weeks) & he has been urged to run by Israel (NY-02), and Ackerman (NY-05) as well as Suffolk County Chair Schaffer as well as Ill. Rep Emmanuel Rahm (who is chairing the Congressional Races for the house Dems)  Mejias runs, King gets a real strong challenge, something he hasn't had in the past.

If Hillary and Spitzer are sure to get elected this year then the next thing for the Dems to accomplish in NY must be to get that idiot King out of the House. I have no problem with RINOS but a Hardline Bush conservative in Long Island? Thats just wrong.

I agree & Long Island does have a tendency to give Republican Incumbents who have become out of touch the boot.  Name escapes me, but McCarthy's opponent in 96, Grucci (who was Bishop's opponent in 02, Former Nassau county Exec Tom Gullotta would have been demolished bY Suozzi in 01 if he ran again.  Most recentley we kicked to the curb 30 year  Nassau DA Incumbent Republican Dennis Dillion to the curb for Kathleen Rice (and Rice used Dillon's conservative views especially on abortion against him).

As I stated above King did have some helpful re-districting the last time around, he has been helped by low funded no names and 9/11 did turn things around in the district for 04.  However, the Bush 9/11 impact is gone, much like the rest of Long Island, Bush has become increasingly unpopular in the district, and this is at a time when King has become more conservative & gravitates more & more to Bush & becomes more & more of a loyal Bush Republican.  A well known, popular, well funded opponent could really make this a very interesting race.  While Tom Suozzi is my first choice he seems to have his eyes set on a damn near impossible Primary match against Spitzer, Dave Mejias (who actually represents my LD) seems to becoming more & more a likely candidate to run against King.  That off the bat makes this BY FAR the toughest race King would has had if Mejias indeed decides to run.  I don't know how good Mejias's chances would be, but the race would be quite competitive if he runs. 

By the way I do find it quite interesting to say the least that King, who has teneded to have a pro-immigration voting record is now sponsoring a very tough anti-immigration bill during a time when his most likely candidate is  hispanic (Mejias is from Cuban Descent)

[Smash255]

Could this happen in the NY gubernatorial election, where two strong liberal candidates split the liberal vote, and a conservative squeaks through?

A strong liberal Democrat, Spitzer                 33%
A strong liberal Republican, Weld                  33%
A strong Conservative Party candidate         34%

Just speculating.

Any comments?

No chance whatsoever