GA-Trafalgar: Ossoff +2, Warnock +1
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  GA-Trafalgar: Ossoff +2, Warnock +1		 « previous next »
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Author Topic: GA-Trafalgar: Ossoff +2, Warnock +1  (Read 4920 times)
Gracile
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Junior Chimp
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« on: December 29, 2020, 01:21:44 PM »


Jon Ossoff (D) 50%
David Perdue (R-inc) 48%

Raphael Warnock (D) 50%
Kelly Loeffler (R-inc) 49%

https://www.thetrafalgargroup.org/news/ga-sen-122/
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Bootes Void
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« Reply #1 on: December 29, 2020, 01:21:58 PM »
Nut
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Tintrlvr
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« Reply #2 on: December 29, 2020, 01:23:25 PM »
They're just putting this out so they can put out a Perdue+6, Loeffler+8 poll the day before Runoff Day and claim they have momentum.
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WD
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« Reply #3 on: December 29, 2020, 01:26:02 PM »
FAKE NOOZ! Perdue doing worse than Loeffler? It seems they didn’t account for Candidate Quality in this poll. Junk it. If they had any shred of credibility they’d find Perdue+7 and Warnock+30, you really hate to see it.
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Gracile
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« Reply #4 on: December 29, 2020, 01:28:12 PM »
Quote from: 306 on December 29, 2020, 01:23:25 PM
They're just putting this out so they can put out a Perdue+6, Loeffler+8 poll the day before Runoff Day and claim they have momentum.

Yeah, probably. I'm not putting too much stock in Trafalgar's runoff polls since GA was one of the few states they whiffed pretty badly.
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Matty
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« Reply #5 on: December 29, 2020, 01:29:48 PM »
Lmao, a 7 point swing?
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roxas11
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« Reply #6 on: December 29, 2020, 01:47:01 PM »
Somebody at Trafalgar must have gotten some god awful early vote data because thier latest poll repsents a huge swing from the last poll


Perdue was winning by +3 and now he is losing to Ossoff by +3

Loeffler went from winning by +7 points to losing to Warnock by +1

either Trump 2,000 dollar stunt hurt the GOP more than we all realize or Trafalgar is simply making this all up as they go along lol
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #7 on: December 29, 2020, 01:57:58 PM »
Hopefully this is the case.
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Senator Spark
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« Reply #8 on: December 29, 2020, 03:59:09 PM »
Interesting result. How accurate is this pollster?
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brucejoel99
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« Reply #9 on: December 29, 2020, 04:35:47 PM »
I don't care what the result is, never take a TrafLoLgar poll on its face.
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #10 on: December 29, 2020, 04:58:22 PM »
Quote from: Spark on December 29, 2020, 03:59:09 PM
Interesting result. How accurate is this pollster?

Not very.  Their results have tended to be all over the place.
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Attorney General & Senator Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #11 on: December 29, 2020, 05:04:22 PM »
Trafalgar hasn't shown a Dem ahead in error before, have they?
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KaiserDave
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« Reply #12 on: December 29, 2020, 05:08:03 PM »
I don't care about Trafalgar
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Matty
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« Reply #13 on: December 29, 2020, 05:38:53 PM »
Quote from: Lincoln Speaker Dwarven Dragon on December 29, 2020, 05:04:22 PM
Trafalgar hasn't shown a Dem ahead in error before, have they?

they underestimated trump in ohio, that's all I can think of.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #14 on: December 29, 2020, 05:46:39 PM »
Georgia has been one of their worst states historically too:

2018 Gov: Kemp +12 (R+11)
2020 Pres: Trump +5 (R+5)
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Attorney General & Senator Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #15 on: December 29, 2020, 05:48:39 PM »
Quote from: marty on December 29, 2020, 05:38:53 PM
Quote from: Lincoln Speaker Dwarven Dragon on December 29, 2020, 05:04:22 PM
Trafalgar hasn't shown a Dem ahead in error before, have they?

they underestimated trump in ohio, that's all I can think of.

Well it's not as if they showed Biden ahead.


AFAIK, whenever Trafalgar has shown a dem actually leading, the dem has always won.
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Matty
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« Reply #16 on: December 29, 2020, 05:48:42 PM »
Quote from: Gass3268 on December 29, 2020, 05:46:39 PM
Georgia has been one of their worst states historically too:

2018 Gov: Kemp +12 (R+11)
2020 Pres: Trump +5 (R+5)

yep, and also, imo, the very fact that this poll is so different from their poll earlier this month is a red flag. The idea that it swung 5-6 points is very fishy.

That is my opinion.

I want more polls here.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #17 on: December 29, 2020, 06:03:38 PM »
D's are in it to win🌊🌊🌊
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #18 on: December 29, 2020, 06:51:56 PM »
They still have Loeffler doing better than Perdue. Interesting.
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SnowLabrador
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« Reply #19 on: December 29, 2020, 07:52:22 PM »
Trafalgar's the only pollster I trust, so this is good news, although I would like the leads to be bigger.
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Tintrlvr
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« Reply #20 on: December 30, 2020, 10:04:22 AM »
Quote from: Lincoln Speaker Dwarven Dragon on December 29, 2020, 05:48:39 PM
Quote from: marty on December 29, 2020, 05:38:53 PM
Quote from: Lincoln Speaker Dwarven Dragon on December 29, 2020, 05:04:22 PM
Trafalgar hasn't shown a Dem ahead in error before, have they?

they underestimated trump in ohio, that's all I can think of.

Well it's not as if they showed Biden ahead.


AFAIK, whenever Trafalgar has shown a dem actually leading in their final poll of the race, the dem has always won.

An important caveat here. I doubt this will be Trafalgar's final poll, as noted above. They tend to release polls near-daily right before elections.
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Lambsbread
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« Reply #21 on: December 30, 2020, 11:47:35 AM »
So maybe Ossoff and Warnock are indeed up by 7-9 points
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #22 on: December 30, 2020, 11:50:25 AM »
Of course, Rs are gonna vote for Ossoff and WARNOCK
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Buzz
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« Reply #23 on: December 30, 2020, 12:24:04 PM »
Quote from: Lincoln Speaker Dwarven Dragon on December 29, 2020, 05:48:39 PM
Quote from: marty on December 29, 2020, 05:38:53 PM
Quote from: Lincoln Speaker Dwarven Dragon on December 29, 2020, 05:04:22 PM
Trafalgar hasn't shown a Dem ahead in error before, have they?

they underestimated trump in ohio, that's all I can think of.

Well it's not as if they showed Biden ahead.


AFAIK, whenever Trafalgar has shown a dem actually leading, the dem has always won.
no.  They had Ohio Gov 2018 at D +4
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President Johnson
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« Reply #24 on: December 30, 2020, 02:27:09 PM »
Considering the source, this is actually encouraging. However, after November, I take all polls with an even bigger grain of salt. I just don't want to get too optimistic and then wake again up with Majority Leader Mitch.
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