2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: Maryland

[ProgressiveModerate]

My attempt at an 8D-0R map that actually cleans up the current map a lot. 3 VRA black seats (2, 4, and 5). Obv a lot of incumbents would be unhappy, but a clean 8-0 map is possible.

This map holds for 2016 though the 1rst district is only Clinton + 1 (in 2020 is was Biden + 12 meaning it would be one of the fastest trending D districts nationally).

The biggest challenge is prolly not overpacking D voters into black VRA seats, espcially in the Baltimore area

[ProgressiveModerate]

Draft concepts 2 and 3 seem like the Dem gerries  where MD-1 is made into a Biden seat, whereas 1 and 4 still look like Dem gerries but preserve MD-1 as an R leaning district.

I was lowkey hoping they'd try and solve the absolute mess around Baltimore a bit more, but oh well, screw Sarbanes.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Just a reminder this map is just a starting point and it’s still very possible MD-1 becomes safer D. A lot a states have started with base maps that are relatively weak gerrymanders and shored them up (IL, GA, OH, just to name a few).

If this map passes as is I’d be very disappointed because it’s not a fair map nor an effective gerrymander, and puts individual politicians wants above everyone else.

[ProgressiveModerate]

From a partisan standpoint the main reason why this map isn't very effective at making MD-1 isn't because it doesn't take in Anapolis, more so that it should shed 80k+ people at the Northern part of the Penninsula to a blue Baltimore district and that way MD-1 can take in more of the mainland Maryland. This could make the district Biden + double digits without needing to take in Anapolis if that if is such a peoblem.

If Democrats are really that messed up to keep incumbents happy why not just draw MD-1 and MD-6 to be as blue as possible first then let the rest of the map fall into place?

[ProgressiveModerate]

So Maryland Dems really gonna let individual politicians wants get in the way, idk about you, but gerrymandering or not it’s pretty messed up.

[ProgressiveModerate]

So Maryland Dems really gonna let individual politicians wants get in the way, idk about you, but gerrymandering or not it’s pretty messed up.

This is quite literally how redistricting works in every state.

I think Maryland's a bit more extreme than the average state.

Exactly. Sarbanes is treated like royalty making the entire map a mess

[ProgressiveModerate]

So Maryland Dems really gonna let individual politicians wants get in the way, idk about you, but gerrymandering or not it’s pretty messed up.

This is quite literally how redistricting works in every state.

I think Maryland's a bit more extreme than the average state.

Exactly. Sarbanes is treated like royalty making the entire map a mess

His son was treated as royalty by everyone I shared my school environment with, too. They'd always give John a shoutout when "little Leo", as my band teacher called him, was playing the damn oboe. Political dynasties, loathsome as they are, carry undeniable clout, and the northern suburbs of Baltimore County were as devoted to the cult of Sarbanes as the cult of Michael Phelps.

Honestly kinda hoping MD-SC somehow overturns this map just to poop in Sarbanes face. The fact that this one dude literally gets to shape the rest of the map, making it not represent COIs, horrendously ugly, and not even be an effective gerrymander is just wrong.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Disappointing on so many levels

[ProgressiveModerate]

Reposting this for no particular reason

MD geography rlly is god awful for Dems. 2 likely R Trump seats are natural and rlly only 5 Safe Biden seats.

With that said I’m glad Sarbanes gets what he deserves

[ProgressiveModerate]

Reposting this for no particular reason

That blue district seems awfully long and spindly thanks to being divided by the water- to get from one end to another you'd have to drive in a hook shape.

Something like this might be more compact? Eight Biden districts, but the eastern two are only +2 and +3 while the western one is only +11, so it's pretty competitive.

Issue is one could argue that Baltimore seat cracks the black community

[ProgressiveModerate]

It's surprisingly hard to cancel out Cecil and Harford County's Republican leans with Baltimore without makign something illegal or just really disgusting. If I were Dems, I would put Cecil in MD-01 and attach it to Ann-Arbour likely creating a narrow but still winnable Trump seat.

Then MD-02 could be be safer suburban Baltimore seat and MD-06 as others have shown above becomes Biden + 9ish.

I really don't trust MD Dems though. I rlly feel like they're going to make a fair map from a partisanship standpoint that's still hideous somehow.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Does this increase the chances of NY's map being overturned?

Congressional Redistricting lawsuits have had a decently high rate of success this cycle to the point where this more open-ended interpreation of states equal protection clause or whatever is becoming a precedent almost.

I'm curious to see what happens in Kansas too.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Here's an example of a clean relatively goof COI map that still achieves the same partisanship goals as Dems previous map.

The court generally seemed to be most concerned about how MD's map violated COIs and was just awful and seemed to put partisan concerns as a second on the list, so Dems may have a small chance of the court accepting a map such as this, but they still mention Dems gerrymandering as a problem so likely not.

2 would be a 32% black opportunity seat in this district (the majority of the Dem primary is likely black).

Worst case for Dems would be if the court drew the map and created 2 pretty R districts on both panhandles plus maybe a likely D seat somewhere in the Baltimore suburbs.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Worst case map for MD Dems prolly looks something like this

[ProgressiveModerate]

I hear there is a new proposed map that will be voted on tomorrow.  Has anyone found any analysis?

No haven't seen an actual map yet. Seems like it will be released tomorow .

Rlly don’t like the lack of transparency from MD Dems and the general lack of public input and stuff

[ProgressiveModerate]

Thank god they didn’t pull an Ohio

[ProgressiveModerate]

Also worth noting MD-01 isn’t really a pack; it’s unpacked from the current map considering. Still should be likely R at worst unless the district swings another 12 points to the left.

[ProgressiveModerate]

It rlly gonna be a relief to have the DC metro area actually be relatively clean for the first time in a while.

[ProgressiveModerate]

What’re the chances this map holds up? Have Rs signaled anything in terms of a response? This seems like a very fair map from Dems that is reasonably clean, but not sure about VRA compliance.

A third Black majority district is easily drawable but Democrats aren't going to do that unless the courts force them to because Steny Hoyer doesn't want to lose a primary, basically. 🤮

While the clear intent to keep Hoyer's needs met is gross IMO, tbf, MD's black population is only 30%. 2 Majority Black seats + an opportunity seat they have a very good chance in once Hoyer retires should be good.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Honestly if DC just continues to consume more and more of Maryland it may become the bluest state nationally.