Do the Dems have any incentive at all to not do an 8-0 gerrymander? I assume they have a veto proof majority on the state level.
They do. Anything less than 7-1 is obviously a nonstarter. I think the reason that the current map isn't 8-0 is annoying incumbents with annoying requests (e.g. one wanted to be in the DC, Baltimore, and Annapolis media markets to boost a potential future statewide run) but my money is on 8-0 after redistricting.
I think that was largely moot in the current map in terms of MD-03. Unless he's planning a gubernatorial run, John Sarbanes is probably a lifer in the House. MD-02 has its shape because Dutch Ruppersberger wants multiple military bases in his district that don't naturally fit together. In the last redistricting, Donna Edwards didn't get the district she would have liked. She was low in seniority, something that is now true of most of the MD delegation. Hoyer will get whatever he wants for as long as he wants to remain in Congress (the same is true of Ruppersberger).
I do think MD Dems will go for 8-0. Most maps have MD-01 crossing the Chesapeake, but Baltimore is another option. There are a number of parochial interests in Maryland, but some will be ignored for the greater good. Maryland is rock-solid Democratic and trending even moreso. They can push their luck, especially considering Biden won the state by 33%.
Sarbanes' parochialism is weird. As noted, he wanted a tentacle that touched all the metro areas so that he could appear on all the local media stations and build a brand for a statewide run. Except that run never happened even though there was a perfectly good opportunity in 2016 and a decent one in 2018. This leaves one with three possible conclusions, all which likely allow the district to drastically change shape - as long as he still lives in the seat of course.
1) He's decided to stay in Congress so there is no need for any wider appeal.
2) He's gonna run for one of the open offices in 2022, which means the seat is open and flexible.
3) He is understood among the party to be Cardin's heir designate. He therefore does not need the encompassing district because the mass of statewide endorsements and support he will automatically receive in 2024, or whenever the seat opens, will be stronger than any marginal initial name recognition.
This is exactly why so many young, left-leaning voters sit out every single election. When one spoiled, privilege baby who used dad's name to parlay a run into Congress takes precedence over entire communities, your party isn't that democratic now is it?
I really hope that: A. Nobody gives a sh**t what Sarbanes wants and B. He doesn't just succeed Cardin without a fight. We need to be a pro-democracy party, and Maryland's maps rn reflect a straight up corrupt way of thinking.
