NJ-SEN 2024: Draggin' The Line (3/24: Murphy OUT)

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https://twitter.com/AndyKimNJ/status/1705658967878230372?t=yIr2waEJ0j-vpLbeSWiCN...

Andy Kim running

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https://twitter.com/wildstein/status/1724774500355731670?t=PKi_eDha0xAdHaItr3msA...

DOA

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I wouldn't get too comfortable if I'm Kim, but it's easy for some of us to forget that most voters are not voting based on machine politics anymore; we've seen plenty of "establishment choice" candidates lose primaries to candidates with much more grassroots support (looking at you, Conor Lamb!)

Also if he gets his name rec up and people want to vote for him they will find his name and vote.

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I can't imagine most NJ Dem voters would appreciate what amounts to purchasing a seat. If Kim makes a case against her and hammers her on this it could work.

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Lisa McCormick got 38% and no county lines. Kim is a much better candidate and will get at least a couple.

Bob Menendez was incredibly controversial in the way that Murphy isn't. It's not even like the Governor is unpopular. I think people's hatred of political machines or maybe just of New Jersey is clouding their analysis here. Murphy can lose sure, but she has an endorsements advantage, an infrastructure advantage, and as a result, a likely funding advantage. In a state as expensive as New Jersey, I think it is going to be hard for Kim to make the argument about why he should receive millions of dollars in donations in a safe state race. (You already see this in CA where other than Schiff (who has the type of national press a national Rep can only dream of) and Porter (who has already had to raise lots of money from being in a swing seat race for many years in an expensive district and also appears quite a lot on media), candidates have struggled to fundraise. Sure Kim has been in a swing seat before, but he is not on national media a lot, and this is going to hurt him among the type of donor base he needs to even get the funds to be viable. Even then, I'm not sure it'll be enough because there's almost no way I see him making inroads in the ethnic machine counties in the Northeast which are heavily populated (even more so in a Democratic primary). If Kim somehow wins it'll only be after wasting millions of dollars in a safe seat that could've gone elsewhere. If, as I expect, he loses, we will have wasted all this energy on a primary that didn't matter. The fact that Kim's only endorsements are from his own CD says a lot about both how people expect this to go and also that time is running out for him to drop down.

Endorsements do not matter anymore, and they haven't mattered for years.

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https://www.politico.com/news/2023/12/19/kim-murphy-polling-nj-senate-race-00132429

Kim leads by 23. It's an internal but that is still a very big lead. Hard to see how county lines would be enough to evaporate a double digit lead.

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https://www.politico.com/news/2023/12/19/kim-murphy-polling-nj-senate-race-00132429

Kim leads by 23. It's an internal but that is still a very big lead. Hard to see how county lines would be enough to evaporate a double digit lead.

There were some early internal polls in AL which had Mo Brooks leading by a huge amount and we all know how that turned out.

That’s not a one to one comparison. Brooks lost Trump’s support which is what killed his campaign. There’s not really an equivalent to democrats

He was severely slipping even before that. Trump rescinded his endorsement because Brooks was polling so poorly and he didn't want a loss on his record.

Regardless there’s no Trump equivalent who can sway the election in Murphy’s favor.

Also doesn't she have underwater fav?

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The people actually want Kim

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It sounds too good to be true, but he's doing very well so far. Here's hoping

Well this was one of the easier endorsements for him to win. The big urban counties are still against him and they cast the most votes. Anyway, I do find it bizarre the level of emotion this primary has attracted, particularly some of the rhetoric towards Tammy Murphy, for instance some people just think she got where she was because she’s the Governor’s wife, ignoring that she had a very successful private sector career before that. I think people need to be careful about what attacks they exactly parrot because it’s at first glance easy to miss the insinuations in comments like that. The above post gets me in this regard because it seems to imply it’s wrong or at least abnormal to support Murphy, which isn’t really respectful to her voters.

The big urban counties are not against him, the big urban machines are. Let's not act like its otherwise.

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https://www.politico.com/news/2024/02/22/tammy-murphy-campaign-manager-departs-00142775

Uh oh!!

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I would not share such a negative view towards political machines. If anything the delivering of things to communities is plainly more concrete of a way to proceed than an amorphous ideology-based qualification. There's nothing "cynical" about supporting someone because they've fixed a school or a road in your community. And those are tangible things. Wouldn't it be more cynical to use ideological purism as a way to climb the ladder?

Machine politics is in fact an effective way to shave off the worst edges of hyper-ideologicalized politics. It's generally an important element in a functional political system.

Me making things up

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Yeah, I think people were hyping this one up a little too much. Kim has done well to give himself a real chance at the nomination, but Murphy is definitely still the favorite.

The only people saying she's the favorite are machine people and journos who just parrot them, and S019 ofc

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She's beyond cooked

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Well, that's that, then!

https://twitter.com/wildstein/status/1771981599845818731

Safe Murphy to Likely Murphy

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QURAISHI MUADDIB