If he keeps up this "moderate hero" rhetoric, he will lose.
Just like Joe Manchin, Jared Golden, Susan Collins, and Sinema lost their races?
I mean, it’s pretty clear Sinema’s Moderate Hero schtick has almost singlehandedly tanked her approvals to the point where she wouldn’t even win the primary if it were held today and Golden didn’t really start these antics until after the 2020 election. Manchin has gotten lucky with his past opponents, but his performative ConservaDem schtick definitely helps him in WV. Collins isn’t even remotely moderate, she’s a generic partisan hack who has managed to dupe enough Democrats into thinking she’s a moderate to win re-election. As such Golden doesn’t really work to prove your point and Sinema is actually evidence that supports SnowLabrador’s argument.
I doubt anyone cares about this tweet, but if Kelly starts being perceived as holding up things Democrats actually care about like HB 1, gun control, $15 minimum wage (Sinema made herself the face of ConservaDem opposition to that even if it was never gonna pass in hindsight), etc or starts making keeping the filibuster a hill to die on then he’ll likely lose. I doubt that will happen though, especially since he’s had a chance to see how much that schtick hurt Sinema with voters (tanked her approvals with Democrats without increasing her support from Republicans or independents IIRC).
I suspect Kelly is just waiting to quietly get on the reservation until we’re actually at the point where it really matters. Manchin changes his position practically every week and Sinema probably isn’t gonna choose to randomly destroy her political career and ensure a humiliating defeat in 2024 (either by losing the primary or with a low-to-mid double-digit loss in the GE) b/c of some weird obsession with keeping the filibuster. I mean, does anyone think that is the one issue she feels so passionately about that she’ll sacrifice her political career over it? Seriously?
I think Sinema just miscalculated and assumed she’d be getting bipartisan praise from the pundit class and solidify her popularity with independents by vocally opposing filibuster reform. Now that it has become clear that rather than being heralded as John McCain’s second coming, she’s just managed to piss off her base w/o gaining any meaningful crossover support, she’ll probably wait to reverse course until she gets a high-profile opportunity to do so.
If she times her filibuster flip-flop right and it gets enough play, it’ll give her a real shot at undoing the damage. However, it’s far too early for that atm. That’ll happen when HB 1 is actually being debated although Manchin and her are going to have to negotiate their choreography.
