Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[Red Velvet]

Why does it matter to you WHY India is buying Russian oil? The fact is that they are buying tons of it and that is great to give Russia a way out of the sanctions!

What is exactly that you’re bragging about? Uhh India is helping Russia but it’s not because they like like Russia, they still like us better. Is international geopolitics like middle school to you people or something?

It’s so fascinating to see how most people here tend to frame everything under a morality or friends logic lmao. The other dude was posting some irrelevant map about what powerless average people abroad think of the US.

Newsflash: there isn’t morality OR true “friendship” in geopolitics. Everyone is driven by their self-interests. They can be directed towards different things simultaneously and sometimes may be even misguided internal strategies, but no ones does anything only because they have more personal friendship with one country more than they have with another.

No, of course not. Indians have always been world-renowned for haggling, so they aren't making decisions based on friendship or feelings. The fact that the Indian government calculated that it was the best course of action to order its buyers to buy Russian oil at a price cap the western countries imposed, which effectively forces the Russians to sell the oil at barely any profit, means they're happy to let the Russians suffer if they save some foreign exchange. The fact that the Indian government ordered its buyers not to use Chinese Yuan to buy Russian oil out of distrust of China - and directed them to use what is effectively a sovereign-backed US Dollar-based stablecoin instead - also means they would rather perpetuate US financial hegemony than enjoy whatever benefit that might exist with trading in Chinese Yuan. Nothing wrong with that, but it disproves any notion that the Global South is coalescing around Russia in its fight against western hegemony.

Depends on what you consider “siding with Russia” because the meaning of that seems to change around here depending on what’s more convenient.

I’m tired of hearing here that neutrality is impossible in this situation of aggression and that it is by default a “Pro-Russia” position. But when it’s undeniably pointed the neutrality of global south countries in this conflict, you shift the narrative to Global South isn’t getting behind Russia because they’re neutral, it’s “only business” as you mention for India.

You can only pick one narrative without entering a contradiction. If western leaders weren’t concerned about where the global south stands in this this conflict, you wouldn’t hear the stuff that leaders like Macron talk very publicly about here:

https://www.twitter.com/FromSteveHowell/status/1627396580780257281

Macron is also a f@cking idiot with the political instincts of a demented walrus.

Why is he? For voicing the exact stuff I’ve always been voicing here when you probably think it’s not convenient to do so from a Western perspective to even acknowledge the existence of a Global South?

Something like that, yeah.

Ok then, I appreciate you validating what I describe as a western real concern from some leaders instead of wish-thinking like others have described. 

[Virginiá]

Update from previous post: Ukrainian commander of the 46th Airmobile Brigade was demoted after he talked to Washington Post about how grim the situation really is. Ukrainian war journalist, Yuri Butusov, even defended him for this. The now former commander "Kupol" handed a resignation letter after being demoted.

Please Zelensky stans, defend this:

I wouldn't defend it, it doesn't seem justified, but at the same time I don't also park my ass in a thread I see as full of "Zelenskyy stans" desperately trying to convince them that 200% of everything they read about Ukraine is BS propaganda and here is why my takes are right, and also here are 20 Andrew Perpetua tweets!

[Torie]

I wonder if this rather sudden chat about jets to Ukraine is about trying to give Ukraine control of the air over its attack path south to the Black Sea. I don't see how it could all work without air superiority in the vicinity. One would also not want Russia ships in the Black Sea blasting away on the attack route either from too close a range.

No, I don't know a damn thing about things military. Just asking and musing.

[Hindsight was 2020]

Update from previous post: Ukrainian commander of the 46th Airmobile Brigade was demoted after he talked to Washington Post about how grim the situation really is. Ukrainian war journalist, Yuri Butusov, even defended him for this. The now former commander "Kupol" handed a resignation letter after being demoted.

Please Zelensky stans, defend this:

I wouldn't defend it, it doesn't seem justified, but at the same time I don't also park my ass in a thread I see as full of "Zelenskyy stans" desperately trying to convince them that 200% of everything they read about Ukraine is BS propaganda and here is why my takes are right, and also here are 20 Andrew Perpetua tweets!

Also there is this weird article of faith that staying in Bakmut in Zelenskyy’s call but most articles on the situation aren’t really clear if it’s Zelenskyy or the generals who want to stay

[Logical]

Fascinating read on Wagner. Most interesting tidbit, every single one of them is personally loyal to Prigozhin only. This gives him the advantage in any power struggle that will surely follow once Putin is out of the picture. https://twitter.com/felix_light/status/1636327220128931843
https://twitter.com/felix_light/status/1636337980267741186

[Logical]

A video with a perspective I haven't seen shared in this war before:

https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1630913565073764359?s=20

Another reason why Russian casualties are so high. Instead of being evacuated like proper armies do, Andryuha is freezing his ass off in a shell crater for two days. He's probably as good as dead.

That crew shockingly survived. Very lucky in comparison to other guys who got slaughtered over there. The video is viral in Russia rn:

https://twitter.com/DefMon3/status/1630991452216983563

Final update. Andryuha died in the hospital. A good medevac system saves lives, but Russia is incapable of providing it. Hence the 1:3 casualty ratio Ukrainians claim is believable.
https://twitter.com/666_mancer/status/1636471111595458561

[Woody]

Update from previous post: Ukrainian commander of the 46th Airmobile Brigade was demoted after he talked to Washington Post about how grim the situation really is. Ukrainian war journalist, Yuri Butusov, even defended him for this. The now former commander "Kupol" handed a resignation letter after being demoted.

Please Zelensky stans, defend this:

I wouldn't defend it, it doesn't seem justified, but at the same time I don't also park my ass in a thread I see as full of "Zelenskyy stans" desperately trying to convince them that 200% of everything they read about Ukraine is BS propaganda and here is why my takes are right, and also here are 20 Andrew Perpetua tweets!

Yes. Andrew is very based.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Update from previous post: Ukrainian commander of the 46th Airmobile Brigade was demoted after he talked to Washington Post about how grim the situation really is. Ukrainian war journalist, Yuri Butusov, even defended him for this. The now former commander "Kupol" handed a resignation letter after being demoted.

Please Zelensky stans, defend this:

I wouldn't defend it, it doesn't seem justified, but at the same time I don't also park my ass in a thread I see as full of "Zelenskyy stans" desperately trying to convince them that 200% of everything they read about Ukraine is BS propaganda and here is why my takes are right, and also here are 20 Andrew Perpetua tweets!

Yes. Andrew is very based.

He seems better than a lot of the random Twitter OSINT sources which get posted here, but I would advise against posting 20 of his tweets in quick succession. Just precis them and/or suggest going to his profile, for readability's sake.

[Virginiá]

He seems better than a lot of the random Twitter OSINT sources which get posted here, but I would advise against posting 20 of his tweets in quick succession. Just precis them and/or suggest going to his profile, for readability's sake.

Yea with all due respect to this and others even, posting a barrage of tweets makes this thread hard to read, particularly because this forum by default shows all of the tweet content, including whoever they replied to, media, etc. Posting just a few tweets can blow up the page quite a bit if they have a lot of embedded content. We all do that on occasion but the key is to not do it frequently.

Also this is supposed to be a general thread, not really a OSINT dumping ground for every tactical change on the battlefield. There is a place for that kind of thing, and this thread isn't it IMO. I almost want to say that if users just really want to post that level of detail, maybe we start another thread for it.

[NOVA Green]

Politico, citing US officials, says Ukraine has suffered ~100,000 KIA:

‘Ukraine doesn’t have any time to waste’: U.S. races to prepare Kyiv for spring offensive

Russia has spent months pummeling the country with missiles, seeking not only to cause destruction but also deplete Ukraine’s air defense stocks. Ukrainian soldiers have described acute shortages of basic ammunition, including mortar rounds and artillery shells. And upwards of 100,000 Ukrainian forces have died in the year-long war, U.S. officials estimate, including the most experienced soldiers.

I am skeptical of this figure, though I suppose maybe it makes sense if, while specific battles like Bakhmut and Vuledhar have been costly for Russia, Russia's superiority in stockpiles of artillery munitions has allowed them to inflict more favorable casualty ratios on the "quieter" parts of the front.

If that's true, it would mean the US estimates more Ukrainian casualties that Russian ones (I believe their figure for Russian death is around 60k?). This simply doesn't match the effective combat power we see on the ground, especially if you factor in Russia's advantage in equipment.

We really, badly need some neutral estimates of losses on both sides.

Yeah...  but really one must also consider the fact that:

1.)  Politico has gotten objectively worse since it was purchased by Axel Springer, and
2.)  the "upwards of 100,000" number was cited by "US Officials" who clearly are trying to create a worst case scenario as a driver to push policy and funding for increased US support for Ukraine in both terms of military assets, training.

Honestly it seems to me like the "upwards of 100k Ukrainian dead" sounds more like TOTAL Ukrainian military casualties versus KIA.

[Buffalo Mayor Young Kim]

Politico, citing US officials, says Ukraine has suffered ~100,000 KIA:

‘Ukraine doesn’t have any time to waste’: U.S. races to prepare Kyiv for spring offensive

Russia has spent months pummeling the country with missiles, seeking not only to cause destruction but also deplete Ukraine’s air defense stocks. Ukrainian soldiers have described acute shortages of basic ammunition, including mortar rounds and artillery shells. And upwards of 100,000 Ukrainian forces have died in the year-long war, U.S. officials estimate, including the most experienced soldiers.

I am skeptical of this figure, though I suppose maybe it makes sense if, while specific battles like Bakhmut and Vuledhar have been costly for Russia, Russia's superiority in stockpiles of artillery munitions has allowed them to inflict more favorable casualty ratios on the "quieter" parts of the front.

If that's true, it would mean the US estimates more Ukrainian casualties that Russian ones (I believe their figure for Russian death is around 60k?). This simply doesn't match the effective combat power we see on the ground, especially if you factor in Russia's advantage in equipment.

We really, badly need some neutral estimates of losses on both sides.

Yeah...  but really one must also consider the fact that:

1.)  Politico has gotten objectively worse since it was purchased by Axel Springer, and
2.)  the "upwards of 100,000" number was cited by "US Officials" who clearly are trying to create a worst case scenario as a driver to push policy and funding for increased US support for Ukraine in both terms of military assets, training.

Honestly it seems to me like the "upwards of 100k Ukrainian dead" sounds more like TOTAL Ukrainian military casualties versus KIA.

On 1) Politico was never good

[Hindsight was 2020]

I would of pulled out earlier and they’ll probably have to ultimately leave but hell it’s almost St Pattys day and Bakmut still stands and has a slim but possible chance of actually being a Ukraine victory (but only if ISW assessment is right and if the counterattack goes really well). The bravery of the Ukrainian soldiers is awe inspiring

[Frodo]

China has apparently been arming Russia for months now in blatant violation of sanctions, despite their denials:

‘Hunting rifles’ — really? China ships assault weapons and body armor to Russia
Customs data obtained by POLITICO reveals direct shipments of Chinese assault rifles, as well as drone shipments and body armor routed via Turkey and the UAE.

Chinese companies, including one connected to the government in Beijing, have sent Russian entities 1,000 assault rifles and other equipment that could be used for military purposes, including drone parts and body armor, according to trade and customs data obtained by POLITICO.

The shipments took place between June and December 2022, according to the data provided by Import Genius, a customs data aggregator.

 

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

https://twitter.com/Tendar/status/1635369209936101376

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

https://twitter.com/mfa_russia/status/1570007223132209152

[jaichind]

The real battle for Donbas will be the fight for the high ground between Bakhmut and Slovyansk-Kramatorsk-Kostyantynivka which is the battle yet to come.

Looks like Russians going after what I consider more critical than Bakhmut part of the battlefield which is the heights between Bakhmut and Slovyansk-Kramatorsk-Kostyantynivka.  The real battle of Donbas is about to begin.
https://twitter.com/WarMonitors/status/1636638670135468035

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

China has apparently been arming Russia for months now in blatant violation of sanctions, despite their denials:

‘Hunting rifles’ — really? China ships assault weapons and body armor to Russia
Customs data obtained by POLITICO reveals direct shipments of Chinese assault rifles, as well as drone shipments and body armor routed via Turkey and the UAE.

Chinese companies, including one connected to the government in Beijing, have sent Russian entities 1,000 assault rifles and other equipment that could be used for military purposes, including drone parts and body armor, according to trade and customs data obtained by POLITICO.

The shipments took place between June and December 2022, according to the data provided by Import Genius, a customs data aggregator.

These are civilian-grade rifles. They may be somewhat effective arms in war, but American could buy one without a special license IIRC.

China is more relaxed about Russia using dual-use goods for its military than most of the world, but this is not the same thing as allowing them to buy e.g. armoured personnel carriers or sending stuff from government stocks. Both Russia and Ukraine buy large numbers of Chinese-made civilian drones.

[jaichind]

If I were PRC and I wanted to send arms to Russia the way I would do it is to send them to Belarus which is not an armed participant and then for Belarus to return to Russia arms that Russia gave Belarus over the years.  This gives the PRC the ability to argue it is not arming Russia but achieving the same result.  Functionally I am not sure PRC arms would be compatible with Belarus military but that same problem would be there for PRC arms to be used by Russia.

[jaichind]

https://censor.net/en/news/3406331/government_of_slovakia_approved_transfer_of_13_mig29_fighters_to_ukraine_prime_minister_heger

"Government of Slovakia approved transfer of 13 MiG-29 fighters to Ukraine, - Prime Minister, Heger"

[dead0man]

China has apparently been arming Russia for months now in blatant violation of sanctions, despite their denials:

‘Hunting rifles’ — really? China ships assault weapons and body armor to Russia
Customs data obtained by POLITICO reveals direct shipments of Chinese assault rifles, as well as drone shipments and body armor routed via Turkey and the UAE.

Chinese companies, including one connected to the government in Beijing, have sent Russian entities 1,000 assault rifles and other equipment that could be used for military purposes, including drone parts and body armor, according to trade and customs data obtained by POLITICO.

The shipments took place between June and December 2022, according to the data provided by Import Genius, a customs data aggregator.

China is more relaxed about Russia using dual-use goods for its military than most of the world, but this is not the same thing as allowing them to buy e.g. armoured personnel carriers or sending stuff from government stocks. Both Russia and Ukraine buy large numbers of Chinese-made civilian drones.

my favorite part of the story is that Russians (and those that simp for them) just love the AK, claim it's the best and there have been about 75 kabillion of them made, but Russia still has to import cheap Chinese M16 knockoffs less than a year into a war they started.

These are civilian-grade rifles. They may be somewhat effective arms in war, but American could buy one without a special license IIRC.

if they are civilian grade they will only fire in semi-auto, no burst, no full auto.  And you know they ain't getting scopes.  Single shot and iron sites.  Not worthless on the 2023 battlefield, but not super useful either.

[Logical]

https://censor.net/en/news/3406331/government_of_slovakia_approved_transfer_of_13_mig29_fighters_to_ukraine_prime_minister_heger

"Government of Slovakia approved transfer of 13 MiG-29 fighters to Ukraine, - Prime Minister, Heger"

Excellent deal for Slovakia, as they get a nice lump sump from the US and EU twice the value of the jets themselves.
https://twitter.com/ArkturusRX/status/1636661660541698048

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

https://censor.net/en/news/3406331/government_of_slovakia_approved_transfer_of_13_mig29_fighters_to_ukraine_prime_minister_heger

"Government of Slovakia approved transfer of 13 MiG-29 fighters to Ukraine, - Prime Minister, Heger"

Excellent deal for Slovakia, as they get a nice lump sump from the US and EU twice the value of the jets themselves.
https://twitter.com/ArkturusRX/status/1636661660541698048

At about $70 million per jet, they're getting more than twice the value of a new MiG-29 of the latest Russian model and more than the value of a new F-16.

When following the MiG-29 saga earlier in the war, I recall stories involving used, demilitarised MiG-29s being sold for ~$5-10 million.

The Slovakian jets are not demilitarised, but they are Soviet export models with a make slightly older than Ukraine's and a few domestic/NATO upgrades. However, IIRC, they do half their maximum service life left (which is better than some of the jets Ukraine must be flying).

Even when you consider that Ukraine is probably getting the rest of their plane parts, any remaining MiG-29-exclusive munitions, and at least 1 battery (probably no more than 5 batteries) of 2K12 Kub, Slovakia likely profits from this deal.

They can afford to do this because MiG-29 suppliers, pre-war, were already decreasing in number for a long while. The biggest left are Russia (not selling) and Ukraine. The market has gotten so bad that Serbia has opted against upgrading theirs to extend the jets' lives, and Bulgaria has recently paid ~$15m for 6 renovated MiG-29 engines. This figure is high, but at $2.5m per engine, it stands in stark contrast to Slovakia's compensation.

They have two reasons to charge a premium. One is the period of risk until their new air defences and jets come online, and the other is that they gave away a whole S-300 system in exchange for the US and Germany temporarily operating their own Patriot systems in Slovakia.

[Virginiá]

At about $70 million per jet, they're getting more than twice the value of a new MiG-29 of the latest Russian model and more than the value of a new F-16.

When following the MiG-29 saga earlier in the war, I recall stories involving used, demilitarised MiG-29s being sold for ~$5-10 million.

The Slovakian jets are not demilitarised, but they are Soviet export models with a make slightly older than Ukraine's and a few domestic/NATO upgrades. However, IIRC, they do half their maximum service life left (which is better than some of the jets Ukraine must be flying).

Even when you consider that Ukraine is probably getting the rest of their plane parts, any remaining MiG-29-exclusive munitions, and at least 1 battery (probably no more than 5 batteries) of 2K12 Kub, Slovakia likely profits from this deal.

They can afford to do this because MiG-29 suppliers, pre-war, were already decreasing in number for a long while. The biggest left are Russia (not selling) and Ukraine. The market has gotten so bad that Serbia has opted against upgrading theirs to extend the jets' lives, and Bulgaria has recently paid ~$15m for 6 renovated MiG-29 engines. This figure is high, but at $2.5m per engine, it stands in stark contrast to Slovakia's compensation.

They have two reasons to charge a premium. One is the period of risk until their new air defences and jets come online, and the other is that they gave away a whole S-300 system in exchange for the US and Germany temporarily operating their own Patriot systems in Slovakia.

According to this article, the actual compensation for the jets is $200 million, and the remainder is the monetary value of military equipment being given to Slovakia by the US, which hasn't yet been detailed:

The prime minister was alluding to the notified compensation worth 900 million euros. The Slovak Ministry of Defense should receive approximately EUR 200 million from the European Peace Instrument. According to Naď, this money will only come to the account of the next government, which will be formed after the September elections.

The second part of the almost one billion compensation is to be made up of specific military equipment that the United States of America wants to donate to Slovakia for miga. "There is a bilateral offer from the United States of America for specific military equipment, the financial value of which in financial terms for the Slovak Republic will be around 700 million euros," Naď explained today.

However, according to Naď, the American side does not yet want to publish information about exactly what technology is involved. However, he has already provided information about it, for example, to members of the National Council who participated in the secret meeting of the Defense Security Committee. "This is mainly due to the fact that several countries applied for the technology, and Slovakia was the one that won the competition," he clarified the non-disclosure of Naď's offer, according to which it is only a matter of days.

Not that it changes the overall value for Slovakia, but just an interesting tidbit.

[Sir Mohamed]

BASED.

https://twitter.com/AFP/status/1636750487310716928

[Hindsight was 2020]

Sir Mohammed made a thread on it but it also deserves to be posted here
https://mobile.twitter.com/jimsciutto/status/1636747402865516549