Canada General Discussion (2019-)

[CascadianIndy]

Two new polls today, one from Angus Reid and another from Abacus. While the two might look somewhat normal in comparison to recent polls in the past few weeks, the Abacus regionals are explosive.

Regardless, here are the toplines!

AR:

LPC 35
CPC 30
NDP 19
BQ 7
GPC 3
PPC 3

Abacus:
LPC 37
CPC 25
NDP 20
BQ 8
GPC 6
PPC 2

Both of these have a Liberal majority, albeit being a slim one. What's really eye-popping are the Abacus regionals in the Prairies.

Saskytoba:
CPC 35
LPC 31
NDP 22

Alberta
CPC 38
NDP 29
LPC 22

I'm not sure what drugs Abacus was on, but I want some of them. These numbers would have the NDP breaking through in Edmonton, gaining Griesbach, Manning, Riverbend, and West. Notley is carrying so much water for the feds I'm shocked her back hasn't broken yet.

[Хahar 🤔]

It seems like every poll has some sort of shocking result when looking at the crosstabs by province, which suggests that those provincial breakdowns are not very reliable.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

It seems like every poll has some sort of shocking result when looking at the crosstabs by province, which suggests that those provincial breakdowns are not very reliable.

I mean, Angus' breakdowns are pretty close to the polling consensus. Abacus is too, east of Manitoba, but is picking up on a huge leftward shift in the west. I don't buy the degree of that change, but there's a pretty solid polling consensus that Alberta in particular will shift left this time around in a way we haven't seen for generations, and that the CPC could be in sub-30% territory in BC. I wouldn't be surprised to see the CPC sub-50% in Alberta (largely due to the rise of the fringe right), but sub-40% seems a bit much.

Alberta's had a dramatic decade. Oil went from over $100/barrel to $40ish, even hitting negative digits at one point (somehow). The relationship between the oil sands and the Conservative brand is a huge contributing factor to Albertan conservatism. But as the CPC has softened up on oil fetishism, and former and current oil workers increasingly face very difficult circumstances, that relationship is deteriorating. Some ex-Tories are looking to the fringe right for salvation, like the WIP and Mavericks, while others are moving to the left. Notley showed that voting for progressive parties in Alberta doesn't have to be completely futile, and Kenney is showing that voting for the Conservatives isn't an antidote to economic problems. Finally, O'Toole has furthered the damage by endorsing a carbon tax-lite and getting cozy with Albertans' favourite province, Quebec.

[King of Kensington]

A rebuttal to Andrew Coyne from a prominent Canadian political scientist:

https://twitter.com/regwhit1/status/1423792889566429190

[Benjamin Frank]

A rebuttal to Andrew Coyne from a prominent Canadian political scientist:

https://twitter.com/regwhit1/status/1423792889566429190

It isn't just Andrew Coyne, prominent constitutional scholar and all-round controversial Canadian Norman Spector made the same arguments before the calling of the B.C election. (Spector helped negotiate the deal between the B.C NDP and the B.C Greens in 2017 and previously helped negotiate the failed Meech Lake Accords.)

Norman Spector: If premier asks for legislature to be dissolved, send him away to think about it
An open letter to B.C.'s Lieutenant Governor

https://www.vancouverisawesome.com/opinion/norman-spector-snap-election-john-horgan-bc-2020-2717199

I don't know about the Constitutionality, but as far as I'm concerned, we have a working Parliament (despite the best attempts of the Liberals) with legislation in the Senate, and a full plate of issues that require a government right now, and this government still has two years in its mandate.

[Bernie Derangement Syndrome Haver]

So...is an election call coming today?

[Silent Hunter]

Why would it come on a Sunday?

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

Why would it come on a Sunday?

Twitter Rumour Mill, lots of campagins are planning to launch on that day.

[RogueBeaver]

https://twitter.com/glen_mcgregor/status/1424333791909273601

[RogueBeaver]

RIP Bill Davis.

[MaxQue]

RIP Bill Davis.

Ontario Premier 1971-1985, representing a seat called Peel which sounds insane to me right now (that area is now represented by 11.5 MPs/MPPs)

[King of Kensington]

Cancelling Spadina Expressway, TVOntario, community colleges...what a legacy!

[King of Kensington]

Adam Vaughan is calling it quits

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/adam-vaughan-not-running-again-1.6134329

[RogueBeaver]

As are fellow Grits Larry Bagnell, Will Amos, Karen McCrimmon.

Adam Vaughan is calling it quits

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/adam-vaughan-not-running-again-1.6134329

[Benjamin Frank]

Apparently both Will Amos and Karen McCrimmon will not be running again either.

[CumbrianLefty]

Cancelling Spadina Expressway, TVOntario, community colleges...what a legacy!

And he was a Tory!

[Benjamin Frank]

Cancelling Spadina Expressway, TVOntario, community colleges...what a legacy!

And he was a Tory!

He was a centrist Progressive Conservative. The provincial Liberal Party for some of his time as Premier was a rural based party that was to the right of the Progressive Conservatives.  Bill Davis also had a minority government for a good deal of his time in office and, I believe, he was mostly propped up by the NDP.

[Hatman 🍁]

We have not had a good person be a Tory Premier since Bill Davis.

[King of Kensington]

Vaughan retiring seems to have given a boost of encouragement to the NDP.  Spadina-Fort York is a young riding and Singh polls well among young voters.  Still it's a 36 point gap to close, so it's more about a strong performance than actually winning it.  The NDP is running school trustee Norm Di Pasquale there.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

Vaughan retiring seems to have given a boost of encouragement to the NDP.  Spadina-Fort York is a young riding and Singh polls well among young voters.  Still it's a 36 point gap to close, so it's more about a strong performance than actually winning it.  The NDP is running school trustee Norm Di Pasquale there.

Not sure how much pull school trustees have in an overwhelmingly young riding tbh, but the NDP probably has smarter targets to go for. Spadina-Fort York has a significant "bourgeois left" element that leans more Liberal than NDP.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

With quite a few Liberal ridings and winnable seats still without a candidate, I think Trudeau will hold off on an election call for at least a week.

[King of Kensington]

Vaughan retiring seems to have given a boost of encouragement to the NDP.  Spadina-Fort York is a young riding and Singh polls well among young voters.  Still it's a 36 point gap to close, so it's more about a strong performance than actually winning it.  The NDP is running school trustee Norm Di Pasquale there.

Not sure how much pull school trustees have in an overwhelmingly young riding tbh, but the NDP probably has smarter targets to go for. Spadina-Fort York has a significant "bourgeois left" element that leans more Liberal than NDP.

If I were to rank NDP targets in Toronto Davenport is clearly #1.  Parkdale-High Park and Danforth are next (PHP probably a bit ahead of Danforth now in spite of "tradition").  Then the likelihood of winning gets much lower beyond that.  The "downtown three" would be next (all have voted similarly in general elections since 2015).  Then Beaches-East York a bit below that.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

Vaughan retiring seems to have given a boost of encouragement to the NDP.  Spadina-Fort York is a young riding and Singh polls well among young voters.  Still it's a 36 point gap to close, so it's more about a strong performance than actually winning it.  The NDP is running school trustee Norm Di Pasquale there.

Not sure how much pull school trustees have in an overwhelmingly young riding tbh, but the NDP probably has smarter targets to go for. Spadina-Fort York has a significant "bourgeois left" element that leans more Liberal than NDP.

If I were to rank NDP targets in Toronto Davenport is clearly #1.  Parkdale-High Park and Danforth are next (PHP probably a bit ahead of Danforth now in spite of "tradition").  Then the likelihood of winning gets much lower beyond that.  The "downtown three" would be next (all have voted similarly in general elections since 2015).  Then Beaches-East York a bit below that.

I think this is about right, but beyond those three there aren't any obvious NDP targets in the six. Beaches-East York has Erskine-Smith, who is pretty popular and the kind of grit that otherwise NDP voters could vote for. Uni-Rosedale could also vote NDP theoretically, but not with Freeland as the incumbent. With that in mind, trying to secure the PHP-Davenport-Danforth trifecta is probably the best approach for the NDP, and even then, a difficult task.

[King of Kensington]

Agreed.  In fact Erskine Smith won with the biggest margin of any MP in the history of Beaches-East York.

Danforth, also seems to be a bit "inflated" in importance because of its illustrious NDP history.  Last time the Layton nostalgia had likely faded and it voted more in line with what you'd expect in the era of Justin Trudeau.  The east end is less young and renter-heavy than the west end.

[SnowLabrador]

Canada should not have reopened the border with the US. As an American, I think they should keep us out forever.