Canada General Discussion (2019-)

[mileslunn]

Ipsos has this one: https://www.ipsos.com/en-ca/news-polls/As-Election-Fever-Builds-Liberal-Majority-in-Doubt .  Interesting how close Alberta is, but on other hand Tories seem on high side in BC.   If this played out would be close, but still perhaps a majority, but not a lot of room for error.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

Ipsos has this one: https://www.ipsos.com/en-ca/news-polls/As-Election-Fever-Builds-Liberal-Majority-in-Doubt .  Interesting how close Alberta is, but on other hand Tories seem on high side in BC.   If this played out would be close, but still perhaps a majority, but not a lot of room for error.

Conservatives at the same level of support in BC as Alberta. Federal NDP higher in Alberta than BC with 31%. Yeah, no, the AB/BC regionals looka way off. Ontario and Quebec seem legit though

[DC Al Fine]

https://twitter.com/NatTelegraph/status/1419755882938732544

Sloan's new outfit to-be makes three right wing breakaway parties

[Estrella]

Canadian far-right is as stupid as other countries' far-left, isn't it.

[Estrella]

Have you ever had a pressing feeling that you need to know what all of these parties are on about? No? Never mind. But let's take a look at them anyway, shall we?

Official multiculturalism is based on the idea that there is no unified Canadian society and no distinct Canadian identity to integrate into, and that we are just a collection of ethnic and religious tribes living side by side. But if we want to keep our country united, and ensure social cohesion, we must focus on what unites us as Canadians, not what divides us.

This would be a little more believable if Bernier wasn't a francophone Quebecker and if most of the party's votes didn't come from Western, uhm, regionalists.

Indigenous issues are also very complex. Some communities are prosperous, others much poorer than the Canadian average. Many suffer from acute social problems, including crime, domestic violence, substance abuse and suicide. Many don’t have the basic services that we take for granted such as access to clean water. There are other major issues to address regarding treaty negotiations, housing, property rights on reserves, etc.

It is not possible to address more than a few of these issues in the context of this election platform.

What a lovely way of saying "we don't give a damn".

This isn't about RIGHT or LEFT — this time it's PERSONAL

Useless fact of the day: the origin of the phrase "this time it's personal" is the fourth Jaws movie. 15% on Metacritic isn't the greatest result (to put it mildly), but it's still ten times as much as the Mavericks are going to get.

HARSH REALITY #4: From 2007-2018 The West made 75% of the money for ALL of Canada. The East spent 87% of ALL of Canada’s money.

48% of these numbers have a 92% chance of being bullshıt.

If the Federal Government engages in hostile behaviors (acts in “bad faith”) or attempts to interfere in or obstruct the separation process, we will achieve de facto unilateral secession through a declaration of independence signed by the Premier.

Parizeau called, he wants his delusions back.

We will transition the justice system from a Common Law system to a Civil Law system so that all Albertans will know the standard by which they are judged, and to provide consistent rulings irrespective of the personal beliefs and biases of a judge.

1) what 2) why

Alberta will rightfully become a new Sovereign Constitutional Democracy that recognizes the Supremacy of God and the rule of law with individual freedoms and rights, a shining beacon to the world as the safest, healthiest and most prosperous free country in which to live.

I see that the lesson these people took away from the Gulf states is that to be a successful petrostate, you also need to be a theocracy.

Alberta Will Create “The Constitution of Alberta”

Now that's a little suspicious use of quotes.

The party was founded as a social conservative alternative to Wildrose, which Thorsteinson describes as "middle of the road". The party's website lists parental authority, religious freedom, and the privatization of health care among its priorities.

Not enough lakes of fire, eh?

Kenney is only doing what the Feds sent him here to do. That is take over Alberta from the Wild Rose Party and restore Alberta to what the Feds want. After all, he is a Federalist, so what would you expect from him.

lol

[Geoffrey Howe]

The "Maverick Party" platform reads like a string of tweets from Donald Trump.

[CumbrianLefty]

Canadian far-right is as stupid as other countries' far-left, isn't it.

As stupid as the far-right in lots of countries, tbf. Given that the radical/populist right is at least as prone to splittism as their left wing equivalents (how many offshoots of UKIP have there been in this country!) its maybe slightly surprising it hasn't attracted as much academic attention.

[Hatman 🍁]

I see the Independence Party wants to break free of Canadian spelling rules as well.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

The Sloan Party won't amount to much. We've seen these personal grievance parties before, like the Trillium Party in Ontario and the PPC which was really more about Bernier's narcissism than anything else. In all likelihood he's just doing this to get donations from delusional weirdos and stick it to O'Toole.

Having something of a party apparatus will help Sloan, at most, to split the vote further in his riding by having more money, a better ground game, and a semblance of legitimacy that an independent candidate doesn't usually have. He won't win re-election in H-L&A though, but is likely to screw the CPC out of a riding that likely would have voted CPC if not for Sloan.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

https://www.thestar.com/politics/2021/07/27/trudeau-says-ottawa-withholding-millions-of-dollars-from-nb-over-abortion-access.html

Raising the abortion issue right before an election is never a bad move for the LPC

[mileslunn]

https://www.thestar.com/politics/2021/07/27/trudeau-says-ottawa-withholding-millions-of-dollars-from-nb-over-abortion-access.html

Raising the abortion issue right before an election is never a bad move for the LPC

Absolutely, although it does bring question is this an actual CHA violation or just politics.  Canada Health Act is extremely vague which is one thing I dislike about it so violations are largely subjective on who is in power.  Obviously I am fully for a woman's right to choose.  And agree abortion fearmongering always a great way.

At same time I do wonder why people still think there is a significant risk.  Harper was in power for almost a decade and never touched it so I personally think chances of abortion ever being re-criminalized in Canada is pretty close to zero, which is a good thing.  But yes smart politics.  Its why on CHA, I wish they had the dispute resolution mechanism that Paul Martin proposed a decade and a half ago but never implemented which is three members would independently review violation and make a decision.  One appointed by province, one by feds, and other jointly agreed so takes politics out of enforcement of CHA.  But then again CHA is largely more a political tool

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

https://www.thestar.com/politics/2021/07/27/trudeau-says-ottawa-withholding-millions-of-dollars-from-nb-over-abortion-access.html

Raising the abortion issue right before an election is never a bad move for the LPC

Absolutely, although it does bring question is this an actual CHA violation or just politics.  Canada Health Act is extremely vague which is one thing I dislike about it so violations are largely subjective on who is in power.  Obviously I am fully for a woman's right to choose.  And agree abortion fearmongering always a great way.

At same time I do wonder why people still think there is a significant risk.  Harper was in power for almost a decade and never touched it so I personally think chances of abortion ever being re-criminalized in Canada is pretty close to zero, which is a good thing.  But yes smart politics.  Its why on CHA, I wish they had the dispute resolution mechanism that Paul Martin proposed a decade and a half ago but never implemented which is three members would independently review violation and make a decision.  One appointed by province, one by feds, and other jointly agreed so takes politics out of enforcement of CHA.  But then again CHA is largely more a political tool

A lot of Conservatives are pro-life, even if the party officially is not and Harper didn't touch the issue with a ten foot pole. Therefore, it follows that questions about abortion are directed mostly to the CPC. The more time O'Toole has to spend addressing the issue and pinky promising that he won't undermine abortion rights, the less time he spends trying to present a positive message for the CPC.

[mileslunn]

Mainstreet shows tightening too, but Liberals still slightly ahead https://ipolitics.ca/2021/07/28/conservatives-gain-ground-on-liberals-poll-shows/ .  it is paywalled but seems for whatever reason the big Liberal leads have evaporated.  I do wonder what caused that or could it just be due to summer, low response rate so get greater variability?

Other possibility is a lot of the undecideds were past Conservative voters upset O'Toole wasn't Conservative enough but are coming home as this group hates Trudeau with a passion.

[King of Kensington]

Pierre Poilievre has found his true calling as a lumber salesman

https://twitter.com/PierrePoilievre/status/1418888684343111686

[CumbrianLefty]

Mainstreet shows tightening too, but Liberals still slightly ahead https://ipolitics.ca/2021/07/28/conservatives-gain-ground-on-liberals-poll-shows/ .  it is paywalled but seems for whatever reason the big Liberal leads have evaporated.  I do wonder what caused that or could it just be due to summer, low response rate so get greater variability?

Other possibility is a lot of the undecideds were past Conservative voters upset O'Toole wasn't Conservative enough but are coming home as this group hates Trudeau with a passion.

So maybe the talk (including on here) about the CPC being doomed forever was a tad premature?

Who knew??

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

The Mainstreet poll suggests the tightening race that other pollsters caught is probably a real trend, which is surprising. Trudeau's been running around announcing new childcare programs and commuter rail and the Liberals haven't had any bad news come out about them, you'd think the polling trend would be the opposite. FWIW, the CPC hasn't had bad press recently either. Maybe all this election talk and obvious premature campaigning is turning people against the LPC?

Then again, we're in the middle of summer. The campaign will matter more than any trend we see right now.

[mileslunn]

Could also be a dead cat bounce for Tories.  They were at record lows and even the slight improvement, numbers are still not great, just not as bad. 

[King of Kensington]

Mainstreet numbers aren't catastrophic but not great for the Tories.  They're well ahead in the Prairies but there's little room for gain.  Liberals leading in B.C.  Ontario is interestingly competitive.  In Quebec, Liberals are well ahead of the Bloc.

[Хahar 🤔]

It doesn't seem surprising that Conservative polling would move toward more normal numbers as the thought of an election becomes increasingly real to voters.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

https://ipolitics.ca/2021/07/28/the-demise-of-the-star-candidate-in-canadian-politics/

What do yall think about this? I find it a little hyperbolic because we're really only talking about one election, one which hasn't even been called yet. 2019 saw its fair share of star candidates, including quite a few athletes, activists, artists, academics, and other occupations not starting with "a". If we count local/provincial politicians and former MPs, which I'd argue we should, that list is even bigger. Jack Harris for example wasn't a star candidate in the traditional sense, but he's so personally popular in St John's that I think his candidacy was genuinely what won the NDP that seat. I'd argue the same for Sandra Pupatello, who lost in Windsor West but made it a hell of a lot more competitive than it should have been.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

It doesn't seem surprising that Conservative polling would move toward more normal numbers as the thought of an election becomes increasingly real to voters.

I do wonder, at what point can we consider Trudeau more of a liability for the Liberal Party than an asset? Government approval seems to be holding pretty strong, but the Trudeau brand is toxic to a lot of people. It seems like the Liberals have hit a ceiling at 35%, which is not good for a governing party looking to bag a majority government.

[King of Kensington]

Election Prediction Project is up and running again:

http://electionprediction.org/2021_fed/index.php

[Benjamin Frank]

Mainstreet shows tightening too, but Liberals still slightly ahead https://ipolitics.ca/2021/07/28/conservatives-gain-ground-on-liberals-poll-shows/ .  it is paywalled but seems for whatever reason the big Liberal leads have evaporated.  I do wonder what caused that or could it just be due to summer, low response rate so get greater variability?

Other possibility is a lot of the undecideds were past Conservative voters upset O'Toole wasn't Conservative enough but are coming home as this group hates Trudeau with a passion.

With these polls and with the possible resurgence of Covid, I wonder if there is now a real possibility that there won't be an early fall election.  Who knows, the Liberals may even govern up to the fixed election date.

Jody Wilson Raybould would get her M.P pension and the Liberals would actually have to work on reconciliation.  What a wonderful world that would be.

Oh yeah, and maybe Carolyn Bennett and Harjit Sajjan would be fired from the cabinet.

[MaxQue]

Mainstreet shows tightening too, but Liberals still slightly ahead https://ipolitics.ca/2021/07/28/conservatives-gain-ground-on-liberals-poll-shows/ .  it is paywalled but seems for whatever reason the big Liberal leads have evaporated.  I do wonder what caused that or could it just be due to summer, low response rate so get greater variability?

Other possibility is a lot of the undecideds were past Conservative voters upset O'Toole wasn't Conservative enough but are coming home as this group hates Trudeau with a passion.

With these polls and with the possible resurgence of Covid, I wonder if there is now a real possibility that there won't be an early fall election.  Who knows, the Liberals may even govern up to the fixed election date.

Jody Wilson Raybould would get her M.P pension and the Liberals would actually have to work on reconciliation.  What a wonderful world that would be.

Oh yeah, and maybe Carolyn Bennett and Harjit Sajjan would be fired from the cabinet.

You've got things confused. People shouldn't get pension merely for having overinflated egos and no skills.

[Benjamin Frank]

Mainstreet shows tightening too, but Liberals still slightly ahead https://ipolitics.ca/2021/07/28/conservatives-gain-ground-on-liberals-poll-shows/ .  it is paywalled but seems for whatever reason the big Liberal leads have evaporated.  I do wonder what caused that or could it just be due to summer, low response rate so get greater variability?

Other possibility is a lot of the undecideds were past Conservative voters upset O'Toole wasn't Conservative enough but are coming home as this group hates Trudeau with a passion.

With these polls and with the possible resurgence of Covid, I wonder if there is now a real possibility that there won't be an early fall election.  Who knows, the Liberals may even govern up to the fixed election date.

Jody Wilson Raybould would get her M.P pension and the Liberals would actually have to work on reconciliation.  What a wonderful world that would be.

Oh yeah, and maybe Carolyn Bennett and Harjit Sajjan would be fired from the cabinet.

You've got things confused. People shouldn't get pension merely for having overinflated egos and no skills.

She qualifies for a pension as an M.P if she serves for 6 or more years. I believe that she is not eligible to receive this pension for several more years though until she is 55.