2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: Minnesota

[Gass3268]

Thankfully the Democrats control the Minnesota State Supreme Court. Won't be a gerrymander, but hopefully a favorable map that keeps Minneapolis and St. Paul separate.

[Gass3268]

Here's scenario that I'm not sure has been discussed yet: what if Minnesota keeps their 8th seat? Given all the weirdness with doing the count due to COVID-19, some of the Trump fears with minority responses, and the fact Minnesota's response rate was the best nationwide, I think the possibility is greater than zero.

[Gass3268]

Democrats already trying to get this pushed to state courts.

https://twitter.com/DemRedistrict/status/1386845658280349699

[Gass3268]

Clear GOP gerrymander from the MN Republicans.

https://twitter.com/ActorAaronBooth/status/1466801439183937542?s=20

[Gass3268]

1. "reasonably compact" reminds me of your "fair map" Dane County split. You're not fooling anyone by describing your maps incorrectly (and why are you trying to? This is an internet forum). Call a spade a spade and say that you drew a tendril 4 way-Hennepin split.

This is an obvious pizzamander and isn't compact at all.

No, I know it's not compact on the whole at all. What I meant was, it is comparatively compact using Discovolante's district as a point of reference (shown below). Obviously I can't say any of those 6 seats are really compact at all, but they are most certainly more compact than the map below, and that is what I was talking about (though I can see why it might be confusing/unclear).

(Also, to NC Conservative, regarding the Dane County map - give me the link to the map I called fair, and I will tell you exactly why it is. Don't know which map you're talking about until you do, though, because I believe I've shared multiple maps here with Dane County separated.)

With that said, below is the map I was comparing mine to, and that's why I said it was (comparatively) compact:

Why is it so hard to draw 5 democratic CDs in a biden +8 state. The Nevada democrats did it in a biden +2 state

look on my works, ye mighty, and despair



(this still votes right of the state at large and trends are awful outside of Rochester so this would probably be fairly comfortably GOP-held in practice)

2. Use DRA. No one wants to use a clunkier site that lacks recent data.

I don't care for DRA's layout and much prefer that of Districtr's, even if it lacks a lot of information DRA has. Appreciate the advice/command but at least for the moment, I don't intend to switch to DRA.

No map that splits Dane County is fair. Even if you're aiming for proportionality, it is too clear of a community of interest for a split of it to be anything other than an egregious gerrymander.

Again - which map are you discussing? You give me the link of the so-called gerrymander, and I'll give you an explanation as to why splitting Dane County is justified.

No map that splits Dane County is fair. Pick any map as you like -- no map that splits Dane is fair.

I could maybe see some sort of argument if a split of one of the counties in the area was necessary for population equality, but yeah, there's basically zero region to do a split that goes deeper than one or two towns. Cracking Dane County to counteract Democratic packing is a scandalous gerrymander.

I wouldn't call it scandalous as long as it doesn't go into the inner ring

 

Green is probably what would be Madison city limits if it annexed atleast the most inner ring areas.
Say some split like this



It doesn't really make too much sense as it would just make more sense to lop of the furthest end  of Green county so it still is a Dem Favorable map but it isn't really egregious. Splitting the clearly urbanized inner part of Dane is unacceptable as that is such a clear COI. The areas split of Western Dane are obviously more related to Madison than the southern parts of Green but the line is a bit more blurred than splitting Madison in 2 as that's really the only way to get any split of the core Madison area. Obviously most splits of Dane when done for partisan fairness are clearly the latter than just merely the former..

Why did you cut my hometown in half?

[Gass3268]

Basically least change. Glad MN-02 is slightly bluer and MN-06 seems like it could become competitive eventually

It's really just Carver that's a big problem for R's in that district. The rest of the district is lower education than the rest of Minneapolis suburbia.

For now…
It’d probably take quite a lot and still unlikely to flip this decade but I guarantee you gentrification is coming, especially since the eastern suburbs are already more developed.

Anoka has been pretty damn stagnant for 20 years, Carver has moved left a lot but St. Clouds and Wright have moved right. There just isn't enough potential leftward trending areas for this district to become competitive at the presidential level.

St Cloud is definitely moving left, the Dems flipped the senate seat there just in 2020, Biden definitely improved there from Clinton too.   Carver is moving left too, the rest of the district is just kinda meh, not moving significantly either way.

Doesn't help that the most Democrat parts of Anoka are in the 4th and the 5th.