UK General Election - May 7th 2015 (The Official Election Day & Results Thread)

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Well the critical element (or rather a critical element) was the fear factor which was rather more of an issue than I'd hoped.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Trouble with tiny majorities is that they can fall to tiny swings. Oh well.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

CON gain Derby North.  Is this a big surprise?

No, the majority was small and it was won on a low share of the vote in 2010.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

If you think about the Lib Dems and the Tories as one homogeneous bloc, they technically did 'lose' seats. While that is an incredibly terrible way to think about British politics, it seems that at least in some sense, there's some rebuff to the current government?

It isn't unreasonable to suggest that the LibDems functioned as a lightening rod and/or human shield for the Tories in the last parliament.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Labour hold Halifax. lmao.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Where now for UKIP I wonder?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

A bunch of distant second (and third) places doesn't usually entail sweeping electoral success in the relatively near future.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

It would be useful, I think, if whoever eventually replaces Murphy is not someone who comes across as a sweaty salesman whenever placed under pressure; whatever other issues there 'may' be, I don't think that helped much.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Is this the most dissapointing/crushing election night in the history of the Labour Party?

Well, no. If we're just talking postwar defeats, cases can be made for 1951, 1959, 1970, 1979, 1987 and 1992. The wins in 1950 and in October 1974 was also very disappointing as Labour had reasonable expectations of clear majorities.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I would have thought that the addition of the SNP factor/total wipeout in Scotland, combined with a thoroughly unexpected Conservative majority,  might have made this one even worse - even though there, of course, have been other  surprising defeats to the Tories as well.

Everyone had mentally adjusted to 'Scottish Labour is going to lose everything' though.

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The scale of the defeats was not expected and was (particularly in 1987) really galling.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Is this the first time there have been no Liberal or Lib Dem seats in the South-West of England since the 1950s?

Yes

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Yes, there are no blocs (even unofficially) in British elections.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Second places are basically entirely irrelevant.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The result in Hereford (LibDem MP 1997-2010 and a longtime target and local government base beforehand) is quite something... Con 52.6, UKIP 16.8, Labour 12.8, LDem 10.6, Green 7.2

That's minus 30.5 for the LibDems.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Good list. Conventionally by-election recaptures are not classed as gains, fwiw.

Anyway, some maps tomorrow I guess...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

We can be sure that a substantial number of people who voted LibDem in 2010 voted UKIP in 2015, particularly in rural and old industrial areas.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Results by percentage majority in London.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Here's a fun detail: Labour up 9.5 (to 22. in North West Norfolk. People who can remember the last election will know the explanation for this.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

[Filuwaúrdjan]

It appears Cameron actually implemented Netanyahu campaign strategy applied to Scotland and well it worked.

Indeed...

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Not entirely sure, but surely in practice it would be a yes. I do know that 10% of the parliamentary party must nominate a candidate before they can get onto the ballot: which, this time, means self-nomination, lol.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Fair enough, but with respect to the UKIP voters up there who were formerly Labour voters, does that not indicate some estrangement with the party, an estrangement that will not be easy to assuage?

That doesn't mean that they're about to vote bloody Tory.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I know these places and you don't and you haven't got a fycking clue what you're talking about.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

West Midlands

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The West Country, aka why the Tories now have a majority.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Note that the yellow in Orkney and Shetland is LibDem. All non SNP seats and SNP seats with sub-10 majorities voted very heavily No last year.

Anyway, what's so striking is how level the majorities are.