Is Mississippi the Most Inelastic state and what direction is MS moving towards?

[AN63093]

The answer to the first question is easy- "yes" or if not yes outright, certainly among the most.  The South (and in particular, the Deep South), is the most inelastic region in the country, with FL as the only exception.  If it's not MS, then maybe AL?  But we're splitting hairs at that point.

The second question is also relatively easy- trending D long-term and it's pretty obvious.  NC Yankee has the correct analysis here, although one quibble- 2028 (even with an Obama type) seems optimistic. 

TTimmy, I don't think the brain drain issue (let's assume it continues) will have much an effect.  White millennials leaving will just be overwhelmed by White seniors dying off (of which there are more by the way), and the net effect is at best, zero.  Even if migration out is particularly severe (which is not unrealistic, MS is almost last in growth nation-wide, at 0.6%, and had a -4% growth of millennials over the past decade), I think that maybe just delays the inevitable by a decade or so.  Although you do have a point, and it's one reason why I think 2028 is a little too soon.

The only thing that will keep MS from flipping D eventually is if the black vote dramatically changes, and I don't think just a little depolarization would do it TTimmy.  Basically the black vote would have to essentially flip parties and start voting R... and while I won't say it will never happen, it's the sorta thing that would require a significant and unpredictable national black-swan type event.

By the 2030s or 40s, some less sophisticated political analysts will be scratching their heads and saying.. well gee, how in the world did MS ever flip.  When really, it was always pretty obvious.  The same thing will be said for ME (the counter-part to MS, in some ways, right up to the anemic growth), when in a few decades it is likely to be one of the most Republican states in the country.  ME will flip way before MS though, in fact, it's already happening as we speak.

[AN63093]

ME is one of only two states in the country where millennials are actually more Republican than old people, the state ranks near last in the country in growth, is one of the least densely populated, is mostly rural and is the whitest state in the country at near 95%.  It also trended and swung R in '16 (it had one of the largest R trends in the country in '16) and the GOP already flipped one EV.

You want to tell me what trends favor the Dems here, I'm all ears.

[AN63093]

Ah, OK.  Fair.  Apologies for assuming you were making a different point and being a little snarky.

Admittedly, part of what I'm saying is speculative, but I think it's grounded in a couple of key facts.  The most important being that ME millennials are more R-leaning than the seniors.  This is quite unusual, in fact, almost nowhere else in the country do you see this, even places like WY and ND.  So what happens when some millennials become more conservative when they age?  Well, in a place like CO where millennials are upwards of D+60, maybe nothing, or very subtle effects.  But in ME, when your baseline average millennial is actually more Republican than a baby boomer?  The dam could burst wide open.

I think it's not fully manifesting itself yet because ME is severely skewed in age- seniors don't quite outnumber millennials 2:1, but it's up there.  We're talking FL numbers, not CA.  Your point is taken with regards to ME-1, but at some point it will just be overwhelmed.  Maybe not in 2020,  but it will happen unless something changes.  Consider that every county but one trended R in ME, even in ME-1, and even Cumberland still swung R.  Growth in ME is also truly abysmal, it's less than 1%, and the only thing keeping it from being down at WV or IL levels is some modest growth in the Portland area.  So I simply don't see where the Dems are going to get the votes in a couple decades.

I could certainly be wrong, no doubt about it, but that's how I see it right now.