Joe Biden 2020 campaign megathread v3 (pg 45 - mass-dropout aftermath)

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Say what you want about his policies, but the Biden campaign has hired some damn good people for these ads.

He has made some good ads. And maybe he does have some decent organization and staff. It's what I'm hoping for if he gets nominated.

His staff really needs to keep him on a teleprompter during public events and get as many surrogates (the Obamas especially) out there campaigning for and with him as much as possible in the right states at both the presidential and down-ballot levels.

This is an abnormally optimistic post for a pessimist. 

Biden’s “decent” organization has had implored him to use a teleprompter since his campaign kicked off in May, and he’s repeatedly made gaffes or gone off script. 

Is it optimistic? I'm acknowledging that if left to his own devices Biden could doom himself in a general election campaign.

Fair enough.  In my mind, I feel like Democrats should be absolutely horrified over a Biden nomination given the high stakes often expressed.  Groping young women cause he's a touchy weirdo is one thing, but I'd be losing my mind if a candidate had expressed loving when kids sat on his lap and rubbed his leg.  If people want to know what would have caused many Trump's supporters not to vote for him, now you have your answer.  The astonishing lack of curiosity about that statement in the mainstream might win him the primary, but do you really want that playing on televisions during the general? 

The shoulder-rubbing and pool kid comment will become gospel among Trumpsters, just like the bs about Hillary's health, her emails, or Bill's misconduct. It might hurt him among some voters, but I doubt it will be decisive or significant as a factor.

Biden has one clear-cut, iron-clad defense against any anxieties about his creepiness: Not a single human being on Earth has ever alleged Biden has committed any sort of sexual misconduct of any kind, whatsoever.
I am willing to bet that that will stay the case. Unlike Trump, who has literally dozens of sexual misconduct allegations against him, some originating before he ever entered politics. Plus, Access Hollywood. Trump loses in a battle over creepiness any day, against almost anyone.

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The shoulder-rubbing and pool kid comment will become gospel among Trumpsters, just like the bs about Hillary's health, her emails, or Bill's misconduct. It might hurt him among some voters, but I doubt it will be decisive or significant as a factor.

Biden has one clear-cut, iron-clad defense against any anxieties about his creepiness: Not a single human being on Earth has ever alleged Biden has committed any sort of sexual misconduct of any kind, whatsoever.
I am willing to bet that that will stay the case. Unlike Trump, who has literally dozens of sexual misconduct allegations against him, some originating before he ever entered politics. Plus, Access Hollywood. Trump loses in a battle over creepiness any day, against almost anyone.

Nobody needs to accuse Biden of anything, because he admitted it on stage.  I'm not even saying I think he did anything.  I don't.  I think he's becoming easy prey for Trump.

He didn't admit anything. He said he was swimming at a pool when he was a teenager, and a child would play with his leg hairs. Then he said that he likes it when kids sit on his lap. I think this is weird and uncomfortable, however the interpretation that gives him the benefit of the doubt (considering nobody has ever accused him of sexual misconduct) is that this is no different from a guy who works as a Mall Santa saying that he likes it when the kids sit on his lap to ask him for presents. If you wanna be fair, you have to admit that it's not automatically pedophilic to show a platonic affection for children or enjoying their company.

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The economy will be a winning issue for Trump. This suggests that maybe Biden’s message of “return to normalcy” will be more effective than Warren and Sanders’ messages of economic inequality. If voters feel as comfortable as they do with their economic well-being on Election Day as they do today, they may not want to vote for rocking the boat. Meanwhile, if they dislike Trump on Election Day as much as they do today, they may vote him out regardless.

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https://www.politico.com/news/2019/12/11/biden-single-term-082129

Biden signals to aides that he would serve only a single term

Not according to his Deputy Campaign Manager. It would be an unwise move, even if by mid 2023 he decides to not to run again, should be get elected in 2020.

https://twitter.com/KBeds/status/1204793252337065984

I mean, if Malaysia elected a 90-yo Prime Minister, I guess we could have an 80-yo President? Biden would be 86 at the end of a hypothetical second term. That would be older than I any serving non-dictator/royal world leader I could find, even in history (surely there's someone older).

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https://www.politico.com/news/2019/12/11/biden-single-term-082129

Biden signals to aides that he would serve only a single term

Not according to his Deputy Campaign Manager. It would be an unwise move, even if by mid 2023 he decides to not to run again, should be get elected in 2020.

https://twitter.com/KBeds/status/1204793252337065984

I mean, if Malaysia elected a 90-yo Prime Minister, I guess we could have an 80-yo President? Biden would be 86 at the end of a hypothetical second term. That would be older than I any serving non-dictator/royal world leader I could find, even in history (surely there's someone older).

Besides the PM of Malaysia, Tunisia had a President elected in a free election at age 88 who died recently at 92.

Right! I forgot about Essebi.

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Deeply moving clip. Really.

https://twitter.com/JoeBiden/status/1206378407866454016

“Moved” by Joe Biden...

Really disturbing stuff, folks!

Elaborate...

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Biden is seen as an antidote to the biggest problem in our country: Trump. No reason he needs to run for a second term; frankly, it matters little what he does during 4 years cuz it’ll be boiled-plate Democratic policies.

I’ve never seen a nominee for President chosen solely because of his perceived electability; even Romney was considered as a mainstream conservative option.

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I always believed that Democrats would try to nominate the antithesis of Donald Trump. And additionally, there's a historical pattern of electing Presidents stylistically-opposite of their predecessors (Carter>Reagan, Bush>Clinton, Bush>Obama, Obama>Trump).

Biden would fit this pattern perfectly; aside from his demographics, he couldn't be more opposite than Trump in temperament, style, beliefs, and personality.

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Honestly, she seemed like right-wing plant when she said "burdened down by the impeachment trial". That aside, it seemed like he was just being silly more than anything else after listening to the tone of how he said it. I was expecting something different reading the tweet, but that tone made a lot of different.

I saw someone on Twitter say that she is a Yang supporter. Which is ironic, cuz she asked Biden how we could trust that he would win. Yang meanwhile is a gimmick who has less than 0% chance of winning.

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No nominee since the McGovern-Fraser Commission reforms of 1972 has ever done as poorly as placing 4th and 5th in both of the first two states respectively. Biden needs a miracle.

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Yep.  Biden is over.  Totally incompetent execution.  These are embarrassing results for a campaign that's supposed to be run by some of the best in the biz, and I would never trust a campaign that executes like this to beat Trump.

It's a shame, Biden is a really great guy and would have been a good president.  He has by far the most complete resume and best track record of success in the race, represents a diverse and winning coalition, and holds positions that Democrats can run on and win.  He's been treated like absolute dogsh*t by everyone this campaign, especially the media, and persevered for a year only to implode because the folks running his campaign couldn't drive turnout in Iowa and New Hampshire.

Bloomberg, Buttigieg, and Klobuchar are all good choices for the nominee, in that order IMO.  I'm on board Bloomberg 2020 at this point.

This almost nails my thoughts as well.

Starts looking like Joe Biden is done or close to it. I didn't expect him to win Iowa and New Hampshire to begin with, but these results are beyond embarrassing for a former vice president, who served two terms under an incredibly popular president, until just three years ago. Maybe it's just about time to accept defeat. I thought he ran great ads, but it seems his groundgame an utter disaster and his performance on the trail underwhelming. Certainly not as good as 2008 and 2012. It's really sad, because he would be a spectular president who can get things done and restore international relations. Aside from the fact that he's a fine person with the right moral compass to be head of state. It's too sad, Uncle Joe, but I will always be a big fan of yours. Th best vice president in history.
 
As things now stand, I'll be rooting for Mike Bloomberg. He's not just extremely qualified for the job, he's the kind of pragmatic problem solver that is needed to fix things after Trump. He also runs a strong campaign operation and, to be honest, makes a more vital impression than Joe Biden. Mayor Pete is also someone who I like a lot, but I doubt he's getting nomination due to a lack of minority support. He'd be a great cabinet member.

Bloomberg can't win the nomination (despite trying to bribe his way to victory). Unite around the most electable and plausible center left alternative, Mayor Pete Buttigieg.

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Biden needs a top-two finish. If he's behind Steyer, then Steyer could knock off enough black support in SC to set up Bloomberg for a Super Tuesday coup.

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Return to this prediction in May to see if I'm correct:

Biden will get 2nd or 3rd in NV, rebound to strongly win SC, win the South while losing elsewhere to Sanders on Super Tuesday, Sanders builds a small delegate lead that never goes away and puts away the nomination after winning New York in April (Biden-Sanders duel from March-May).

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Return to this prediction in May to see if I'm correct:

Biden will get 2nd or 3rd in NV, rebound to strongly win SC, win the South while losing elsewhere to Sanders on Super Tuesday, Sanders builds a small delegate lead that never goes away and puts away the nomination after winning New York in April (Biden-Sanders duel from March-May).

And Bloomberg?

A non-factor after Biden rebounds from South Carolina. I'm pretty convinced that voters will be persuaded to stick with the Vice President who just won a state over someone who hasn't been on the ballot yet. But I could be wrong, even laughably so; who knows!

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Damning article on Biden today in Slate. I can't disagree with their analysis though. The establishment hitched its cart to the wrong horse this time around.

This is what pisses me off about him. He kept a lot of good people from surging or running altogether and now he’s not even going to close the deal. It’s infuriating.

I still blame Democratic Primary voters more. Their prioritization of familiarity and name recognition over anything else compelled Biden to run when he polled at the top of preliminary polls. I can't blame him or Sanders for running if they see results like that.

Otherwise I agree with you though, I was always dreading a Biden versus Sanders primary. We had some new, fresh-faced talent running this time that never really got a fair chance.

Another point is that Trump would have faced a nominee 14-23 years younger than him if he were being opposed by anyone of Klobuchar, Harris, Gillibrand, or Booker. That would have provided a sort of generational contrast, and a younger nominee, particularly someone like Booker, would have been able to better make the case to key elements of the Democratic coalition-particularly younger, minority, and female voters-and to infrequent voters. But instead, Trump will be facing a nominee older than himself-whether it be Sanders, Biden, or Bloomberg. Sanders will still be able to energize turnout and rally the base, obviously, but Biden and Bloomberg clearly do not have that ability. And by facing an older nominee, Trump's ability to outcampaign them is enhanced.

Putting Biden in a debate with Trump would be a disaster for the Democrats. Say what you will about Trump, but he's extremely energetic when you get him in front of a camera. That's why, despite being six years his senior, Trump was able to call Jeb Bush "low-energy" in 2016. He is an experienced showman and he knows how to handle a crowd. I cannot imagine Biden and his stumbling, slurred speech pattern keeping up with Trump in any capacity. He would look like a complete geezer next to him.

I certainly agree. It's obvious to me that Trump would outcampaign him and would also outflank him on the debate stage. In fact, it's hard for me to see any of the Democratic candidates being able to outmaneuver Trump. Sanders comes across as an "angry old man", and Trump would know how to get him riled up and sputtering things. Warren is easily provoked, and her calm intellectual demeanor would be at the breaking point the moment Trump called her "Pocahontas." Klobuchar would be shaking with anger as soon as he savaged her, and Buttigieg wouldn't be able to "out-interrupt" Trump, and would have nothing but platitudes to counter him. And Trump would absolutely destroy Bloomberg. Thus, no matter who the nominee is, the debates are unlikely to make that much of a difference.

On the upside for Democrats, we learned in 2016 that the debates don't really matter as much as we think (polling showed Clinton "won" most viewers).

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Remember a week ago when Atlas pronounced Biden’s campaign dead? Lmao