Election 2018 Open Thread - Part 1

[Zaybay]

I hope both win, but I will say, Donelly is more likely to win than McGrath.

[Zaybay]

My god, dont do this

[Zaybay]

Seems like Donnelly is preforming worse in rural areas and better in suburban areas

[Zaybay]

Certainly a whiplash here.

[Zaybay]

Yeah, I would say its to early to call as well

[Zaybay]

5 picks: Florida, Indiana, Missouri, Montana, Arizona and 55-45 majority. Great morning.

MT is projected to go D, and AZ isnt done yet, but yeah, pretty good for you guys.

[Zaybay]

5 picks: Florida, Indiana, Missouri, Montana, Arizona and 55-45 majority. Great morning.

Losing 30+ House seats and getting creamed in the gubernatorial races is great? Be careful not to break your back moving those goalposts.

Huh.  We still have two out, each way.

The House met Democratic expectations, but did not exceed them.  The Senate exceeded Republican expectations.  Three governorships are up in the air (WI, GA, CT).  One flipped with a lot of GOP support.

BTW: My pick was 229 D. 

WI was already called for Evers, so its really 2 up in the air.

[Zaybay]

LOL, 55 seats for the Republicans.

That is ing embarrassing for the Democrats.

Literally embarrassing.

Didn't you create a whole thread insisting that the Republicans would hold the House? And, no, saying "well they didn't win by that much" isn't justification. 

Yeah, I said they’d hold the house and pick up 4 in the Senate.

I was wrong on the house and nailed it exactly on the Senate

Well, no, your off by a guaranteed 1 in the senate, as Tester is likely to win reelection(90% in fact).

[Zaybay]

LOL, 55 seats for the Republicans.

That is ing embarrassing for the Democrats.

Literally embarrassing.

Didn't you create a whole thread insisting that the Republicans would hold the House? And, no, saying "well they didn't win by that much" isn't justification. 

Yeah, I said they’d hold the house and pick up 4 in the Senate.

I was wrong on the house and nailed it exactly on the Senate

Well, no, your off by a guaranteed 1 in the senate, as Tester is likely to win reelection(90% in fact).

Not trying to be rude, but can you read?

Almost all votes in, Tester lost

Perhaps you should see where these voters are, and what the margin is. Ill wait for the votes to be counted there before making a declaration like that.

[Zaybay]

This is when they stopped counting MT and why Tester is likely gonna win:
https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1060120486095536129

[Zaybay]

Beto O'Rourke and Stacey Abrams got more votes than Hillary Clinton did in 2016 in those states. That's insane.

I didn't think Democrats winning Texas in a Presidential election could happen before 2024 at the absolute earliest (and was always really bearish on Clinton's chances in Texas, e.g., and on O'Rourke), but based on these results, with Presidential-year Latino turnout and two more years of demographic change, I'd be sweating as a Republican that the Democrats could win Texas in 2020.

I'm going to be #bold and say that Texas, Georgia, and Arizona are more winnable for Dems than Iowa, Ohio and Florida (?) at this point.

You may not be too far off base here.  I don't think Florida and Ohio are winnable anymore for Dems.

Yeah, I would agree, FL is one of the few states that has a solid GOP trend, and OH seems to be retaining its R status in 2016. But GA, AZ, and TX are moving rather slowly, still. Perhaps these states will be more D in a presidential year, but, well, we have to wait for 2020 for that.

[Zaybay]

Per CNN: BillNelson officially requesting a recount in his race against Rick Scott.

I thought he conceded? This race is so confusing.
Please let Nelson somehow pull it off...

[Zaybay]

So, uh.

WV-02 ended up being closer than WV-03.

Even in West Virginia we saw the urban-suburban/rural divide. Manchin won all of the counties with decent sized cities in them (Kanawha, Cabell, Monongalia, Ohio, Marion) plus the DC suburban county (Jefferson), while losing many places in traditional Democratic coal country. This bled down ballot.

Yep, its official, the D suburban and R rural trend is completely real, and is continuing. TBH, I wouldnt be surprised if in the 2020 guber race, the D wins while losing the 3rd.

[Zaybay]

Confirmed that there are 472K votes left to be counted in Maricopa county.

How are the remaining ballots looking for Sinema? Is Maricopa a good county for her?

It is literally the swing county of AZ, but the good news is that the absentees are usually much more D, just depends on how much.

[Zaybay]

So if Tester wins(looking more and more likely) and Sinema pulls it out with all the ballots left, than a Dem +36 in the House and a Rep +2 in the Senate would be a pretty decent night for democrats all things considered.

Those are some massive IF’s

Not for MT, mostly for Sinema, but the ballot locations are promising.

[Zaybay]

Good news for y'all looking at ME-02. The Ranked Choice vote is likely to go to Golden, polling has shown. If Golden is able to tie, then the 2nd vote should give it to himhopefully.

[Zaybay]

I think you guys are overblowing it on the SC getting rid of Ranked Choice. Many on the Supreme Court have affirmed State Rights with elections, and they have never overturned an election system(as far as I know).

[Zaybay]

When will they start counting the AZ ballots?

[Zaybay]

I think you guys are overblowing it on the SC getting rid of Ranked Choice. Many on the Supreme Court have affirmed State Rights with elections, and they have never overturned an election system(as far as I know).

Such a case would presumably be making the same argument that was made in the Arizona Redistricting Commission case in 2015.  That was a 5-4 decision with Kennedy siding with the Liberals to affirm the voter initiative creating the commission.  And Kennedy isn't on the Court anymore...

Roberts specifically hates to overturn decisions made by his court.

[Zaybay]

CNN now has Tester up 5k votes, 49.1% - 48.0%

Well, that leaves 2 seats in the senate to be decided, FL, and AZ.

[Zaybay]

CNN now has Tester up 5k votes, 49.1% - 48.0%

Well, that leaves 2 seats in the senate to be decided, FL, and AZ.

Technically Mississippi too.

Unless the D strength suddenly reappears, I doubt we get that one.

[Zaybay]

Somehow it's still possible that we'll end up with no net chance in the Senate.  Not likely, but still possible!

Well, no, its impossible to get a net change of 0 in the senate. The best Ds can do is R+1 at this point, if they win FL and AZ.

[Zaybay]

What happened to Strong Candidate Jeff Van Drew

Turns out moderate candidates may not do better than Progressive ones, and vice versa, appeal is what matters, and Van Drew was on autopilot the entire election.

[Zaybay]

Tester might pull it out, thank god.

If only Sinema didn’t choke.

+2 R’s wouldn’t be THAT bad.

If Florida had done it’s job then it would have been +1 which would be even better.

But like 2016, so close but so far

Seriously man, stop it. MT was already called, its a D hold. AZ has 1/4 the ballots not in the totals. FL is going to be really close.

Stop calling races before all the ballots are tallied.

[Zaybay]

Its possible all the Ds pull it out through the last ballots, though Gil and Porter arent looking so well. I guess, we just have to wait and see....