Election 2018 Open Thread - Part 1

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Dems win both. I'm pumped. This is what the past two years of my life have all amounted to!!!!!!!!

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Dems are going to get pummelled tonight, I'm thinking they actually suffer a net loss in the House at this point.

How neurotic are people on this forum?

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Four minutes out from FL/GA!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

I'm getting pretty buzzed now. Going to grab a cat!

Great idea! I'm going to grab mine, too!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

I don't get what's going on in KY-6.  Washington Post has McGrath up 6% with 41% reporting, but 538 has Barr as a 92% favorite.

NYT is up on McGrath too, but I can't get the precincts to load. Perhaps that indicates something?

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Moral of the story: the Democratic base is the metropolitan elite.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Moral of the story: the Democratic base is the metropolitan elite.

Ah yes. Minorities, young people, and immigrants.

I mean that in a tounge-in cheek way, but it's interesting to see where we've won the most: South Florida, New Jersey, metro Minneapolis, Dallas, Houston, Philadelphia, Virginia, etc.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

California update:

1. DeLeon is doing ridiculously well. We'll see what happens as the remaining 70% comes in.

2. Jeff Denham is probably going to lose. Stanislaus County, which is supporting him, is almost completely done counting, whereas bluer San Joaquin is only just coming in.

3. Katie Hill vs Steve Knight is still a complete tossup.

4. Young Kim looks good, but it'll depend on what bits of Orange County are still outstanding.

5. Mimi Waters also look good, but it could absolutely go either way.

6. Levin and Rouda both look on track to win.

7. Duncan Hunter (blech) also looks safe.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Is Katie Porter too far behind?

No, but I think she and Cicernos are more likely than not to lose. Feeling good about the other four CA Dems, though.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

With Tester's survival, Dem House pickups in CA, WA, UT, and AZ, Wacky Jacky's defeat of UTDH, Nevada's having a Dem trifecta (not to mention a unanimous hold on the row offices!) and a nearly unanimous congressional delegation, and the very likely possibility of a Senator Sinema, I'd HATE to be a Republican west of the Great Plains right now.

Cory Gardner is very afraid right now.

If they call it for Sinema, Gardner should announce his retirement immediately.  If Arizona of all places elects a Dem to the Senate, Gardner is more DOA than Doug Jones.

I mean, you can't sugarcoat it.  Republicans got absolutely massacred in the West last night.  Herrera-Buetler and Hunter were the GOP's only bright spots.  Possibly one of Young Kim or Mimi Walters too, but that's about it.

As a map nerd, I'm still annoyed about this one. I thought with Clark County turnout, it would go blue, thus delivering the Dems every Pacific-adjacent West Coast seat.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

YES!

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

I want to know where in Maricopa the ballots have/will come from. Though I very much doubt it'll swing GOP.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

If Sinema wins this thing, Dems need to contest AZ for real in 2020.

Rep. Ruben Gallego has been rumored to be the favored candidate among Democrats.

He's a weak candidate. Try Greg Stanton or Mark Kelly.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

https://twitter.com/troykinsey/status/1060688002442293249?s=21

Dang, that's a huge discrepancy between Gillum and Nelson.  A couple months ago, we thought that Gillum would have been Nelson's political savior.

I wonder if geography matters. Given this, South Florida>Central Florida>North Florida for Democrats winning statewide.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

It's amazing that Dems have done better in NV/AZ/TX than MO/IN/ND. I'm not surprised, but it's fun to see real demographic destiny come true.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Huh, it seems that "weak candidate" Cisneros will probably defeat "rising star" Kim.

Hopefully. That would be very good. I was thinking Ciseneros probably couldn't pull it off because Kim's lead initially was the biggest of the competitive districts, but given the size of the gains Oryxslayer posted, it looks like Cisneros can actually do it.

Anyone know about CA-10? That one only had a narrow lead for Rs at the end of election night, so you would think Josh Harder can get enough to knock off Denham.

I think Josh Harder is absolutely more likely to win than Denham. It's close, and the rest of the ballots favor Harder. That said, I haven't paid as close attention there as in the Southern California districts.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Why on earth didn't Garcia come close to defeating Ducey?

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Why on earth didn't Garcia come close to defeating Ducey?

$ was a major factor. Ducey nuked him early and he never had a chance to get going.

But the margins!

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Why does it take Arizona and California so long to count their votes?  I can understand why some mail ballots don't arrive until after the election, but for the most part that doesn't seem to be the case here.
If the ballots are already in, why don't they just count them on election night like everyone else?

You can only verify and count so many thousands of ballots a day

Don't other states count millions on election night?  Oregon has entirely mail-in voting, and it seems like they are always counted almost immediately.  Same more or less with Colorado.

I *think* Oregon started counting as ballots come in, before election night.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

More news from CA: Tony Thurmond is only behind Marshall Tuck by about 13,000 votes.

Have late ballots been breaking towards Thurmond?

I don’t have exact numbers, but it has been getting tighter. I’d lean yes to your question.

Unfortunately yes.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Tony Thurmond is up to 50.4% against Marshall Tuck’s 49.6% in CA-Superintendent.

Edit: Betty Yee is at 64.3% for controller now. Dang

That's dissapointing.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Tony Thurmond is up to 50.4% against Marshall Tuck’s 49.6% in CA-Superintendent.

Edit: Betty Yee is at 64.3% for controller now. Dang

That's dissapointing.

Would much rather have an educator in charge of the state's public school than a literal charter school goon like Tuck.

Thurmond is more of the same. Bad educations, no reform (and a Northern Californian.) Tuck did phenomenal work improving LA's schools, and has the managerial talent needed for the job. Besides, charter schools are great, and they should be encouraged. The more the merrier.