Election 2018 Open Thread - Part 1

[libertpaulian]

The Navajo batch from today scared me a bit they countered the trend we've been seeing of McSally doing worse with ballots later on. The ones out of that county have been trending more favorable to her by a huge margin. Yea its only one county but it shows such a abnormal trend is possible elsewhere.

Navajo has a high Mormon population, yet McSally is only up by mid-single digits.

[henster]

The Navajo batch from today scared me a bit they countered the trend we've been seeing of McSally doing worse with ballots later on. The ones out of that county have been trending more favorable to her by a huge margin. Yea its only one county but it shows such a abnormal trend is possible elsewhere.

Navajo has a high Mormon population, yet McSally is only up by mid-single digits.

Yea I know but those ballots counted today out of Navajo were likely from election day as they were the last one counted and they trended heavy R. Maricopa election day vote was supposedly heavy R too so she could conceivably get the same overperformance there.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Gimme dem Maricopa digits!

[Tintrlvr]

The Navajo batch from today scared me a bit they countered the trend we've been seeing of McSally doing worse with ballots later on. The ones out of that county have been trending more favorable to her by a huge margin. Yea its only one county but it shows such a abnormal trend is possible elsewhere.

Navajo County is weird because nearly everyone who lives there is either a Mormon Republican or a Native American Democrat. So oddities with Mormon or Native voting patterns (e.g., Natives don’t vote by mail because they’re less likely to have a mailing address) will show up there but are irrelevant elsewhere (except in Apache County, which has the same dynamic but more Natives and fewer Mormons).

[pppolitics]

The Navajo batch from today scared me a bit they countered the trend we've been seeing of McSally doing worse with ballots later on. The ones out of that county have been trending more favorable to her by a huge margin. Yea its only one county but it shows such a abnormal trend is possible elsewhere.

Navajo has a high Mormon population, yet McSally is only up by mid-single digits.

Yea I know but those ballots counted today out of Navajo were likely from election day as they were the last one counted and they trended heavy R. Maricopa election day vote was supposedly heavy R too so she could conceivably get the same overperformance there.

It has already been discussed to dead.

https://twitter.com/VaughnHillyard/status/1060251726467469312

[henster]

The Navajo batch from today scared me a bit they countered the trend we've been seeing of McSally doing worse with ballots later on. The ones out of that county have been trending more favorable to her by a huge margin. Yea its only one county but it shows such a abnormal trend is possible elsewhere.

Navajo has a high Mormon population, yet McSally is only up by mid-single digits.

Yea I know but those ballots counted today out of Navajo were likely from election day as they were the last one counted and they trended heavy R. Maricopa election day vote was supposedly heavy R too so she could conceivably get the same overperformance there.

It has already been discussed to dead.

https://twitter.com/VaughnHillyard/status/1060251726467469312

So theoretically would R+10 or R+12 be enough for Sinema to lose at this point?

[Sestak]

The real race in AZ is SoS now.

[Gass3268]

This was from last night, but it essentially remains the same:

https://twitter.com/treyterry/status/1061054243413483520

McSally needs to win the rest of the Maricopa County vote by 11% (probably a bit more now with what came and what is left from Pima). So far, she's only winning the ED voters in Maricopa County by 5.2%.

[Gass3268]

Here we go!

https://twitter.com/Garrett_Archer/status/1061406737633181696

[pppolitics]

https://twitter.com/Garrett_Archer/status/1061406737633181696

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

TBF, they might have been a more conservative generation had Clinton been election. Trump is going to do to Zers what Bush did to Millennials.

One of the few things to ease my worries under Trump is thinking about the catastrophe that would have awaited us had Clinton won. Given what we saw on Tuesday, it's fair to say that Republicans would have a real good shot at a filibuster proof majority, and even bigger House majority, absurdly dominant power at the state level right before redistricting (again), and they'd most likely win the White House in 2020 anyway. That would basically be 2009-level of power for Republicans for at least 2 years, and a Senate majority that might last decade(s).

Whatever one thinks about Trump, we really did dodge a bullet there.

The question becomes is all that worth a Supreme Court Majority. I'm assuming a Clinton win would also come with a small Democratic majority in the Senate (flipping MO, PA and WI).

Republicans would never have given a hearing to anyone Clinton had nominated anyway. Also, with things going the way they have gone, support for court packing has steadily risen (and will rise further if Trump ends up replacing Ginsburg or anything like that, and will rise with each of the many unpopular decisions the partisan GOP SCOTUS may make).

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

I kinda just realized. Ed Case didnt rejoin the Blue Dogs this year(he had the chance to, he never did). Is it possible that he has moved Left? Or is Ed being weird?

Who wants to join a club in which you are the only member?

[Gass3268]

TBF, they might have been a more conservative generation had Clinton been election. Trump is going to do to Zers what Bush did to Millennials.

One of the few things to ease my worries under Trump is thinking about the catastrophe that would have awaited us had Clinton won. Given what we saw on Tuesday, it's fair to say that Republicans would have a real good shot at a filibuster proof majority, and even bigger House majority, absurdly dominant power at the state level right before redistricting (again), and they'd most likely win the White House in 2020 anyway. That would basically be 2009-level of power for Republicans for at least 2 years, and a Senate majority that might last decade(s).

Whatever one thinks about Trump, we really did dodge a bullet there.

The question becomes is all that worth a Supreme Court Majority. I'm assuming a Clinton win would also come with a small Democratic majority in the Senate (flipping MO, PA and WI).

Republicans would never have given a hearing to anyone Clinton had nominated anyway. Also, with things going the way they have gone, support for court packing has steadily risen (and will rise further if Trump ends up replacing Ginsburg or anything like that, and will rise with each of the many unpopular decisions the partisan GOP SCOTUS may make).

That's why I said I would assume a Clinton win would include a Democratic Senate.

[Sestak]

Maricopa time?

[InheritTheWind]

Maricopa just updated, I believe.

Sinema now leads by 38K. SoS race now within a 3.2K margin.

[libertpaulian]

Maricopa time?

Yup!

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Sinema +28,688

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

That's why I said I would assume a Clinton win would include a Democratic Senate.

Ah, sorry.

[Virginiá]

Gaynor's (SoS) lead cut in half, now at 3,120

How many more votes do we have left? Also, wasn't this batch supposed to be more McSally-friendly? If so, does that mean Gaynor could lose even more tomorrow?

[Landslide Lyndon]

I kinda just realized. Ed Case didnt rejoin the Blue Dogs this year(he had the chance to, he never did). Is it possible that he has moved Left? Or is Ed being weird?

Who wants to join a club in which you are the only member?

Actually a handful of new Blue Dogs were elected (Van Drew, Cunningham, Horn).

[ajc0918]

Maricopa on EDay: SINEMA+3
Maricopa latest batch: SINEMA+7

[Sestak]

BREAKING: Rep. Kyrsten Sinema(D) elected Senator from Arizona, defeating Rep. Martha McSally (R), winning the seat for Democrats for the first time since 1988.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

It would be fantastic to pick up AZ SOS. Get that election administration under Dem control for 2020.

[ajc0918]

Gaynor only leading by 3,120. Dems should pick up the SoS as well.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

So like, should Sinema declare victory?