Belarus Revolution Thread

[Ⓐnarchy in the ☭☭☭P!]

Lukashenka sent his thugs to terrorize random citizens and businesses and now entire factories are walking out

https://twitter.com/msvetov/status/1293895146073923588

https://twitter.com/msvetov/status/1293908962970963968

https://twitter.com/msvetov/status/1293892610730467334

Frankly I think this is the end for him unless Putin rolls in the tanks this week, and possibly even if that happens. He had little support to begin and totally alienated a huge portion of those uninvolved with aimless terror.

For Putin this is a far trickier situation than Ukraine was. With the Ukrainians it was easy to divorce Russians and pro-Russian Donbassians from Western Ukrainians with the divisions over language and history, but Belarussians and Russians are far more similar. It's not impossible that Lukashenka falling could inspire more protests in Russia too, though of course Putin has a far higher base of support and understanding of political strategy than Lukashenka ever did.

Of course on the flip side, there's no surer way for Putin to create such protests than to send in the tanks and create a thousand videos and photos of Russian troops abusing Belarussian citizens. Again, since your average Russian can't just categorize Belarussians as fascists Putin's options are much more limited. My guess is that he'll let Lukashenka collapse (because it would take extreme violence to prop up a dictator with sub 20% support) and then find a puppet among the revolutionaries to support in the following power struggle/election.

[Ⓐnarchy in the ☭☭☭P!]

Perhaps he thinks he can just wait things out and eventually people will get tired and go home. As long as the protesters aren't willing to forcibly take over important government buildings or abduct government officials then in theory he could just subsist on under the table money from Putin and eventually the Belarussians will have to go back to work to eat and pay rent. Certainly it's a better strategy than rolling in the tanks, but my guess is that he alienated too many people with mass oppression and torture to get them to simply go home now. If this continues then it seems likely that eventually either some key element of his regime will defect or the protesters will get more bold and he'll regret exposing himself.

[Ⓐnarchy in the ☭☭☭P!]

Lukashenka might have nearly zero popular support but if the protesters aren't willing to depose him then he has no reason to leave. Simply marching around waving flags is a waste of time at this point; if they aren't willing to escalate then they won't get anywhere.

[Ⓐnarchy in the ☭☭☭P!]

In recent news NEXTA claims to have acquired a list of every Belarussian cop and will release it unless Lukashenka resigns.

https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1304455966704971777

This could be a major turning point.