Belarus Revolution Thread

[Mr. Illini]

https://twitter.com/LinkeviciusL/status/1292898802928627712

I agree with others that calling this a revolution is wrong at this point, but what happens from this point will determine whether it is.

I also agree with others saying that it will be harder for the opposition to succeed than it was in the Euromaidan (which, of course, was also hard fought). Putin has already demonstrated that he prioritizes control of Belarus over control of Ukraine.

Another agreement I have - that I am surprised that this is talking place in Belarus. Russia has exercised a degree of control over the country that is almost a parody.

[Mr. Illini]

I agree with others that calling this a revolution is wrong at this point, but what happens from this point will determine whether it is.

I also agree with others saying that it will be harder for the opposition to succeed than it was in the Euromaidan (which, of course, was also hard fought). Putin has already demonstrated that he prioritizes control of Belarus over control of Ukraine.

Another agreement I have - that I am surprised that this is talking place in Belarus. Russia has exercised a degree of control over the country that is almost a parody.

This isn't really about Putin, at least not at this point. As I've said elsewhere, the key factor in the success or failure of these sorts of revolutions is the dictator's relationship with his security apparatus: those who can obtain repression survive, those who can't don't. Russia's prioritization of Belarus is immediately relevant only in that Russia probably has some influence over Belarus' security apparatus.FWIW, Belarus and Russia have been drifting apart recently because Lukashenko is increasingly opposed to being integrated into the Eurasian project, but that has little to do with why this is happening in Belarus now.

The simple reason it is is because Lukashenko's Belarus operates on a classic late-Soviet social contract - acquiescence in exchange for economic security, with a focus on strong welfare support for rural citizens and pensioners. A similar thing is present in Russia and the Central Asian states, but Belarus really is the archetypal post-Soviet example. With the coronavirus and resulting economic catastrophe, Lukashenko failed to provide that security exactly when he needed it for a smooth election - which are always catalysts for activist discontent, even when the election is only symbolic. Civil society activation + popular discontent = spark + sawdust = flareup. This wouldn't have happened had there not been a faux election and it wouldn't have happened if the faux election had been a year ago.

I suppose the reason I mentioned Putin to such a degree is that I find it hard to believe that he will allow a revolution to go down in Belarus without some sort of indirect intervention. Action to either preserve Lukashenko’s position in power, or action after a revolution to install a friendly government. The latter seems a lot more difficult to me.

[Mr. Illini]

Tikhanovskaya left the country as part of a deal to ensure the release of her campaign manager. She recorded two videos asking supporters to stand down - first published by state media - from detention. The Lithuanian President says that “no one in their right mind believes she recorded the videos voluntarily.”

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-537333

She is a brave woman. Solidarity from the United States.

[Mr. Illini]

As I said when this started, Putin will not allow this to be successful. The Navalny poisoning is likely related to this, a signal to any in Russia that may be deriving inspiration to what is going on in Belarus. I would be very surprised if he did not indirectly intervene to stop a revolution. Direct intervention would obviously be a major escalation - I’m not sure if he’d go that far.

I’m praying for the people of Belarus, that they might achieve self-government in the most peaceful way possible.