Scottish Parliament Election, 6th May 2021

[IceAgeComing]

Feels like we are getting closer to this and so a thread is worth creating.  Going to focus on the historic side of things in the OP; then will post about important areas to watch.

Firstly though the voting system explained.  Voters get two votes; one for a local constituency MSP and one for a regional party list.  Scotland is divided up into 73 constituencies (70 on the Scottish mainland plus one seat for the Western Isles, one for Orkney and one for Shetland) and these MSPs are elected in the usual way: you vote for a candidate and the candidate with the most votes wins.  These constituencies are also grouped into eight regions that each get seven MSPs and these are decided through the D'Hondt method using closed party lists.  The main thing that's important though is that these seats are compensatory: so the results in the constituencies are factored in to the regional list results.  This ensures proportionality in the parliament, and also ensures that smaller parties can get representation with an effective threshold of around 6%.

Lots has changed politically since the 2016 election: the UK has gone through three Prime Ministers, the UK (but not Scotland) voted to leave the EU, there have been two General Elections with the first showing the Conservatives going backwards in the UK while advancing in Scotland and the second having the Conservatives win a majority while going backwards in Scotland and of course a global pandemic has transformed, well, everything.  Meanwhile in that gap Scottish politics has somehow (for once!) remained remarkably consistent: the SNP under Nicola Sturgeon has topped the poll in every Scotland-wide election and her position as First Minister appears secure.

Unlike the large shifts between 2011 and 2016 there haven't been major realignments of politics in the last five years; perhaps an indication that the current situation is becoming entrenched.  In the 2016 election the SNP surprisingly lost their parliamentary majority (although a deal with the Greens does give them an overall majority on most issues) after the Conservatives under former leader Ruth Davidson dramatically increased their support; finishing ahead of Labour for the first time in a Scotland-wide election since the 1979 European elections (and before that the 1955 General election) and more than doubling their Scottish Parliament representation.  Labour fell backwards but the PR system allowed them to secure 24 seats on 19.1% of the regional list vote.  The Greens finished ahead of the Liberal Democrats for the first time with six seats and 6.6% of the list vote being their second best performance ever while the Lib Dems, still suffering from a major coalition backlash, were unable to increase their overall position however they managed to gain some constituency seats.

Since then the pattern was the Conservatives significantly improving their position at the expense of the SNP early in the term; however losing all of those gains as the term went on.  The 2017 local elections showed the SNP not making any councillor gains while the Conservatives had their best election performance since the 1995 restructuring, and in the General Election the following month the SNP lost 21 seats and fell to 37% of the vote; with the Conservatives recording 28.6% of the vote and 13 seats - their best performance since the 1983 General Election and gains essential at giving them even a vaguely-stable parliamentary position.  Labour also benefitted from the Corbyn surge during the 2017 campaign, increasing their vote share on their 2015 performance and regaining six seats from the SNP.

Things dramatically changed from there though; with inner-party divisions over Brexit and other issues causing issues for the Scottish Conservatives, who were led by Ruth Davidson; very popular in Scotland and holding moderate, pro-European views that were increasingly incompatible with the UK leadership.   Davidson went on maternity leave in late 2018 and after a brief return to front-line politics after giving birth she made the decision to leave front-line politics, officially to focus on her family but the increasingly nationalistic bent of the wider Tory Party is believed to has contributed.  Additionally, Boris Johnson is not very popular in Scotland and that also has impacted on the views towards the Scottish Conservatives in Scotland.  In the 2019 general election the Tories lost over half their seats falling to only six - still their second best performance since 1992 but a massive step backwards from 2017.  Labour suffered from a massive fall of support due to the unpopularity of Jeremy Corbyn with the party going back to only one seat in Scotland, with 18.6% being their worst share of the vote in Scotland in the parties history.  The SNP advanced back to 48 seats - not quite breaking 50 again but getting close - and the Liberal Democrats retained their position however national leader Jo Swinson lost her seat.

The main political development since then has been how the various national governments have reacted to the COVID-19 pandemic, with other issues (including the post-Brexit deal; which is sort of important but being ignored) being pushed to the background.  That has dramatically improved the position of the SNP: with Nicola Sturgeon's competent, careful, cautious approach to the pandemic (often re-opening things slightly behind England and enforcing mask use in shops and public transport before England) contrasts favourably to the more chaotic, slapdash approach south of the border.  Sturgeon's popularity ratings are incredibly high - remarkable for the leader of a three term government who'd been in office for six and a half years.  While a lot of this is a perception thing rather than a dramatically different approach; I think that perceived competence has made Scots more likely to follow government advice and also has improved the position of the SNP in the polls.  The new Scottish Conservative leadership, under Jackson Carlaw, hasn't been able to knock down this support with Carlaw himself being relatively anonymous with the Conservatives very much being represented by Boris and the London party, which isn't good for their electoral prospects.

The current polls are perhaps skewed by this COVID world but are in line with what they have been since the last general election so I may as well post the most recent one here:

Panelbase/The Sunday Times, 30th June-3rd July

Constituency:
SNP: 55%
Conservative: 20%
Labour: 15%
LD: 6%
Grn: 3%
Oth: <1%

Regional List:
SNP: 50%
Con: 18%
Lab: 15%
Grn: 8%
LD: 6%
Oth: 2%

The SNP have been over 50% of the constituency vote and, with a single exception, over 45% of the regional list vote in every poll since the last General Election which would almost guarantee the SNP a majority.  The Conservatives and Labour are moving backwards with both losing lots of seats if this pattern happens.  The Greens would make gains, and may end up surpassing their 2003 performance and the Liberal Democrats would likely hold on to what they have, and may gain a seat or two.

You could go seat-by-seat and analyse things at that level but I think with this voting system that isn't overly helpful because the list seats will counterbalance a lot of that stuff.  One place to watch is the North East: traditionally an SNP area (pre-2015 a majority of their Westminster representation came from there) but before that strongly Conservative, the Conservatives gained Aberdeenshire West in 2016 and many other seats in the region in 2017, a lot of which they retained in 2019.  The North East is also where a lot of the Brexit support in Scotland came from; mostly due to the strength of fishing in many communities in that region.  Seats to watch are places like Banffshire and Buchan Coast which almost certainly voted Conservative in 2017 and 2019;, Angus North and Mearns and Moray (which is in the Highland Region but relevant to talk about here) which also voted Tory in the last few General Elections: if the Conservatives do make gains in this election it will likely be in these areas.

The Central Belt is very SNP dominated with flashes of Tory and Labour seats running across it.  I don't see much possibility of any Labour/Tory gains here unless there's a massive swing against the government; so the areas that are interesting are the non-SNP held seats.  The Lib Dems hold Edinburgh Western which is probably relatively safe; with Lib Dem support holding up better than the other two Unionist parties and the Lib Dems also being best placed to benefit from the 'unionist' vote, as both Labour and Tory voters are generally comfortable with backing the Liberals.

Labour's three remaining constituency seats are here; Edinburgh Southern is where their last remaining Westminster seat is and where anti-SNP voters are used to tactically voting Labour so this is probably pretty safe (although note that in the regional vote in 2016 Labour actually finished third behind the Tories and SNP, Labour benefitting from tactical voting from Tories, Lib Dems and some Greens to win).  East Lothian and Dumbarton are a lot less secure and at this point the SNP is almost certainly ahead in both: the loss of former Labour leader Iain Gray in East Lothian doesn't exactly help their re-election chances there.

The Conservatives are defending three seats in the Central Belt; although I'm willing to give one of those away now.  Edinburgh Central was a bit of a freak occurrence with the seat being won by Ruth Davidson on only 28% of the vote due to her having a personal leadership vote and the seat being Labour held plus a strong Green campaign meaning that the anti-Conservative vote was split three ways.  With the loss of Labour incumbency and, I assume, a less strong Green campaign here and the loss of Davidson the Conservatives start off behind here.  Ayr and Eastwood are a lot less clear: both are traditional Conservative seats.  Ayr was won by the Tories in a 2000 by-election and has been held ever since although its been super-marginal ever since, and if John Scott (who's been MSP since 2000) stands down it might make the Tories less likely to retain the seat.  Eastwood takes in the most affluent areas around 'greater Glasgow' with Jackson Carlaw managing to gain the seat from Labour after the latter fell.  The Westminster equivalent was gained by the Tories in 2017 but then won back by the SNP in 2019.  The seat was a three-way marginal in 2016 although I assume that 30% Labour gets squeezed right down with the question being how that vote divides between the two other parties: if ex-Labour voters back the SNP then it makes Carlaw's position tighter although he'll be an MSP in the next parliament regardless due to the list.

Its impossible to really analyse the list until you have an idea of the constituency results but I'll attempt here.  I think there are two main things to talk about: in 2011 the SNP managed to break the electoral system by winning a list seat in the North East despite sweeping the constituencies and based on current polling there's a good chance they could do it again, although a lot more likely to happen in the Glasgow and Central Scotland regions.  The other regional list thing we can look at is the Greens since they won't win any constituencies and so we have a better idea whether they can get in.  The Greens managed to elect six MSPs in 2016: two in Lothians and one each in Glasgow, West Scotland, Mid Scotland and Fife, and the Highlands and Islands.  Current polling has them around or slightly above their 2016 performance so its unlikely that they'll be wiped out but a small fall of support would see them lose their MSPs in West Scotland (won by a very small margin) and Mid Scotland and Fife (gained mainly because of the Lib Dems gaining North East Fife); with only Patrick Harvie in Glasgow and Alison Johnstone in Lothians being secure in their positions.  Realistic Green aims in this election are to protect their current seats, add a list seat in every region (so gaining in Central Scotland, North East Scotland and South Scotland) and winning a second seat in Glasgow which is very much possible.  If former Labour voters elect to vote SNP/Green then these scenarios are all very possible.  The voting system and the links between the constituency and regional seats also means that the fate of the Greens could be reliant on those results: its marginally easier for the Greens to get in if one party doesn't sweep every constituency seat and especially Lib Dem losses in North East Fife and Edinburgh Southern might make their second Lothians seat and their Mid Scotland and Fife seat marginally harder to win.  There's no real point at looking at other minor parties since they aren't likely to be a factor: the Brexit Party built up a bit of support and were polling around the level where they might have won a seat or two but now that's very unlikely and the far left parties are no longer really a factor with their voters opting for either the SNP or the Greens.

I hope this is a good (although very wordy) OP: any feedback please let me know!

[IceAgeComing]

https://twitter.com/AnasSarwar/status/1371053205967241224?s=20

Sturgeon and Sarwar will face off against each other, but Sturgeon should still win, it's 'Likely SNP' at worst at the moment.

If Labour were to do well I could imagine a scenario where Labour gain 5 or so constituencies (Provan, Pollok, Kelvin, Rutherglen, and either Anniesland or Maryhill) but Sarwar isn't elected because he's second on the list. As entertaining as such a scenario might be it's unlikely.

Of course in reality this does not really matter since whoever loses (Sarwar almost certainly) would get in on the list: the only vaguely realistic scenarios where this does not happen would require the SNP to only lose Glasgow Southside and then not win a seat on the list (very unlikely) or a scenario where Labour make a number of breakthroughs in other Glasgow seats to the point where they are not entitled to any list seats (again: very unlikely).  I suspect if the latter was the case Sarwar would be standing in one of the other Glasgow seats: the fact that he's contesting Southside suggests that is not going to happen.  Its also not totally out of vanity: his father represented Govan (the predecessor seat) in Westminster from 1997 to 2005 and he's got links to the area.

[IceAgeComing]

Sarwar's father was MP for most of the seat for a long time and his family has a presence in the region plus Sarwar is Scottish Labour leader so he'll be carrying a personal vote with him as well.

The results are incredibly hard to read: which I think is expected.  What we have seen is that the luck appears to be going the way of the SNP: the marginals that have come in so far have all gone their way and there are some other seats that they seem optimistic in while the Tories aren't in the seats they are defending: and if the SNP get to 65 constituencies (and realistically 63 or 64 since they'll have a few list seats in South Scotland) then the list doesn't matter when it comes to their majority.  Will be a long wait though.

Shetland isn't surprising: Tavish Scott was the Lib Dem MSP in 2016 and had been there since the beginning so clearly had a large personal vote (had a 17% majority against an Independent in 2011 which was the nadir for the Lib Dems in Scotland) and the Lib Dems fell hard in the by-election - the key difference between the by-election and the General Election is that while that vote was split between the SNP and an Independent two years ago in this election it all went to the SNP.

[IceAgeComing]

What are these seats you are seeing as likely to change?  Other than the two that Bore mentioned the marginals have declared; certainly all the Edinburgh ones have.

[IceAgeComing]

Dunno if you can really call 7% a 'decent Lib Dem vote' in the North East of Scotland; that's almost certainly their floor.

That doesn't explain why the SNP had an almost 10% increase compared to the special election though, and since that special election Wishart is the incumbent. I think it could be related to Brexit. the fishing industries have been particularly hard hit by brexit. (Shetland has a large fishing industry). Those people may be in favour of rejoining the EU and the easiest way to achieve that could be an independent Scotland which joins the EU. The LibDems do not support another independence referendum so that could be an explanation which is related to dissatisfaction over brexit

An Independent stood in the by-election and got 11% of the vote and didn't stand this time; and the bulk of their votes (plus I suspect the 1.6% that went for the Greens in the by-election) clearly went to the SNP.  Every party had an increase in vote share from the by-election because of the fall in the number of candidates.

[IceAgeComing]

Dunno if you can really call 7% a 'decent Lib Dem vote' in the North East of Scotland; that's almost certainly their floor.

That doesn't explain why the SNP had an almost 10% increase compared to the special election though, and since that special election Wishart is the incumbent. I think it could be related to Brexit. the fishing industries have been particularly hard hit by brexit. (Shetland has a large fishing industry). Those people may be in favour of rejoining the EU and the easiest way to achieve that could be an independent Scotland which joins the EU. The LibDems do not support another independence referendum so that could be an explanation which is related to dissatisfaction over brexit

An Independent stood in the by-election and got 11% of the vote and didn't stand this time; and the bulk of their votes (plus I suspect the 1.6% that went for the Greens in the by-election) clearly went to the SNP.  Every party had an increase in vote share from the by-election because of the fall in the number of candidates.

That is still no answer to my question whether the SNP overperformance could be due to problems with Brexit.... And apparently SNP beat LibDems on the list vote, which is the first time the LibDems did not win Shetland since 1950!

The SNP almost certainly won Shetland in 2015 (the O+S result was close and Danus Skene was from Shetland and that’s where the SNP did best because as a seat it’s one where personalities and candidates matter especially) so it’s not some unprecedented thing.

Your premise seems inherently faulty: fishing communities were typically the biggest base of Leave support in Scotland and indeed the only places that voted leave were fishing areas so this idea that a vote would be swung by this group of pro-rejoin fishermen is silly.  Shetland also isn’t exactly a place where Independence is popular - it’s identity is distinct and a lot of the residents see themselves as Shetlanders first then Scots; and the whole Crown Dependency push post-independence isn’t some niche thing.  The two fundamental factors are that Independent candidate and the pandemic which made Sturgeon more popular and clearly, as in the vast majority of elections in the last year including the ones in the other parts of the UK, acted to help incumbent governments and considering that Shetland was almost always in looser restrictions than Scotland as a whole it may well be especially the case up there.  Brexit as an issue makes little sense in a Lib Dem vs SNP fight anyway.

[IceAgeComing]

Considering that those areas are devolved matters it would likely be seen as an attack on the legitimacy of the devolved institutions: and therefore would be likely to blow up in their faces.

[IceAgeComing]

The question of whether a 'mandate' exists for manifesto commitments is silly I think. The SNP and the Greens (along with the Alba party but they got no seats so are irrelevant) both stood on a clear position that they support a second referendum and collectively they have a majority in Parliament to pass a bill for one which is all the mandate you need for something. Especially for a referendum where the key question is one where you are seeking a mandate directly from the electorate anyway. The electorate knew who they were voting for when they voted after all.

Fwiw, electoralcalculus always has the western bit of Caithness and Sutherland (Lairg, Lochinver) as more Lib Dem than the seat as a whole.

Electoral Calculus numbers are voodoo maths even when they have a solid set of local elections to base them on: in the Highlands where every local election is almost exclusively Independents with a few SNP and Green candidates standing in scattered wards it is even more so since they can't use local election results to test their hunches in the same way.