PA: NYT / Siena: Fetterman (D) +6

[President Johnson]

Just not relevant anymore, but I do think Fetterman is still slightly favored.

No one is going "Well, Fetterman probably isn't fit to serve, so I guess I'll vote for Oz.". Their politics are too different. They're shifting the vote calculus in their head to Oz vs. Josh Shapiro's Senate appointment.

Yeah. Anyone who says that was probably never going to vote for Fetterman as well.

I'm glad there's at least a normal pollster out now, though a six point margin is very doubtful. I can believe the 50% though.

[Devils30]

This is still consistent with a 2020 like poll and a 2020 result of Fetterman +1-2 (same as Biden).

[bilaps]

If this showed Oz+6, so many people here would be calling this race a done deal. But because it shows the Democrat leading, it’s treated with skepticism.

Yes, because this board is known for it's republican lean.

You're just writing nonsense

[wbrocks67]

If this showed Oz+6, so many people here would be calling this race a done deal. But because it shows the Democrat leading, it’s treated with skepticism.

Yes, because this board is known for it's republican lean.

You're just writing nonsense

Well there's certainly quite a bit of republican leaning folks here. But there's also a ton of doomers as well, that was his point.

[Senator Incitatus]

If this showed Oz+6, so many people here would be calling this race a done deal. But because it shows the Democrat leading, it’s treated with skepticism.

Yes, because this board is known for it's republican lean.

You're just writing nonsense

I think a fair number of people have put the worst posters on ignore, giving them a much more balanced view of partisanship on the site.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

I really hope Fetterman can hold on here. I really don't know if he will.

Flying mostly blind this election.

[MT Treasurer]

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1587048192079716353
https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1587093381603368960

how bad of a reckoning will the polling industry receive after this election?

Polling Dies in Darkness

[Calthrina950]

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1587048192079716353
https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1587093381603368960

how bad of a reckoning will the polling industry receive after this election?

Polling Dies in Darkness

Who do you think will be proven correct next week? The R-leaning pollsters, like Trafalgar, Big Data, InsiderAdvantage, etc., or the "mainstream" pollsters such as NYT/Siena, Civiqs, Selzer, and the like? Most left-leaning posters seem to believe that the latter will.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1587048192079716353
https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1587093381603368960

how bad of a reckoning will the polling industry receive after this election?

Polling Dies in Darkness

Lol do you know Shapiro is gonna have coattails and Barnes is down by 2 because Evers is gonna have coattails we are gonna see a MWK poll on Wed showing Evers slightly keading

[AnOdyssey]

I really hope Fetterman is up +6. I know its a terrible thing to assume that voters will hold his debate performance and medical issue against him, I just have that aching feeling they will and Oz might pull it off.

Anyways, I hope I am wrong in the end. Fetterman seems like a great guy, and its terrible that he suffered stroke. Not saying that out of it affecting his race, but being only two years younger than my dad, it hits close to him.

[MT Treasurer]

Who do you think will be proven correct next week? The R-leaning pollsters, like Trafalgar, Big Data, InsiderAdvantage, etc., or the "mainstream" pollsters such as NYT/Siena, Civiqs, Selzer, and the like? Most left-leaning posters seem to believe that the latter will.

The former, but they are obviously not a monolith, nor will all of their polls turn out to be accurate (Trafalgar in particular will have some misses in deep blue states). Also, just because "traditional" methods of polling by supposedly reputable polling organizations are problematic in their own ways doesn’t mean that all innovative methods are going to be sound. However, as long as "mainstream" pollsters keep missing and those misses happen to consistently favor one side, there is no reason why we should trust them more than pollsters like Emerson or InsiderAdvantage or pay particular attention to them as opposed to the latter. The left loves to operate by conferring prestige/authority on anything and anybody who concurs with their narrative while stripping anything or anybody who disagrees with it of said prestige (this is evident even on this forum), but don’t let that intimidate you — you are absolutely right that "established" or "mainstream" does not equate to "reliable" and "trustworthy" (this doesn’t just apply to polls, of course).

Even if Republicans sweep nearly all the competitive races, however, I don’t believe anything will fundamentally change, and we’ll go through this every cycle for the foreseeable future. One side is systematically overrepresented in the 'consensus' and in punditry, and it will keep discrediting the former group of pollsters while treating the latter with (unwarranted) authority because it bolsters their narrative. Polls have become a convenient way of adding a scientific veneer to one's preconceived narrative, and other indicators (fundraising, special elections, early voting, etc.) are arguably becoming (or have already become) even less predictive of actual election results than polling. I don’t think there’s an obvious fix to this problem in the short term — it’ll always be "choose your adventure," with one side (Democrats) doing well in the 'traditional' indicators/metrics and the 'established' outlets and the other side (Republicans) doing well in the 'alternative' ones. Sounds familiar, doesn’t it?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Who do you think will be proven correct next week? The R-leaning pollsters, like Trafalgar, Big Data, InsiderAdvantage, etc., or the "mainstream" pollsters such as NYT/Siena, Civiqs, Selzer, and the like? Most left-leaning posters seem to believe that the latter will.

The former, but they are obviously not a monolith, nor will all of their polls turn out to be accurate (Trafalgar in particular will have some misses in deep blue states). Also, just because "traditional" methods of polling by supposedly reputable polling organizations are problematic in their own ways doesn’t mean that all innovative methods are going to be sound. However, as long as "mainstream" pollsters keep missing and those misses happen to consistently favor one side, there is no reason why we should trust them more than pollsters like Emerson or InsiderAdvantage or pay particular attention to them as opposed to the latter. The left loves to operate by conferring prestige/authority on anything and anybody who concurs with their narrative while stripping anything or anybody who disagrees with it of said prestige (this is evident even on this forum), but don’t let that intimidate you — you are absolutely right that "established" or "mainstream" does not equate to "reliable" and "trustworthy" (this doesn’t just apply to polls, of course).

Even if Republicans sweep nearly all the competitive races, however, I don’t believe anything will fundamentally change, and we’ll go through this every cycle for the foreseeable future. One side is systematically overrepresented in the 'consensus' and in punditry, and it will keep discrediting the former group of pollsters while treating the latter with (unwarranted) authority because it bolsters their narrative. Polls have become a convenient way of adding a scientific veneer to one's preconceived narrative, and other indicators (fundraising, special elections, early voting, etc.) are arguably becoming (or have already become) even less predictive of actual election results than polling. I don’t think there’s an obvious fix to this problem in the short term — it’ll always be "choose your adventure," with one side (Democrats) doing well in the 'traditional' indicators/metrics and the 'established' outlets and the other side (Republicans) doing well in the 'alternative' ones. Sounds familiar, doesn’t it?

All our Incumbent Ds are ahead CCM, Warnock and Kelly and Hassan that still gives us a 51/50 S

[Pollster]

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/11/02/upshot/polls-2022-midterms-fix.html?action=click&module=RelatedLinks&pgtype=Article

Relevant portion:

In our recent Pennsylvania poll, voters who said they recalled voting for Mr. Biden outnumbered those who backed Mr. Trump by four points, compared with Mr. Biden’s actual one-point victory. If we had adjusted our poll to match the 2020 results, we would have given more weight to the voters who said they backed Mr. Trump, shifting our results to the right (if you’re curious, John Fetterman would have led by three points in our recent Senate poll of Pennsylvania, 48 percent to 45 percent, rather than by 5.5 points).

[wbrocks67]

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/11/02/upshot/polls-2022-midterms-fix.html?action=click&module=RelatedLinks&pgtype=Article

Relevant portion:

In our recent Pennsylvania poll, voters who said they recalled voting for Mr. Biden outnumbered those who backed Mr. Trump by four points, compared with Mr. Biden’s actual one-point victory. If we had adjusted our poll to match the 2020 results, we would have given more weight to the voters who said they backed Mr. Trump, shifting our results to the right (if you’re curious, John Fetterman would have led by three points in our recent Senate poll of Pennsylvania, 48 percent to 45 percent, rather than by 5.5 points).

Makes sense, most of the nonpartisan polling has settled around Fetterman 2-4-ish