Virginia Governor's Race 2013 -Who's Gonna Win?

[Non Swing Voter]

I really hope Cuccinelli doesn't win.  He legitimately scares me.  I also see his ads on tv all the time (NOVA) and he strikes me as laughably fake.  You can tell he's a pretty awful person but puts on this sweet innocent face in all his commercials, it's kind of sickening.

[Non Swing Voter]

Republicans are doing great at this whole rebranding thing.

Ken Cuccinelli Appeals To Defend Virginia's Anti-Sodomy Law At Supreme Court

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http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/06/25/ken-cuccinelli-sodomy-supreme-court_n_3498444.html?ncid=edlinkusaolp00000003

I just read about this somewhere else. He said that it should stand because it allowed them to prosecute a 47-year-old for having sex with a 17-year old.

My immediate reaction was "Why can't you just prosecute him under age of consent laws???"

Likely because the sodomy law was a felony (I think)... whereas the age of consent law in that case would only be a misdemeanor:

Virginia

The age of consent in Virginia is 18, with a close in age exception that allows teenagers aged 15 to 17 to engage in sexual acts but only with a partner younger than 18.

Section § 18.2-63 of the Code refers to minors younger than 15, while § 18.2-371 is about 15-, 16- and 17-year-olds.

Section 18.2-63 states in part:
"If any person carnally knows, without the use of force, a child thirteen years of age or older but under fifteen years of age, such person shall be guilty of ... felony ... For the purposes of this section, (i) a child under the age of thirteen years shall not be considered a consenting child and (ii) "carnal knowledge" includes the acts of sexual intercourse, cunnilingus, fellatio, analingus, anal intercourse, and animate and inanimate object sexual penetration."
Consensual sex where one partner is 15, 16 or 17 and the other is over 18 is a class 1 misdemeanor.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ages_of_consent_in_North_America#Virginia

The guy is clearly a sleazebag though.

[Non Swing Voter]

I am just hoping that the over the top statements some candidates are making will drive up turnout.  If turnout approaches a Presidential election, it would be impossible for the Republicans to win any of these races...

[Non Swing Voter]

Having off-year elections allows a focus on state instead of federal issues in election season, and for that I consider it a very good thing. 

I agree with this, but everything is so partisan nowadays that national crap finds its way in.  If it was all about who is going to fix the traffic problem in NOVA or make the local schools better... then this would be great. But, most people in Virginia are just going to vote on party line and the results will track closely with demographic and regional voting patterns in Presidential years... the difference being it will skew more rural, older, and whiter.

[Non Swing Voter]

I am just hoping that the over the top statements some candidates are making will drive up turnout.  If turnout approaches a Presidential election, it would be impossible for the Republicans to win any of these races...

That will drive down turnout if anything.

I think it depends how over the top they get.  If they start making homophobic/anti-abortion comments, I could see it pissing off Fairfax/Arlington/Alexandria voters enough to drive turnout up slightly.  Pretty sure there is a huge gay population on the metro accessible areas of NOVA, I am curious how mobilized they will be to vote against someone who has literal contempt for them.

[Non Swing Voter]

I don't think the scandals will be a deciding factor.  It's going to come out to turnout.  In an election where most of the electorate turns out, Republicans cannot win unless their candidate is flawless (which Cooch is not... in fact he's far from).  In a low turnout election, Republicans can win because most of the drop off will be minorities and young voters, which is a big portion of the Northern Virginia vote.

[Non Swing Voter]

While I understand that Cooch is a pathetic nutjob, if the GOP can't even stay somewhat competitive in non-Presidential elections in Virginia now, then the state has transitioned to blue even faster than I thought (and I've been the one saying it's transitioning much faster than everyone thinks).

Also, I live in NOVA and I'm not really seeing the cutback in stupid cooch ads.  I see a ton of his ads still.  They all suck and no-one here is going to vote for that jerk but it's not like the GOP has just given up... which makes the current poll numbers even more disturbing for them. 

It would be interesting if one of the polls did a breakdown by region.  I'd imagine (as usual) the problem for the GOP is based in NOVA even though they are probably doing alright in the rest of the state... they are probably just losing NOVA by an even larger margin than normal.