AL-SEN: Predict final margin (CLOSED: Moore +2.5)

[Doimper]

In light of recent polling, I'm going to revise my prediction up to Jones +4.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Moore wins by less than 6 points.

[Dr. MB]

Moore+2

[Progressive]

Jones by 0.6%

[UncleSam]

Starting to think Moore will pull it out, if only just.

Moore +.5

I don't think write-ins will get that many votes, and I don't think Jones can top 47-48%. Probably something like 48.5-48 Moore.

[forgotten manatee]

Went for a 1% margin of victory for Jones. There's been a surge in Democratic turn out in nearly every special election in 2017, so if it can happen in Oklahoma I don't see why that can't happen in Alabama too. Between that and depressed Republican turn-out, plus anecdotal evidence of many Alabama Republicans opting to write in other conservative candidates rather than support Moore, I'm hoping Jones can eke out a win.

47% Jones
46% Moore

[Pericles]

Jones +1.95%

[daveosupremo]

Moore +6

[The Other Castro]

Final Prediction: Jones +2.52%

Jones: 438,594: 49.19%
Moore: 416,125: 46.67%
Write-ins: 36,914: 4.14%
-Most popular names include: Lee Busby, Nick Saban, Jeff Sessions, and Luther Strange, in that order.

OK, actual for real final prediction, taking into account increased turnout. I have still kept the same margin since 11/22.

Jones +2.52%

Jones: 566,737: 49.19%
Moore: 537,703: 46.67%
Write-ins: 47,699: 4.14%

[ElectionsGuy]

Moore: 50%
Jones: 47%

It's better to go with our gut here instead of weighing polling into our prediction, because clearly, there seems to be no consistency.

[Kempros]

Fox News poll says J+10, Emerson says M+9, Monmouth says tied. The Pollsters are pulling a Virginia again. Hard to say... Welp, here it goes. My guess is Jones +2.

Republican turnout will probably be depressed from the bombardment of negative media coverage. (Deja Vu) The Dems seem to be a lot more enthusiastic. Turnout is key for both. That's all I'm going to say.

[Podgy the Bear]

Black turnout will not be strong enough.  Moore wins 50-48.  Which is sad.

[Terry the Fat Shark]

Moore - 49
Jones - 44

[Adam Griffin]

Total Votes: 94
Aggregate Margin: Moore +2.9

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

Jones 47, Moore 45

[musicblind]

Moore +4

[BlueSwan]

When the scandal broke I predicted Moore by 5-9%. I'll stick by that and say that Moore wins by 5%.

[heatcharger]

Moore 49%
Jones 46%
Assorted goobers 5%

[💥💥 brandon bro (he/him/his)]

I want to look like a maverick and call a Jones win, but I think the "Don't let elitist outsiders tell you to how to vote" narrative from 2016 will motivate Republicans and carry Moore to a win.

Moore - 48.7
Jones - 46.5

Bonus: will Moore be expelled from the Senate?
Yea - 63
Nay - 34
Abstain - 1

[Chief Justice Keef]

Jones +3.

[JA]

48.8% - Moore
47.2% - Jones
04.0% - Others/Write-In

Moore +1.6%

[TDAS04]

Moore by 6.

[john cage bubblegum]

Jones  49.6%
Moore  46.8%
Write-in  3.6%

[ursulahx]

Moore +6. And frankly I think that’s optimistic (from a Dem POV, I mean).

[SoLongAtlas]

Moore by 5. People aren't talking about the tribalism factor enough and those that would hold their nose and vote FOR Moore, as opposed to voting for Jones.