Ontario 2018 election

[ON Progressive]

Nanos released a new poll:

PC 42%, Liberal 31%, NDP 21%, Green 5%

http://www.nanos.co/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/2018-1150-OREA-Wave-2-Populated-Report-with-Tabs.pdf (go to page 57)

Plugging it in to the tooclosetocall simulator results in a seat count of: PC 70, Liberal 33, NDP 21.

[ON Progressive]

I got basically a tie between the Greens (83%) and NDP (82%), with the Liberals at 77% and PCs at 38%.

[ON Progressive]

Given how he's a yellow "L-ON", I think we're looking at pot/kettle/black re DabbingSanta's judgment of "radical".

If you think London-Fanshawe is the only riding the NDP is capable of winning in 'your backyard', you need to stop posting in this thread, because you're delusional.

The far left's "tolerance" is showing in full force.  

London North Centre has been steady Liberal for decades, minus a brief Conservative blip in 2011. NDP support is confined to EOA, south of Oxford, the Grenfell area, and Proudfoot. Old North, which was strong Liberal will go Conservative, not NDP. Masonville, Stoneybrook, and Northridge will be Conservative. I don't believe my district is trending NDP as shown on the Laurier site. Even there, the PCs are still winning in seats, where it counts.

I concede that I totally ignored London West when I made that backyard statement. I literally meant my backyard, not all of the London region.

LISPOP May 22 - 69 PC, 39 NDP, 16 Lib.
http://lispop.ca/seat-projection/provincial

London North Centre only went OLP by 6% in 2014, and the NDP are almost certainly going to do better than 2014 provincewide, let alone in Southwestern Ontario. It's ridiculous to rule out the NDP's chances of winning a riding they got 30% of the vote in 4 years ago, especially since they are going to do better this year in all likelihood.

[ON Progressive]

Right, but the gains are from the OLP, especially in suburban Toronto. In places where the OLP did poorly in 2014, like SW Ontario, the PCs are not going to be seeing similar gains because there's less OLP vote for them to gain from to begin with.

There isn't likely going to be seat gains for the PCs in SW Ontario, but they're likely to keep what they have.  The NDP will almost certainly succeed in driving the Liberals out of Waterloo region and London, but defeating PC MPPs in the region is harder.

I can see, based on polling which has the PCs stagnant (again referred previously, using Ipsos SW), PC seats that I see going NDP, even if they are the opposition are:

Chatham-Kent-Leamington (this new boundary gains all NDP polls from Essex)
Sarnia-Lambton

If trends continue, and the PCs start to slip, which is completely realistic:

Huron-Bruce
Perth-Wellington
Lambton-Kent-Middlesex
Kitchener-Conestoga
Oxford
Elgin-Middlesex-London
** everyone of these seats saw a decrease in both PC and OLP vote and Increase for the NDP in 2014, and I expect that overall trend to continue.

Hey, that's my riding! I'm not very optimistic about it flipping, even if the NDP end up being ahead of the PCs. Only way it happens is if Woodstock/Ingersoll go very strongly NDP. Hardeman is really strong in the rural portions of the district. The Liberal areas could very well be OLP 14/PC 18 areas (all the Woodstock Liberal 2014 polls are in relatively wealthy areas of town).

[ON Progressive]

It grinds my gears that every single Canadian poll uses decimals when it is impossible to get accuracy down to the tenth of a percent in a poll. Can anyone explain why Canadian polling companies do this?

[ON Progressive]

Also Forum poll is odd than unweighted numbers are 342 PC, 307 NDP, 143 Liberal, 46 Green, 16 other parties so seems like massive re-weighting to me.  Not saying NDP isn't ahead, but using just raw numbers it is 40% PC, 36% NDP 16.7% Liberal so going from that to 47% NDP, 33% PC, and 14% Liberal asides from Liberal numbers seems to be a stretch.  Ekos apparently shows NDP with big lead so look forward to seeing theirs.  Mainstreet stated PCs still ahead although tightening.  Innovative is supposed to come out later today as well.

Yeah, this poll is trash.

[ON Progressive]

Question for the Ontarians: why does the NDP seem to do better in rural southwestern Ontario than rural eastern Ontario?

In SW Ontario, there's a lot of manufacturing even in ridings thought of as "rural."

Pretty much this. Using my riding of Oxford for example, there's the Toyota plant in Woodstock and the Cami plant in Ingersoll. Both are very significant employers in those cities. There's quite a bit of other manufacturing as well, but those are the two most notable examples.

[ON Progressive]

I feel like individual candidates don't swing the vote too much outside their riding unless they do something really awful like the "lake of fire" guy in Alberta. Most people in Canada vote based on the party they want to win, not on local candidates.

[ON Progressive]

I feel like individual candidates don't swing the vote too much outside their riding unless they do something really awful like the "lake of fire" guy in Alberta. Most people in Canada vote based on the party they want to win, not on local candidates.

Lawton is pretty horrible.

Definitely agreed. He might be the only one that really has an impact outside his riding, and even then it won't be like the "lake of fire" guy who made a lot of fiscal conservative and social moderal/liberal voters freaked out about Wildrose.

[ON Progressive]

Since we were speaking about Oxford a few pages back, I decided to calculate some 2014 #s for Woodstock/Ingersoll.

Woodstock went 41% PC, 27.7% NDP, 25.1% Liberal, 4.2% Green, 1.9% Others
Ingersoll went 39% NDP, 33.7% PC, 18% Liberal, 7.5% Green, 1.8% Others

Interesting that the Greens were relatively strong in Ingersoll. I imagine the Green candidate must have been from there.

[ON Progressive]

So Mainstreet is supposed to be releasing some riding poll results this afternoon...

NDP lead in Algoma–Manitoulin, Scarborough Southwest, and Ottawa West–Nepean

PC lead in Sarnia–Lambton, and Kitchener–Conestoga

OLP lead in Toronto-St. Pauls

These make absolutely no sense. The NDP leading in Ottawa West-Nepean but losing in Sarnia-Lambton would be bizarre to say the least.

[ON Progressive]

So Mainstreet is supposed to be releasing some riding poll results this afternoon...

NDP lead in Algoma–Manitoulin, Scarborough Southwest, and Ottawa West–Nepean

PC lead in Sarnia–Lambton, and Kitchener–Conestoga

OLP lead in Toronto-St. Pauls

These make absolutely no sense. The NDP leading in Ottawa West-Nepean but losing in Sarnia-Lambton would be bizarre to say the least.

Do you have figures? Not that electorate polls will be at all useful.

I'm not a subscriber unfortunately, so I don't.

[ON Progressive]

Abacus has NDP up 4

http://onpulse.ca/blog/ndp-leads-by-4-as-final-debate-looms

[ON Progressive]

Do you think Wynne will lose her seat?

Hopefully she holds on (the NDP have no chance here, so I want her to win to deny the PCs the seat), but it's pretty close.

[ON Progressive]

I'm in Kathleen Wynne's seat, and I've decided to wait until E Day to vote in case the NDP surges so much that it becomes worthwhile.

What is it like on the ground there?

[ON Progressive]

To me, my debate rating was:
1) Wynne
2) Horwath
3) Ford

[ON Progressive]

I think KW did pretty well considering the circumstances, maybe that'll stop the bleeding.

I have a feeling that was her goal. To cut off the bleeding to make sure what is left of the Liberal caucus is respectable, as opposed to being completely wiped off.

[ON Progressive]

How is everyone planning to vote? (Or "vote" if not from Ontario.)

Party for People with Special Needs sounds great but sadly they only have five candidates. If we limit it to parties with full or near full slates, I think I'd have to vote *gulps* Libertarian.

I'm planning on voting NDP. I don't want Ford anywhere near the premiership, and the Liberals are just about DOA.

I should note it won't matter much because my riding is likely going to the PCs.

[ON Progressive]

https://twitter.com/quito_maggi/status/1001096466004262913

Mainstreet claiming ONDP have gained substantially on OPC

[ON Progressive]

This happened at Horwath's event in Etobicoke this morning:

https://twitter.com/jessiecatherine/status/1001103387104919552

I don't know what made him think this was remotely a good idea.

[ON Progressive]

While the election is still not decided, I think at the moment the NDP has a better chance of winning than the PCs, but the next few days will be key.  If by week's end the NDP has a 4-5 point lead, then I think they have this barring a major polling error.  If still tied, it will come down to the wire.  Contrary to some I don't think this election was about endorsing a certain direction or platform, rather it was about who was the last person standing.

Before the election even started, voters had already decided they wanted the Wynne Liberals gone thus why naturally they turned to the official opposition the PCs as the vehicle to achieve this.  But after taking a long good hard look at Doug Ford, they concluded he was not fit to be premier of Ontario thus then took a look at the third party, NDP.  With Andrea Horwath, they liked what they saw thus their rise in the polls.  

The PCs, if they lose will have some hard questions to ask as this will be the 4th time they've blown a lead although unlike the past three times, this was the first time they had a double digit lead.  I suspect things will get ugly at first, but the party needs to go through this pain and in the long run weed out the more right wing elements which are just a drag on the party.  Maybe a loss in such ideal conditions will be enough to finally wake up the grassroots that Red Toryism is the only way forward if they ever want to form government again.

For the Liberals, its now try to save the furniture so they have a chance to rebuild post election.  If they can get in the double digit in seats (not likely), I think they will someday once again form government, but if they fall to single digits or worse zero seats, they will likely never form government again and as such future elections will be fought between PCs and NDP.  Their best hope is NDP keeps good on its PR promise as at least that will allow them to stay relevant and if they return to the centre they could even become the kingmaker in future elections in deciding whether NDP or PCs form government.

If Ontario elections became PC vs. NDP races, I wonder who would take most of what would be left of the Liberal vote.

[ON Progressive]

If that were to happen - do not count chickens etc - then the pattern would not be uniform.

Yeah, I don't think it'll happen. There are other provinces that have conservative vs. NDP races, but they are all in the West, where Liberals are irrelevant at the federal level too.

I do think it wouldn't be uniform too. Lots of Liberal voters consider themselves too rich to vote NDP.

[ON Progressive]

Mainstreet riding poll for Kingston and the Islands (picked up from another forum):

NDP 36.1%
Liberals 28.1%
PCs 24.4%
Greens 11%

I don't take riding polls seriously for a reason. No way the Greens are at double digits in Kingston and the Islands.

[ON Progressive]

https://twitter.com/quito_maggi/status/1001267471775494146

OLP getting post debate bump at expense of the NDP

[ON Progressive]

I don't want the Liberals to tank too much tbh. I see the Don Valley seats going PC before they go NDP, really. Anyone who knows that area better than I do can correct me on that though.

I do think the Greens are favoured in Guelph, but not by a lot.

The NDP are definitely going to win London North Centre from what I saw when I went into that riding last weekend.

I'm still thinking a PC majority unfortunately unless NDP are within 5% of the PCs in the GTA/Toronto suburbs/905.