Ontario 2018 election

[King of Kensington]

Maybe KW's opposition to "ideology" will help her with the "John Tory Liberal" constituency.

[King of Kensington]

Re: the riding polls, I find the Ottawa ones very surprising.  Hard to believe the NDP is polling around 30% in Ottawa South and Ottawa West-Nepean - they strike me as being more or less equivalent to Willowdale or the Don Valley in Toronto.

[PeteB]

Abacus has NDP up 4

http://onpulse.ca/blog/ndp-leads-by-4-as-final-debate-looms

Good news for NDP but the fundamentals have not changed - strengthening NDP-stable PC-crumbling Liberals-voter intention firmer for PCs.

PCs down 2,Libs down 1.  How is that "stable" vs "crumbling"?

To me, it looks more like "crumbling" (relative to the NDP, at least) vs "stagnant".

Well, read David Coletto's conclusions:

"PC support has declined somewhat (thanks to more to undecideds moving to the NDP than a loss of its own support) but its support remains solid and concentrated among voters more likely to vote."

[adma]

Abacus has NDP up 4

http://onpulse.ca/blog/ndp-leads-by-4-as-final-debate-looms

Good news for NDP but the fundamentals have not changed - strengthening NDP-stable PC-crumbling Liberals-voter intention firmer for PCs.

PCs down 2,Libs down 1.  How is that "stable" vs "crumbling"?

To me, it looks more like "crumbling" (relative to the NDP, at least) vs "stagnant".

Well, read David Coletto's conclusions:

"PC support has declined somewhat (thanks to more to undecideds moving to the NDP than a loss of its own support) but its support remains solid and concentrated among voters more likely to vote."

You're reading "conclusions"; I'm reading *numbers*.  And a so-called solid core means nothing when the soft/undecideds aren't falling your way.

Indeed, the "NDP and PC Party competitive" headline and "but all change statistically insignificant" disclaimer looks to me like cautious pussyfooting around the fact that with the rogue exception of Forum, this is the first poll to show a better-than-single-point lead for the NDP, i.e. the momentum's crossed a palpable threshold.  And yes, I know, we shouldn't take things at face value, Hillary '16 and all; but, still...

(And again: the Libs look to be more stagnant than crumbling--in fact, 23% looks *high* for them lately.)

[King of Kensington]

On the pre-election discussion on CBC tonight, Brad Lavigne stated that Andrea Horwath is not only taking votes from Liberals but "traditional Tories."  Rosie Barton asked Eric Grenier whether he thought this was true.  He said he thinks that she's pulling from the parked PC/anti-Liberal vote but it wasn't clear that she was actually poaching away from reliably Conservative voters.

[adma]

On the pre-election discussion on CBC tonight, Brad Lavigne stated that Andrea Horwath is not only taking votes from Liberals but "traditional Tories."  Rosie Barton asked Eric Grenier whether he thought this was true.  He said he thinks that she's pulling from the parked PC/anti-Liberal vote but it wasn't clear that she was actually poaching away from reliably Conservative voters.

A bit of a weasel question, but how many of those who voted Conservative in incumbent/competitive seats even in 2014 were actually "reliable", as opposed to just "backing a winner" or something?  Might explain rumours of seats like Elgin-Middlesex-London being in play.

Of course, there's also the matter of K-W's Witmer-to-Fife switch; but Witmer was barely "Conservative" in that sense...

[lilTommy]

Debate:

Wynne; much better performance, but odd with the `Sorry, not Sorry`comment, that`s the desperation talking. She had to either own her record and the entire Liberal one or continue as she has been by saying were not perfect but please vote for me. She tried to do both, she fails to understand that people don`t like her because she is the Liberal leader of a government going on 15 years. It`s less her as a person and more her as the Liberal premier. Performed well but was the union/worker basher? for someone who was courting unions hard last time, she turned her back now. I thought Andrea did well (not great) on that exchange. much better then the first two debates, I think she stopped the bleeding, I think die hards who were starting to worry will stick with them, so around 20-24% I'd say is where they will end.

Ford; Terrible, just terrible. He can barely form a coherent argument without falling apart into crass fear mongering and lies. He has not adapted his campaign to the new reality of this being mostly a PC/NDP battle, so he's stuck in poor campaigning. Having said that, if you were sold on a Ford PC lead gov't before, nothing changed now. I think some parked Change vote might move away from him given his "sky is falling over the NDP" and blatant rich man "ask you boss who to vote for" comments and still no.costed.plan! for someone who is suppose to be the fiscal conservative here, he's not showing it.

Horwath; Good, but not as great as the first two. Much more fire-in-her-belly, but that might be in response the being the target. un-phased after Ford stole her line... which made me LOL. No death blow against her, but also no real major blows against anyone else. Was held pretty much on message which is a win for her. 

[adma]

Wouldn't Bob Rae have basically run a "sorry not sorry" campaign in 1995?  By extension, I suppose Doug Ford pratfalled away a commanding lead a la Lyn McLeod, and Horwath is the commanding new Mike Harris...

[Hatman 🍁]

Horwath is the ... new Mike Harris

don't you dare

[PeteB]

Ontario: the last place in the world debates change anything.

I think that this time it will make a difference.  Look for the debate to determine these three things:

1. Can Andrea Horwath convince the public that her personal likeability can translate into an effective head of government?  This will literally determine if NDP peaks at 45-50 seats or if it can go above 63 seats and take over.

2. Can Doug Ford convince any fiscal Liberals that he is the better option?  With the current PC vote efficient and holding steady, he can count on about 45-50 seats.  With the large number of fiscally conservative TCTC seats in Toronto, Ottawa and the 905, this could seal the deal for a Premier Ford.

3. Can Kathleen Wynne, as her last act, save the Liberals from total annihilation? A decent contingent of 15-20 seats is possible and, while it would be still a loss, it would also be a huge improvement from the 5 seats that the polls are predicting.

So just looking at how the leaders did on these tasks:

1. Can Andrea Horwath convince the public that her personal likeability can translate into an effective head of government?  This will literally determine if NDP peaks at 45-50 seats or if it can go above 63 seats and take over.
Honestly, I am in two minds about this - I would like to see some post-debate polls.  Horwath came across as competent and business like, with a "won't take any BS" attitude.  At moments she seemed almost too smart and too smug for her own good.  On one hand that will help convince voters of NDP competency, but on the other she sacrificed her "sunny personality", which was a huge differentiator in earlier debates, I suspect especially with millenial voters.  She also got hit hard several times (union issue, budget competence, candidate selection, reminder of the Rae government).  While she handled all of these competently (except the right to work/union issue), some of it may stick.  She did achieve conveying that she is ready to take over, but it may have come at a price.  If the Liberals don't recover and Doug Ford makes no headway, it may not matter though.

2. Can Doug Ford convince any fiscal Liberals that he is the better option?  With the current PC vote efficient and holding steady, he can count on about 45-50 seats.  With the large number of fiscally conservative TCTC seats in Toronto, Ottawa and the 905, this could seal the deal for a Premier Ford.
Ford arguably never even tried to achieve this, and with a surging Wynne he would have been out of luck anyway.  What he did do is sow doubt about the NDP with the populist voters.  Yes, his fire and brimstone warnings were adolescent, but it may have been enough to stop working class voters switching from Ford to Horwath.  Ford probably lost no voters and from his point of view, that may be a win.

3. Can Kathleen Wynne, as her last act, save the Liberals from total annihilation? A decent contingent of 15-20 seats is possible and, while it would be still a loss, it would also be a huge improvement from the 5 seats that the polls are predicting.
Yes, she can! (sorry - couldn't resist ).  Wynne's stellar performance yesterday reminded everyone that  there is competency in government, although apparently not enough morals and ethics.  Wynne probably saved 7-9 TO seats and (almost) ensured that the Liberals will have official party status.  By default this makes both Horwath's and Ford's job of securing a majority that much more difficult. 

My prediction is that both the NDP and PC need about 5-8 Liberal seats for a majority.  If I had to bet on the likely result right now, I am thinking a hung parliament, with probably a minority NDP government, but with the Liberals as kingmakers.

[Oryxslayer]

Rewatched the debate - was more focused on Colombia yesterday. Wynne definitely saved the furniture  for the Libs, and probably reversed the bleeding a bit. The interesting thing is that if the bleeding is reversed, this probably pushed the NDP down, since Ford never really was poaching Liberals  beyond those that were in his camp pre-leadership election. On the other hand, it means less Three-Way Tories pickups in Toronto, so perhaps it helps Horwath. The other thing of note is that this probably shuts down the Greens attempts at a seat in Guelph.

[Tintrlvr]

Rewatched the debate - was more focused on Colombia yesterday. Wynne definitely saved the furniture  for the Libs, and probably reversed the bleeding a bit. The interesting thing is that if the bleeding is reversed, this probably pushed the NDP down, since Ford never really was poaching Liberals  beyond those that were in his camp pre-leadership election. On the other hand, it means less Three-Way Tories pickups in Toronto, so perhaps it helps Horwath. The other thing of note is that this probably shuts down the Greens attempts at a seat in Guelph.

Idk, the one riding poll we have puts the Liberals in a distant fourth in Guelph, barely breaking double-digits. Might turn the riding over to the NDP, who have a more solid base than the Greens, or the PCs, who could come up the middle, but very hard to see how the Liberals hold on there.

[DC Al Fine]

How is everyone planning to vote? (Or "vote" if not from Ontario.)

Party for People with Special Needs sounds great but sadly they only have five candidates. If we limit it to parties with full or near full slates, I think I'd have to vote *gulps* Libertarian.

[ON Progressive]

How is everyone planning to vote? (Or "vote" if not from Ontario.)

Party for People with Special Needs sounds great but sadly they only have five candidates. If we limit it to parties with full or near full slates, I think I'd have to vote *gulps* Libertarian.

I'm planning on voting NDP. I don't want Ford anywhere near the premiership, and the Liberals are just about DOA.

I should note it won't matter much because my riding is likely going to the PCs.

[PeteB]

How is everyone planning to vote? (Or "vote" if not from Ontario.)

Party for People with Special Needs sounds great but sadly they only have five candidates. If we limit it to parties with full or near full slates, I think I'd have to vote *gulps* Libertarian.

I am in Parkdale High Park, one of the two safest NDP seats in TO, so it does not really matter .

[lilTommy]

How is everyone planning to vote? (Or "vote" if not from Ontario.)

Party for People with Special Needs sounds great but sadly they only have five candidates. If we limit it to parties with full or near full slates, I think I'd have to vote *gulps* Libertarian.

I voted in the Advances, for the NDP here in Spadina-Fort York. This is a solid riding where my (and my partner who voted NDP as well) vote can really help swing this to the NDP (were a new riding)

[ON Progressive]

https://twitter.com/quito_maggi/status/1001096466004262913

Mainstreet claiming ONDP have gained substantially on OPC

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Wouldn't Bob Rae have basically run a "sorry not sorry" campaign in 1995?  By extension, I suppose Doug Ford pratfalled away a commanding lead a la Lyn McLeod, and Horwath is the commanding new Mike Harris...

Second Time As Farce?

[ON Progressive]

This happened at Horwath's event in Etobicoke this morning:

https://twitter.com/jessiecatherine/status/1001103387104919552

I don't know what made him think this was remotely a good idea.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I don't know what made him think this was remotely a good idea.

Desperation?

[mileslunn]

While the election is still not decided, I think at the moment the NDP has a better chance of winning than the PCs, but the next few days will be key.  If by week's end the NDP has a 4-5 point lead, then I think they have this barring a major polling error.  If still tied, it will come down to the wire.  Contrary to some I don't think this election was about endorsing a certain direction or platform, rather it was about who was the last person standing.

Before the election even started, voters had already decided they wanted the Wynne Liberals gone thus why naturally they turned to the official opposition the PCs as the vehicle to achieve this.  But after taking a long good hard look at Doug Ford, they concluded he was not fit to be premier of Ontario thus then took a look at the third party, NDP.  With Andrea Horwath, they liked what they saw thus their rise in the polls.  

The PCs, if they lose will have some hard questions to ask as this will be the 4th time they've blown a lead although unlike the past three times, this was the first time they had a double digit lead.  I suspect things will get ugly at first, but the party needs to go through this pain and in the long run weed out the more right wing elements which are just a drag on the party.  Maybe a loss in such ideal conditions will be enough to finally wake up the grassroots that Red Toryism is the only way forward if they ever want to form government again.

For the Liberals, its now try to save the furniture so they have a chance to rebuild post election.  If they can get in the double digit in seats (not likely), I think they will someday once again form government, but if they fall to single digits or worse zero seats, they will likely never form government again and as such future elections will be fought between PCs and NDP.  Their best hope is NDP keeps good on its PR promise as at least that will allow them to stay relevant and if they return to the centre they could even become the kingmaker in future elections in deciding whether NDP or PCs form government.

[ON Progressive]

While the election is still not decided, I think at the moment the NDP has a better chance of winning than the PCs, but the next few days will be key.  If by week's end the NDP has a 4-5 point lead, then I think they have this barring a major polling error.  If still tied, it will come down to the wire.  Contrary to some I don't think this election was about endorsing a certain direction or platform, rather it was about who was the last person standing.

Before the election even started, voters had already decided they wanted the Wynne Liberals gone thus why naturally they turned to the official opposition the PCs as the vehicle to achieve this.  But after taking a long good hard look at Doug Ford, they concluded he was not fit to be premier of Ontario thus then took a look at the third party, NDP.  With Andrea Horwath, they liked what they saw thus their rise in the polls.  

The PCs, if they lose will have some hard questions to ask as this will be the 4th time they've blown a lead although unlike the past three times, this was the first time they had a double digit lead.  I suspect things will get ugly at first, but the party needs to go through this pain and in the long run weed out the more right wing elements which are just a drag on the party.  Maybe a loss in such ideal conditions will be enough to finally wake up the grassroots that Red Toryism is the only way forward if they ever want to form government again.

For the Liberals, its now try to save the furniture so they have a chance to rebuild post election.  If they can get in the double digit in seats (not likely), I think they will someday once again form government, but if they fall to single digits or worse zero seats, they will likely never form government again and as such future elections will be fought between PCs and NDP.  Their best hope is NDP keeps good on its PR promise as at least that will allow them to stay relevant and if they return to the centre they could even become the kingmaker in future elections in deciding whether NDP or PCs form government.

If Ontario elections became PC vs. NDP races, I wonder who would take most of what would be left of the Liberal vote.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

If that were to happen - do not count chickens etc - then the pattern would not be uniform.

[ON Progressive]

If that were to happen - do not count chickens etc - then the pattern would not be uniform.

Yeah, I don't think it'll happen. There are other provinces that have conservative vs. NDP races, but they are all in the West, where Liberals are irrelevant at the federal level too.

I do think it wouldn't be uniform too. Lots of Liberal voters consider themselves too rich to vote NDP.

[Hatman 🍁]

t if they fall to single digits or worse zero seats, they will likely never form government again and as such future elections will be fought between PCs and NDP.  

This is a very, very false prediction.