Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[Person Man]

https://twitter.com/phildstewart/status/1498060945070956551

Expected to be honest. No one in their right mind would invest in Russia for the foreseeable future, so why not stop existing investors from liquidating...

And now no one ever will.

[thumb21]

Nice job, Putin.

https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1498035056174149640

With a graph:

Source: https://ratinggroup.ua/en/research/ukraine/obschenacionalnyy_opros_ukraina_v_usloviyah_voyny_26-27_fevralya_2022_goda.html

[Buffalo Mayor Young Kim]

Emerging market currencies down 2%. RUB crashed below 110.  Russian banks raise mortgage rates by 4% in anticipation of rising credit issues and inflation.  So far the shock is about the same or a bit less than the late 2014 shock but this is just the beginning.

Only 2014?! That’s awful, no?

The markets are not fully open. FX trade as I said is very very light. The ruble is not one of the main traded pairs anyways. Equity markets fell as much as 40% on Friday in Moscow. There will be more to come.

Could this become a legitimate humanitarian crisis?

Russia has enough farmland to feed its people and enough oil to keep the lights on. It's not going to be a humanitarian crisis, but it is going to be a early 2010s Greece speedrun within a week.

can’t csto and China prop them up?

Would they bother?

Russia is useful to China mostly as a big ole oil field and a military that menaces and distracts the west. A ruined Russia means cheaper gas and North Korea proves you don’t need much of an economy to do the later.

[It’s so Joever]

Nice job, Putin.

https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1498035056174149640

With a graph:

Source: https://ratinggroup.ua/en/research/ukraine/obschenacionalnyy_opros_ukraina_v_usloviyah_voyny_26-27_fevralya_2022_goda.html

Breaking News: After seeing this poll, Joe Biden is now reportedly making a deal with Putin to get him to try and invade Alaska.

[Helsinkian]

Retired Gen. Philip Breedlove on a no-fly zone. He supports it, but finds it unlikely to happen. Breedlove was Supreme Allied Commander Europe 2013-2016.

https://twitter.com/ak_mack/status/1498081883149807621

[It’s so Joever]

Retired Gen. Philip Breedlove on a no-fly zone. He supports it, but finds it unlikely to happen. Breedlove was Supreme Allied Commander Europe 2013-2016.

https://twitter.com/ak_mack/status/1498081883149807621

BASED

[Buffalo Mayor Young Kim]

Retired Gen. Philip Breedlove on a no-fly zone. He supports it, but finds it unlikely to happen. Breedlove was Supreme Allied Commander Europe 2013-2016.

https://twitter.com/ak_mack/status/1498081883149807621

Wouldn’t an NFZ mean conventional fighting between NATO and Russian forces?
I want to do everything for Ukraine, but the risk of nuclear escalation from that is too great.

[Person Man]

Retired Gen. Philip Breedlove on a no-fly zone. He supports it, but finds it unlikely to happen. Breedlove was Supreme Allied Commander Europe 2013-2016.

https://twitter.com/ak_mack/status/1498081883149807621

Wouldn’t an NFZ mean conventional fighting between NATO and Russian forces?
I want to do everything for Ukraine, but the risk of nuclear escalation from that is too great.

I’m open to calling the nuclear bluff.

[Storr]

"Democracy" at work, isn't it beautiful?: https://twitter.com/BNONews/status/1498084587611865090?s=20&t=RKW6Z2mN0hYjFQ...

[Buffalo Mayor Young Kim]

https://twitter.com/HegelwCrmCheese/status/1497988266531950592

We could use a laugh

[OSR stands with Israel]

is this true:

https://twitter.com/sotiridi/status/1498080359195586567?s=20&t=pXLJQPXwtPHEn...

[Flyersfan232]

Emerging market currencies down 2%. RUB crashed below 110.  Russian banks raise mortgage rates by 4% in anticipation of rising credit issues and inflation.  So far the shock is about the same or a bit less than the late 2014 shock but this is just the beginning.

Only 2014?! That’s awful, no?

The markets are not fully open. FX trade as I said is very very light. The ruble is not one of the main traded pairs anyways. Equity markets fell as much as 40% on Friday in Moscow. There will be more to come.

Could this become a legitimate humanitarian crisis?

Russia has enough farmland to feed its people and enough oil to keep the lights on. It's not going to be a humanitarian crisis, but it is going to be a early 2010s Greece speedrun within a week.

can’t csto and China prop them up?

Would they bother?

Russia is useful to China mostly as a big ole oil field and a military that menaces and distracts the west. A ruined Russia means cheaper gas and North Korea proves you don’t need much of an economy to do the later.

Russia isn’t North Korea though

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Emerging market currencies down 2%. RUB crashed below 110.  Russian banks raise mortgage rates by 4% in anticipation of rising credit issues and inflation.  So far the shock is about the same or a bit less than the late 2014 shock but this is just the beginning.

Only 2014?! That’s awful, no?

The markets are not fully open. FX trade as I said is very very light. The ruble is not one of the main traded pairs anyways. Equity markets fell as much as 40% on Friday in Moscow. There will be more to come.

Could this become a legitimate humanitarian crisis?

Russia has enough farmland to feed its people and enough oil to keep the lights on. It's not going to be a humanitarian crisis, but it is going to be a early 2010s Greece speedrun within a week.

can’t csto and China prop them up?

Would they bother?

Russia is useful to China mostly as a big ole oil field and a military that menaces and distracts the west. A ruined Russia means cheaper gas and North Korea proves you don’t need much of an economy to do the later.

Russia needs China more than China needs Russia. China has the luxury to be quasi-neutral in Russia's conflicts, while Russia, in most median scenarios, probably can't afford to be neutral in China's (though specifics would matter a lot).

[Storr]

is this true:

https://twitter.com/sotiridi/status/1498080359195586567?s=20&t=pXLJQPXwtPHEn...

Big if true. That's such a large step of escalation, I'm going to be safe and remain skeptical until there's confirmation.

[Flyersfan232]

If h try I gave go south Hungary should sezies control of trancarparthia

[brucejoel99]

Retired Gen. Philip Breedlove on a no-fly zone. He supports it, but finds it unlikely to happen. Breedlove was Supreme Allied Commander Europe 2013-2016.

https://twitter.com/ak_mack/status/1498081883149807621

Wouldn’t an NFZ mean conventional fighting between NATO and Russian forces?
I want to do everything for Ukraine, but the risk of nuclear escalation from that is too great.

I’m open to calling the nuclear bluff.

Bruh:

https://twitter.com/McFaul/status/1498065915665022983

[Zinneke]

I feel we're doing too much too soon and should see how Putin escalates before litterally having EU fighter jets take on Russian ones. He is either gonna back track or there will be a very dangerous precipice we are heading over to.

If h try I gave go south Hungary should sezies control of trancarparthia

Stop drinking and posting.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Retired Gen. Philip Breedlove on a no-fly zone. He supports it, but finds it unlikely to happen. Breedlove was Supreme Allied Commander Europe 2013-2016.

https://twitter.com/ak_mack/status/1498081883149807621

Wouldn’t an NFZ mean conventional fighting between NATO and Russian forces?
I want to do everything for Ukraine, but the risk of nuclear escalation from that is too great.

I’m open to calling the nuclear bluff.

Bruh:

https://twitter.com/McFaul/status/1498065915665022983

The Military should get rid of Putin and withdraw from Ukraine

[GeneralMacArthur]

American intel has been absolutely elite so far in this war, I trust them to know exactly what's going on in Russia and know which buttons we need to press to end the war and (hopefully) get Putin fragged.

[Person Man]

American intel has been absolutely elite so far in this war, I trust them to know exactly what's going on in Russia and know which buttons we need to press to end the war and (hopefully) get Putin fragged.

Our foreign policy and intelligence apparatus has had its best year in decades.

[Storr]

Historic speech by Olaf Scholz. Germany completely changes its defense policy. It sounded like he would invest 100 billion EURO right here and now in military equipment and from now on spend at least 2% of GDP yearly on defense. This will furthermore have a ripple effect in that other NATO countries - like my own - have been hiding behind Germany in not spending the 2%. That will almost certainly change now.

This could actually be a real turning point. It could also signal a new world order where democratic Europe rises from the pathetic depence on the United States.

lol okay so even Die Linke applauded Scholz's announcement. DIE LINKE. They also admitted openly in their parliamentary speech that they never expected Russia to do this, and how they were wrong on Russia. Putin has so catastrophically f**ked up.

Also, just to add some more details to this announcement:

- the annual defense budget will be increased to 2% of GDP, or approximately an additional 22 billion EUR per year, by 2024
- 100 billion EUR to be invested in R&D, equipment, ammunition, upgrades etc. mostly to ensure that the effect of the budget does no longer translate to obsolete gear.
- to put this into perspective, the Bundeswehr in 2021 budgeted 10 billion on equipment procurement and R&D, with a total budget of 47 billion
- NordStream 2 is dead
- Germany will directly arm Ukraine
- European military production will be invested in, in order to become more independent. Heavy cooperation with France is expected
- investing in LNG shipping terminals to diversify away from Russian gas

God bless twitter:
https://twitter.com/mi_stad/status/1498045611454742543?s=20&t=gGUubFljn1uowS...

[Buffalo Mayor Young Kim]

American intel has been absolutely elite so far in this war, I trust them to know exactly what's going on in Russia and know which buttons we need to press to end the war and (hopefully) get Putin fragged.

Our foreign intelligence apparatus was build to monitor the Soviets.

They might struggle with Middle Eastern militias, but they are really damn good at spying on Russians.

[brucejoel99]

Ret. Gen. Wesley Clark just told CNN that there'll inevitably be a point where Biden will reconsider America's "no military intervention" position, which makes sense: Russia has generally been using significantly less artillery than would typically accompany their operations, but heavy artillery barrages will result in thousands upon thousands of civilian casualties, so if Putin becomes desperate enough & gets to that point, then the U.S. will likely be forced to start weighing intervention.

[Dereich]

American intel has been absolutely elite so far in this war, I trust them to know exactly what's going on in Russia and know which buttons we need to press to end the war and (hopefully) get Putin fragged.

Our foreign policy and intelligence apparatus has had its best year in decades.

It shouldn't be surprising that the US intelligence establishment is better on Russia than anywhere else. Finally we get a benefit from them not sufficiently moving on from the Cold War focus on the Soviets.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

American intel has been absolutely elite so far in this war, I trust them to know exactly what's going on in Russia and know which buttons we need to press to end the war and (hopefully) get Putin fragged.

Our foreign policy and intelligence apparatus has had its best year in decades.

Tbf, it wasn't hard to top 2021, and it's not too common our opponents mess up like this.
But General MacArthur is exactly right, in that the intelligence community has handled this very well thus far. It looks as though the Russians aren't even trying to do things in secret, which might had made sense at the time, but could bite them in back badly now.

Moving ahead, Russia's hand looks potentially weakened enough that they might be forced into a compromise deal that entrenches the status quo in Eastern Europe, at best (for them). Finlandized Ukraine with NATO and EU membership on the table? It's not like Biden doesn't have experience working with the Russians, if the Obama administration is anything to go by.

Important to note though, this might be wishful thinking.